Lets create the WNFF Top 30 Prospect List

[HalfSmokes]

Im not sure how anyone would even question this.

Nothing is 100% but it's pretty obvious that the international guys are much more riskier. For starters, you're signing kids at 16 most of the time. That in itself makes it much riskier than drafting an 18+ in the draft. 75% of the latin kids signed never even make it stateside.

More specifically, we're talking about shelling out big bucks on the international market. We sign kids. We just don't sign the big name, big money guys. So that's the argument. We;re not spending enough on those kids. And those are the ones that are the riskiest. Prices have gotten so out of wack - $5mill for a 16 year old? The type of money that is spent on those kids equates to that of first round picks, a lot of times, top ten prices. And they don't pan out. I havent seen a study but Id be surprised if more than 10% of those kids ever made it to the bigs.

Id much rather spend $2mill on a kid via the draft than $2mill on an international kid. I know $2mill isn't necessarily what everyone is asking for - but we have signed a couple kids in the past for six figures, so we do go after some. We just don't approach the seven figure deals very often. Id like to see more guys in the low six figures signed, but its not a big deal. If we're acquiring the prospects in the draft and paying them to come into the system, Im just fine with it.

for this team $5 million equates to a third rounder, for the most part you can get talent cheaper in the DR than through the draft, and if we're talking about a few hundred  thousand (which still lands top flight talent over there), what's the success rate of guys in the draft with those kinds of bonuses?

[RD]

for this team $5 million equates to a third rounder, for the most part you can get talent cheaper in the DR than through the draft, and if we're talking about a few hundred  thousand (which still lands top flight talent over there), what's the success rate of guys in the draft with those kinds of bonuses?

Signing International free agents is not cheaper. You can sign a 16 year old for $5 grand and he could become a very good player and that rarely happens stateside(signing an eventual prospect for that price, not the 16 year old). But we make those signings. We make plenty of the 'lesser' signings. So this entire debate is about spending bigger money, six figure/seven figure type of money.

And those types of signings are definitely more expensive than american signings. We've signed at least 4 guys to six figure deals in recent years. Raudy Read, Randy Novas, Jean Carlos Valdez, and Cleto Brazoban(who has fallen off the face of the earth). Certainly, I would agree we could sign a few more of the $100-300K kind of guys. Im just not in favor of approaching the seven figure deals. Those are way out of wack and just ridiculous.

Heres an article on the comparison. Its based on a lot of assumptions but talks about it. Just throwing it out there to read, not as any type of fact or anything.

The one thing I definitely disagree with is how they make the average price comparison of the top 300 guys. The low end international guys on that list probably get what 35th round college guys get. Id say the 275th guy on the international list gets about 10 grand, maybe 20. In the draft, that player is going to get right around $100K. So the low end guys on their lists definitely skew the numbers.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12251/is-latin-talent-overpriced

Here is a link to the top international bonuses of all time:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html

That list is before this season, but this years money shreds that list. Anyway, looking at that list, while half of them are recent signings and unfair to really count yet, only one guy on that list has proven worth the money. Miguel Cabrera signed for just under $2mill and has made that look like a steal. The rest of the guys before 2008, never amounted to much. Wily Mo Pena, flop. Chin Hui Tsao, flop. Joel Guzman, flop. Even the top guy on that list, Michael Ynoa, signed for over $4mill. In the 3 years since, he's only pitched 9 innings stateside and is out with Tommy John. While he's still got a lot of time before he's labeled a bust, they haven't gotten any type of return on the kid since they signed him.

So I would agree we could kick up our international efforts a bit, I dont think its worth signing them to huge deals. Id rather be the highest spending team in the draft and middle of the pack on international signings. While we definitely need to make improvements to be middle of the pack from our current state, I dont have any problems with what the team has done in terms of building up our minor league system. It's looking damn good in a short couple years. Im happy with that.

[JMUalumni]

So I would agree we could kick up our international efforts a bit, I dont think its worth signing them to huge deals. Id rather be the highest spending team in the draft and middle of the pack on international signings. While we definitely need to make improvements to be middle of the pack from our current state, I dont have any problems with what the team has done in terms of building up our minor league system. It's looking damn good in a short couple years. Im happy with that.

I don't disagree.  IFAs represent a much longer term view of the minor league system and while the system has certainly moved towards the top of the list, the international moves by the Nats represent the distance they still have to go.  But, sure, I would take top of the class in draft signings and middle of the pack in IFAs any day.

[HalfSmokes]

Signing International free agents is not cheaper. You can sign a 16 year old for $5 grand and he could become a very good player and that rarely happens stateside(signing an eventual prospect for that price, not the 16 year old). But we make those signings. We make plenty of the 'lesser' signings. So this entire debate is about spending bigger money, six figure/seven figure type of money.

And those types of signings are definitely more expensive than american signings. We've signed at least 4 guys to six figure deals in recent years. Raudy Read, Randy Novas, Jean Carlos Valdez, and Cleto Brazoban(who has fallen off the face of the earth). Certainly, I would agree we could sign a few more of the $100-300K kind of guys. Im just not in favor of approaching the seven figure deals. Those are way out of wack and just ridiculous.

Heres an article on the comparison. Its based on a lot of assumptions but talks about it. Just throwing it out there to read, not as any type of fact or anything.

The one thing I definitely disagree with is how they make the average price comparison of the top 300 guys. The low end international guys on that list probably get what 35th round college guys get. Id say the 275th guy on the international list gets about 10 grand, maybe 20. In the draft, that player is going to get right around $100K. So the low end guys on their lists definitely skew the numbers.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/12251/is-latin-talent-overpriced

Here is a link to the top international bonuses of all time:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html

That list is before this season, but this years money shreds that list. Anyway, looking at that list, while half of them are recent signings and unfair to really count yet, only one guy on that list has proven worth the money. Miguel Cabrera signed for just under $2mill and has made that look like a steal. The rest of the guys before 2008, never amounted to much. Wily Mo Pena, flop. Chin Hui Tsao, flop. Joel Guzman, flop. Even the top guy on that list, Michael Ynoa, signed for over $4mill. In the 3 years since, he's only pitched 9 innings stateside and is out with Tommy John. While he's still got a lot of time before he's labeled a bust, they haven't gotten any type of return on the kid since they signed him.

So I would agree we could kick up our international efforts a bit, I dont think its worth signing them to huge deals. Id rather be the highest spending team in the draft and middle of the pack on international signings. While we definitely need to make improvements to be middle of the pack from our current state, I dont have any problems with what the team has done in terms of building up our minor league system. It's looking damn good in a short couple years. Im happy with that.

International is about quantity- who knows what a 16 year old will turn into, but if you get enough of them, you'll hit a home run on a few. I don't want us spending millions per signing, but I would like an international presence- look at the top systems an you see an international presence. A team that routinely finishes in last place needs all the help it can get, and I don't like to see us punting on the Dominican

[PatsNats28]

Nats should get ahead of the curve and recruit in India

[JMUalumni]

Nats should get ahead of the curve and recruit in India

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573653

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573652

[RD]

International is about quantity- who knows what a 16 year old will turn into, but if you get enough of them, you'll hit a home run on a few. I don't want us spending millions per signing, but I would like an international presence- look at the top systems an you see an international presence. A team that routinely finishes in last place needs all the help it can get, and I don't like to see us punting on the Dominican

I agree about quantity. But we did sign 16 teenagers last year. We just hear about them later than other teams. I think 15-20 is a fine amount. We know of 2 6 figure guys from last year. I dont know what they paid for the rest, but if we bumped it up to 4/5 6 figure guys with 10-15 lesser guys, Im perfectly fine with that. I just think the teams paying $5mill, $2mill is way over the top. It's just way too much money for guys that really have a poor track record of developing.

[PatsNats28]

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573653

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=573652

Yeah I heard of them, but rather than competing with the Yanks and the Sox, we're competing with the Pirates