Author Topic: 2023 Won-Lost Record Prediction (Read 3509 times)

Mattionals · « **Reply #75:** August 30, 2023, 02:11:32 PM »

Quote from: captkirk42 on August 30, 2023, 01:29:06 PM

Looks like we will finish a bit better than most here thought. The loss column could technically still get to 100 IF we lose ALL the remaining games.

We most likely will still have a losing season, but the question is can we keep ahead of the Mets til the end of the season? I think so but it looks a little too close for comfort.

So, I went onto Fangraphs to see the projected standings for the rest of the year. Fangraphs has the Mets finishing ahead of the Nats, with the Mets going 15-14 for the rest of the season versus the Nats going 12-17. Here is the who both of those teams play:

Nats:

Blue Jays (1 away)
Marlins (3 home)
Mets (2 home)
Dodgers (3 home)
Pirates (4 away)
Brewers (3 away)
White Sox (3 home)
Braves (4 home, 3 away)
Orioles (2 away)

Mets:

Rangers (1 home)
Mariners (3 home)
Nats (2 away)
Twins (3 away)
Diamondbacks (4 home)
Reds (3 home)
Marlins (3 away, 3 home)
Phillies (4 away, 3 home)

I have no clue how the Mets win 15 of those games.

welch · « **Reply #76:** August 30, 2023, 06:05:18 PM »

Quote from: Mattionals on August 30, 2023, 02:11:32 PM

So, I went onto Fangraphs to see the projected standings for the rest of the year. Fangraphs has the Mets finishing ahead of the Nats, with the Mets going 15-14 for the rest of the season versus the Nats going 12-17. Here is the who both of those teams play:

Nats:

Blue Jays (1 away)
Marlins (3 home)
Mets (2 home)
Dodgers (3 home)
Pirates (4 away)
Brewers (3 away)
White Sox (3 home)
Braves (4 home, 3 away)
Orioles (2 away)

Mets:

Rangers (1 home)
Mariners (3 home)
Nats (2 away)
Twins (3 away)
Diamondbacks (4 home)
Reds (3 home)
Marlins (3 away, 3 home)
Phillies (4 away, 3 home)

I have no clue how the Mets win 15 of those games.

Fangraphs loves the Mets. Their "experts" are still burning because the Mets collapsed, collapsed so far that ownership told Max (and the world) that they will not bid for star free agents this year.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #77:** August 30, 2023, 07:09:19 PM »

Quote from: welch on August 30, 2023, 06:05:18 PM

Fangraphs loves the Mets. Their "experts" are still burning because the Mets collapsed, collapsed so far that ownership told Max (and the world) that they will not bid for star free agents this year.

Baseball Referebce has the Nats at 0.1 percent and the Mets at less than one percent. Makes a bit more sense given the way they have been playing and the schedules.

aspenbubba · « **Reply #78:** September 01, 2023, 07:26:28 AM »

I’m not sure where to put this and I didn’t want to start a new topic especially if my premonitions are wrong. I’m really concerned that the past two months are an abberation and the present teams performance is who they really are. My basis is the last few weeks performance and wins were not how well we played but rather how poorly the Marlins and Yankees played. The lack of offense is very concerning as Thomas , Abrams , Adams have not been hitting coupled with Dom Smiths useless contributions on offense. Ruiz continues to hit as does Joey.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #79:** September 01, 2023, 11:00:05 AM »

I am less concerned about some of the names you mention than I am about Abrams. Thomas's slump was more July than August. He's not performing at Lane Thomas Superstar levels, but his August looks sustainable as an average level guy with some power. I am more concerned about Abrams, who seems to have unlearned some of the impressive habits he had when he first took over leadoff. Walks have disappeared (none since the middle of the month) - there's more in the Abrams thread. I'd be very tempted to drop him out of leadoff and put Thomas there to see if Thomas picks up again. Adams is just a backup, and we have catching depth. Of the guys you named, I'm only concerned about Abrams.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #80:** September 03, 2023, 09:47:59 AM »

moved ##78 & 79 back here.

imref · « **Reply #81:** September 14, 2023, 06:57:44 PM »

65-82, 15 games to go.

Can we get to 70 wins?

welch · « **Reply #82:** September 14, 2023, 07:41:36 PM »

Quote from: imref on September 14, 2023, 06:57:44 PM

65-82, 15 games to go.

Can we get to 70 wins?

I don't think so. Maybe 2 out of 3 from the White Sox, but can they win a game or two from the Braves and Orioles? Maybe if those team rest their starters because they have already clinched ALE and NLE...

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #83:** September 14, 2023, 08:18:01 PM »

What are there, 5 series left? Take 1 game each series.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #84:** September 17, 2023, 06:07:07 PM »

Quote from: comish4lif on March 26, 2023, 09:16:59 PM

66-96
Bad, but not as bad as expected.

Quote from: imref on March 26, 2023, 05:09:21 PM

67-95

Quote from: IanRubbish on March 26, 2023, 10:14:15 PM

68-94

The offense will be about the same as last year, but I expect some improvement in pitching and defense. I'll go with 600 runs scored, 740 against, and 2-3 games extra luck to get to 68 wins.

Lessening the pain will be low scores and the pitch clock which should keep a lot of games in the 2-2.5 hour range.

Quote from: nobleisthyname on March 27, 2023, 11:02:02 AM

I'll take the 69-93. Basically same reasoning as IanRubbish but 67 and 68 wins were already taken.

Quote from: zimm_da_kid on March 26, 2023, 05:31:33 PM

71-91

the next few predictions for record.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #85:** September 17, 2023, 06:08:42 PM »

Quote from: DPMOmaha on March 30, 2023, 11:16:06 AM

73-89

Quote from: nats2playoffs on March 30, 2023, 12:53:39 PM

74-88

I've never done one of these predictions, ever.

The Shiners.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #86:** September 17, 2023, 06:20:26 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 26, 2023, 04:58:17 PM

I was going to go with that. But will go one higher. 66-96. They should benefit a bit from not having to play the NL East big three so much but both the starting pitching and hitting look rough.

Hey didn’t forget me. Now rooting for no wins rest of the season. What do I win?

Five Banners · « **Reply #87:** September 17, 2023, 06:26:38 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 17, 2023, 06:20:26 PM

Hey didn’t forget me. Now rooting for no wins rest of the season. What do I win?

A free drink from the waters of the mighty Anacostia

welch · « **Reply #88:** September 17, 2023, 06:56:13 PM »

The Nats are at 66 wins this evening. They can take 2 of 3 from Chicago. That puts them at 68 wins. Maybe one from the Braves.

nfotiu · « **Reply #89:** September 17, 2023, 07:29:42 PM »

Quote from: welch on September 17, 2023, 06:56:13 PM

The Nats are at 66 wins this evening. They can take 2 of 3 from Chicago. That puts them at 68 wins. Maybe one from the Braves.

I can see them going 4-3 for the last 7 against the Braves. They have almost nothing to play for now, and should have nothing for the last series.

I'd bet on them going about .500 the rest of the way for 72 wins.

aspenbubba · « **Reply #90:** September 17, 2023, 08:01:53 PM »

Quote from: welch on September 17, 2023, 06:56:13 PM

The Nats are at 66 wins this evening. They can take 2 of 3 from Chicago. That puts them at 68 wins. Maybe one from the Braves.

They have 12 games left. They need 4 wins for a respectable 70 win season. They could take 2 from Chicago and 2 of 7 from the Braves and lose both to the O’s. Still a 15 game improvement. Not sure if the reinforcements will arrive and push them close to .500 as most will spend at least 3-4 months in Harrisburg next season as I don’t see any advantage of them moving up to Rochester unless they are blocked by some vets playing well on the Nats.