Follow the Prospects: Elijah Green, OF

[IanRubbish]

Eight was a bit of an exaggeration.  I don't think there is much of a chance of him getting it together. But he is only 20. Maybe it still happens.

A year ago a lot of people were ready to give up on Brady House.  Issue with Green is his approach in incompatible with the Darnell Coles swing at everything strategy that has permeated the org.  Plenty of time for him to fix things though he'd likely to do better somewhere else.

[Slateman]

I'd say Green's approach is perfectly aligned with Cole's philosophy.

Green was always high risk. He always had a ton of swing and miss.

[welch]

Hassell and Green are players to watch this season. If they start to hit, then the Nats will have a crew of fine young players.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'd say Green's approach is perfectly aligned with Cole's philosophy.

Green was always high risk. He always had a ton of swing and miss.

well, Cole's approach is to sacrifice power for contact. With Green, I suppose the ball is going out if he makes contact, so maybe there's a match.

[Slateman]

well, Cole's approach is to sacrifice power for contact. With Green, I suppose the ball is going out if he makes contact, so maybe there's a match.

Cole's philosophy is just swing. Green is great at that.

[imref]

mashing: https://x.com/Nats_PlayerDev/status/1770857489543627172?s=20

[rileyn]

What is the latest with Green?  Does he still have a chance, or is he flushed?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What is the latest with Green?  Does he still have a chance, or is he flushed?

I think you can see this spring that nobody wants to write him off, but nothing has changed in terms of the contact issues until he shows it in the minors

[imref]

here's the latest scouting report from milb.com. I assume he starts at Wilmington.

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 50

The son of former Pro Bowl tight end Eric Green was MLB Pipeline’s No. 3 Draft prospect in 2022 because of a multi-tooled, high-ceiling profile he built at IMG Academy and various stops of the showcase circuit. The Nationals selected him fifth overall and signed him for slot at $6.5 million, hoping he could be the club’s next homegrown superstar. The right-handed slugger’s first full season, however, was a rough one. His 41.6 percent strikeout was fourth-highest among Minor Leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances, while walks and power helped him salvage a .218/.336/.327 line. He was limited to 75 games at Single-A Fredericksburg due to a midseason wrist issue.

The Nats have cautioned anyone who would listen not to give up on Green because of just how loud four out of his five tools have been. He’ll pop the occasional exit velocity north of 110 mph because of his quick wrists and immense strength, and he can drive the ball to all fields when he gets the barrel on the ball. Green also makes 70-grade speed look easy on the basepaths -- he stole 30 bags in 2023 -- and he can track down balls all over center field. What’s more, he has a strong arm out there, registering seven outfield assists in 71 defensive starts from the grass.

So much comes down to the right-handed slugger’s bat. Green can struggle with pitch recognition -- from missing on pitches outside the zone to sitting on hittable pitches inside it -- and he’s been off-kilter in his directionality at the plate, hurting his ability to make contact. Considering Green would be entering his sophomore year had he gone to school, there is time to correct the mistakes, but the climb to superstardom is a lot more uphill now than on Draft Day.

[nobleisthyname]

2023 / 2024 Spring Training Recap

Age: 20
Team rank: 6
Current level: A

2023 (2 levels): .218/.336/.327 .663 OPS, 5 HR, 31 SB (360 PA)
2023 position (games played): 75 CF, 2 RF

2024 Spring Training: .000/.333/.000 .333 OPS, 0 HR, 0 SB (6 PA)

Even more so than for Wood, K% is the main issue for Green who is plus or plus-plus in every tool except for hitting and posted a 42% K% last season, among the worst across all the minor leagues.

[imref]

1-3, 2Ks, BB tonight in his debut (batting 3rd).

[imref]

First home run tonight for Fredricksburg. They've had him hitting in the 3-slot. OPS is .907 right now.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

First home run tonight for Fredricksburg. They've had him hitting in the 3-slot. OPS is .907 right now.

striking out nearly 50% of the time. it's 23 PAs so that's not meaningful either.

[Smithian]

striking out nearly 50% of the time. it's 23 PAs so that's not meaningful either.

Don't dismiss signs of life quite yet. We need the hope.

[zimm_da_kid]

New personal best Sunday.  0-6 with 5 Ks.  Up to 41 K in 74 AB

[aspenbubba]

New personal best Sunday.  0-6 with 5 Ks.  Up to 41 K in 74 AB

This is a BUST and I predicted that he would only have a cup of coffee in AA. I over estimated and he only gets to Wilmington.

[imref]

Just awful

[nobleisthyname]

I know baseball draft picks bust generally as a rule, but how common is it for a top-5 pick to fail to reach AA?

[imref]

I know baseball draft picks bust generally as a rule, but how common is it for a top-5 pick to fail to reach AA?

It's pretty rare. I went back and looked at the top 5 from draft classes from 2019 onward:
- 2019 - everyone has made the majors already
- 2020 - Asa Lacy, pitcher from the Royals who has had injury issues, is the only one not in the majors
- 2021 - 3 of the 5 are in the majors

Looking at Green's 2022 class:
1. Jackson Holliday - AAA and already has been in the majors
2. Druw Jones - currently playing at A after missing 2022 for surgery on a torn labrum, played rookie and A ball in 2023
3. Kumar Rocker - Pitched at High-A in 2023 before heading for TJ
4. Termarr Johnson - Currently at A+
5. Green
6. Jacob Berry - currently at AA
7. Cade Horton - currently at AA

[Smithian]

In defense of this draft pick, I think we all knew the low floor was a risk. But with the #5 pick, the decision to draft a kid built like a football player with the potential to be a 40-40 player with elite defense was the smart move.

The ceiling was too great to pass on. And it isn't like it was a shock pick. He was drafted for his ceiling, not his probability of making it to the MLB.

I'm not closing the book on him quite yet, but I am worried. I almost wonder if they need to put him on the phantom injury list and send him to Florida to reset. This is just sad.

[nobleisthyname]

Age: 20
Team rank: 6
Current level: A

April recap
Games played at position
CF: 19
DH: 1

PA

|

AVG

|

OBP

|

SLG

|

HR

|

SB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

ISO

|

OPS

|

wRC+

91

|

.179

|

.289

|

.308

|

2

|

7

|

47.3%

|

12.1%

|

.128

|

.597

|

82

[Smithian]

Age: 20
Team rank: 6
Current level: A

April recap
Games played at position
CF: 19
DH: 1

PA

|

AVG

|

OBP

|

SLG

|

HR

|

SB

|

K%

|

BB%

|

ISO

|

OPS

|

wRC+

91

|

.179

|

.289

|

.308

|

2

|

7

|

47.3%

|

12.1%

|

.128

|

.597

|

82

Seven steals? Is he an auto steal every time he gets on?

[nobleisthyname]

Seven steals? Is he an auto steal every time he gets on?

He's basically 80 grade everything except his hit tool which is 20.

[imref]

hit his 2nd home run last night.

[imref]

Just hit #3