Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2024

[blue911]

Won't make it for a cup of coffee in Harrisburg.

He just isn’t a prospect. He’s a project- Can the Nats turn an incredibly athletic young man into a major leaguer? 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He just isn’t a prospect. He’s a project- Can the Nats turn an incredibly athletic young man into a major leaguer? 

when does he try football?

[blue911]

when does he try football?

I’m thinking 2026.

[Senatorswin]

I was just looking at the Bleacher report  minor leagues ranking after the season ended dated September 30. The Nats dropped in the rankings from 6th to 13th mainly due to Hassell III and Green stinking it up. It says one to watch is Travis Sykora with his 101 mph fastball and swing-and-miss secondary pitches in a splitter and slider.

Even after the Padres traded so many of their prospects to the Nats, their minor league is still ranked higher than the Nats at 11.

[imref]

https://nationalsprospects.com/2023/12/the-2024-nationalsprospects-com-watchlist/

[Slateman]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-farm-system-statcast-hitting-rankings/

28/30 on the statcast hitting performance

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-farm-system-statcast-hitting-rankings/

28/30 on the statcast hitting performance

Not surprising. Other than Wood, our studs like House did not light it up power-wise last year. Morales had no homers. Lots of Ks, too.

[blue911]

Not surprising. Other than Wood, our studs like House did not light it up power-wise last year. Morales had no homers. Lots of Ks, too.

I think it’s because outside of House and Wood, nobody put up strong full season numbers.

[imref]

BBA top 100 is out:
- Crews #6
- Wood #11
- House #55

[IanRubbish]

BBA top 100 is out:
- Crews #6
- Wood #11
- House #55

Seems reasonable, but Nick Senzel was #10 in 2019, Victor Robles was #11 that year. 

In 2019, FanGraphs had Robles #5, Senzel #7, Keibert Ruiz #15, Carter Kieboom #18, MacKenzie Gore #22.  In 2021, CJ Abrams was #6, Josiah Gray #29. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Seems reasonable, but Nick Senzel was #10 in 2019, Victor Robles was #11 that year. 

In 2019, FanGraphs had Robles #5, Senzel #7, Keibert Ruiz #15, Carter Kieboom #18, MacKenzie Gore #22.  In 2021, CJ Abrams was #6, Josiah Gray #29. 

while a lot of those guys are cautionary tales, Crews is a little different I think in that he's a high floor guy. Didn't most of those guys have flaws coming up?

Keibert is pretty much as advertised, I think. Low K, good plater discipline and contact, with a power issue. I think his D was supposed to be better. Robles and Senzel arrived at the majors and performed, but then collapsed. Robles due to his flaw (swing and miss) and never developing projected power.

[welch]

...and Robles never learned to run the bases, and never learned where to throw after he catches the ball.

[imref]

BA top-30 with analysis:

http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18306

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It gives me a little hope for Green. We just have to recognize the kid is a project, but the Eric Davis tools comp on the power / speed / arm is enough to be patient. He will always struggle with Ks, but if he get his K rate into the 25%-30% range, that could be survivable in a Joey Gallo sort of way.

I'm surprised to see Vaquero so low. Would have thought he'd be #4 / #5 (ahead of Morales and Rutledge), depending on what folks think of Cavalli. OTOH, if we have a #2 and #5 starter on that list, then I am super pleased.

Thinking about that list, I'd say the things to watch on the prospects might be, in order:
1) How well does Cavalli pitch after his injury? A #2 starter makes the whole staff look a lot better.
2) Wood. I feel better about Crews and I think we know what we have in House and Morales, but Wood making more contact will be a key as to whether we have an elite guy (zero to two being the range) for the OF. The power will be there.
3) How many of the top 6 are in the majors in 2024? That tells us about the timeline.

Beyond that, there's always hope or expectation for contributions from Nunez, Young, Millas/Pineda, Herz, perhaps Parker, and I'm guessing Lipscomb is on that list too.

[nobleisthyname]

If Green could get his hit tool to a 40 grade he'd be a star.

[IanRubbish]

while a lot of those guys are cautionary tales, Crews is a little different I think in that he's a high floor guy. Didn't most of those guys have flaws coming up?

Keibert is pretty much as advertised, I think. Low K, good plater discipline and contact, with a power issue. I think his D was supposed to be better. Robles and Senzel arrived at the majors and performed, but then collapsed. Robles due to his flaw (swing and miss) and never developing projected power.

I agree about Crews, but these rankings are often way off in terms of actual MLB production. 

Keibert was the most run on catcher last year with the worst throw out percentage, he has to adjust to the new rules this year or he's not a viable starter at that position.

[imref]

MLB Pipeline top OF prospect list is out:

1. Jackson Chourio, Brewers (2024)
2. Evan Carter, Rangers (2024)
3. Wyatt Langford, Rangers (2024)
4. Dylan Crews, Nationals (2024)
5. Walker Jenkins, Twins (2026)
6. Max Clark, Tigers (2026)
7. James Wood, Nationals (2024)
8. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (2024)
9. Colton Cowser, Orioles (2024)
10. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (2025)

https://www.mlb.com/news/top-outfield-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Crews is the top overall hitting prospect:

Hit: Crews (70)
Last year’s Golden Spikes Award winner did a tremendous job of honing in on the zone in his final spring at LSU, posting a 46/71 K/BB ratio over 71 games that led to a .426 average and .567 OBP. Those numbers would pop anywhere but especially coming from a loaded conference like the SEC. Crews took some lumps at Double-A on the pro side following a long spring and summer but is expected to be back on the fast track toward Washington.

[imref]

And here's the top 3B list with two more Nats checking in:

1. Junior Caminero, Rays (2024)
2. Noelvi Marte, Reds (2024)
3. Colt Keith, Tigers (2024)
4. Coby Mayo, Orioles (2024)
5. Tyler Black, Brewers (2024)
6. Brady House, Nationals (2025)
7. Michael Busch, Cubs (2024)
8. Curtis Mead, Rays (2024)
9. Aidan Miller, Phillies (2027)
10. Yohandy Morales, Nationals (2025)

House is their best fielding prospect in the list.

[Natsinpwc]

Isn’t Morales likely to be a 1B/DH?   Nice to see House is considered a good fielder. 

[imref]

Isn’t Morales likely to be a 1B/DH?   Nice to see House is considered a good fielder. 

House is blocking him at 3rd but YoYo mostly played 3rd this year in the minors and was a 3B in college. He'll shift to 1B/DH at some point.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Keibert was the most run on catcher last year with the worst throw out percentage, he has to adjust to the new rules this year or he's not a viable starter at that position.

IF you say Keibert's 2023 is unacceptable for a starting catcher over the entire length of his contract, then I am not disagreeing. There has to be an improvement if he's going to stick there.

[GataNats]

Again, House is by far our best prospect.  At a premium position.   He will be the first guy up this season

[IanRubbish]

Again, House is by far our best prospect.  At a premium position.   He will be the first guy up this season

He's only 20 and will need to get his whiff rate down before a call up, but would be great to see him sometime this year.  Still seems like we'll see Crews first.

[imref]

House is not a better prospect than Crews.

[Senatorswin]

On the Nats site 30 top prospects they have Wood and Crews slated to arrive this year but House not until 2025.