Author Topic: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!  (Read 5512 times)

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Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #50: September 08, 2008, 11:10:20 AM »
Lots of nice people in Lafayatte, including Luke Montz's family. With hurricanes, you just can't win. But Houston could be a major disaster, and seriously traumatic for Katrina evacuees who never went back.

There never is a good place for them to go.  In 2004, we were hit 3 times in 5 weeks.  I was going to climb into what was left of a black olive tree and do my best "Lieutenant Dan" if another one came along.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #51: September 08, 2008, 12:06:41 PM »
We lost one of our better weathermen in February.  He left because of the emotional strain of the hurricanes.

In 2004, after taking 3 hits, and then Ivan was tracked to hit us as a Cat-5, he lost it.  He broke into tears, said, "I can't do this anymore" and walked off for a while.  He had spent about six weeks straight weeks in the studio, broadcasting to people sitting in the dark, listening on radios, calling in on cell phones, asking questions - many desperate and in a panic -trying to survive.  There was no food, no gas, no shelters, and hundreds of thousands shattered houses, and everyone was asking him to solve everything.   No shame - that would be tough on anyone, and he went above and beyond until he broke.  I think he did an exceptional job under the most difficult of circumstances.

In one of the senior communities, the people had been shut in a dark building without food or water for 10 days before help arrived.  Red Cross was being blocked by one of our state congressmen, Irv Slosberg, who wanted to provide the ice, water and food himself in a photo-op for his "Slosberg Emergency Management Aid" - his own FEMA replacement.  He was soon voted out in an overwhelming defeat - I not sure even he vote for himself.  It was our weatherman that finally found out the cause of the problem and got camera over there so Slosberg would deliver the assistance. 

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #52: September 08, 2008, 03:12:44 PM »
Its hitting Cuba real bad.  Anyone know if NOSPIN has family there?

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #53: September 08, 2008, 04:20:04 PM »
Oh. My. Gosh!  That last paragraph is horrible beyond words!  There should have been criminal charges against him!

I feel bad for your weatherman.  That's sad!

Slosberg start out doing great things, mostly concerning kids and young drivers, but, like so many politicians, lost sight of what is important.  When we moved to Boca from Fairfax, his daughter, Dori, was the second one in the neighborhood to stop by and introduce herself.  She was about 10, it was a couple days after Andrew, and she made me a PB&J.  It was her death on my birthday 3 years later that got him into politics.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #54: September 08, 2008, 05:58:53 PM »
Awww geezzzz!  That's even more terrible!  What happened to her?

Quote
Here is the story of the car accident by Stephen Barr Too Many, Too Fast "How do I look?" Susan Walker's daughter Margaux, 13, was leaning against the kitchen counter in their Boca Raton, Fla., home. It was February 23, 1996, a Friday night, and Margaux was going to the movies at the mall with a friend, Crystal Cordes. Afterward she was going to spend the night at Crystal's house. "You look absolutely beautiful," Susan said, realizing that her daughter was coming into her own as a young woman. The mall was a great place to hang out. Margaux never knew who she might run into. Like many of her friends, she carried a beeper to stay in constant touch with them. At approximately 7:30 p.m., Irv Slosberg stopped in front of the mall and dropped off four teen-age girls: his 14-year-old twin daughters, Dori and Emily, and their two friends, Maribel Farinas and Carolina Gill. The four soon ran into Crystal and Margaux at the movie theater, and all six headed to the bowling alley. There, Nick Copertino, 19, and David Grossman, 17, spotted the girls--one of whom Grossman knew. Then Ryan Rashidian, an acquaintance of the teens, joined the group. Copertino agreed to drop off Ryan at his home and drive the girls to another friend's apartment. Soon seven teens were sardined into his Honda's back seat, designed to hold three passengers. None of the seven could possibly buckle a seat belt. On a six-lane divided highway, Copertino picked up speed. Two of the girls exchanged looks of fear. "Calm down," Margaux said. He began tailgating a car in the right lane, then switched to the left lane, accelerated and shot ahead. Speeding at 85 m.p.h. or more, Copertino lost control of the car, which flew across the concrete median and into oncoming traffic. Hurtling into a two-door Acura containing three people, the Honda went into a violent rotation. The seven teens in the back seat flew out of the shattered rear window. Paramedics found Copertino and Grossman still conscious; seat belts and air bags had saved their lives. The fire department's rescue team pried the three people out of their Acura. They had broken bones that would leave them permanently maimed. The medics found seven others thrown in all directions. They were so young that none of them carried identification. At 8:30 the next morning, Susan Walker opened the newspaper and read about the horrible crash. Five teens had died. "Thank God I didn't get a call," Walker said aloud. As she ate breakfast, though, the phone rang. Walker picked it up. "Have you heard from Margaux?" asked her daughter's friend Ashley. "No," said Walker. "She spent the night at Crystal's house." "Crystal was in an awful car crash last night," Ashley said. "They're still trying to identify the victims." Walker called three hospitals. Finally she learned that Margaux had been taken directly to the morgue. Of the seven in the back seat, only Emily Slosberg and Maribel Farinas survived, both seriously injured. Maribel was left a quadriplegic. In May 1997, Nicholas Copertino was found guilty of manslaughter and later sentenced to 15 years in prison. (He is appealing the verdict.) In any other county in Florida, Copertino might have gotten off with a citation, since the crash did not involve drugs or alcohol. But in 1993, Palm Beach County had started a division dedicated to prosecuting all vehicular deaths. Says assistant state attorney Ellen Roberts, who prosecuted the Copertino case, "Our purpose is to let everybody know that driving at close to 100 miles an hour with seven kids in the back seat is beyond stupidity. It's criminal." Meanwhile, Susan Walker left her job as an attorney to help develop programs for teens on the dangers of reckless driving. She has maintained Margaux's room as her daughter left it, putting her beeper, which medics retrieved from the crash scene, on her unmade bed. Occasionally, when Walker can't sleep at night, she will hear the beeper go off. When a young drivers dies or is seriously injured, everyone looses. It only takes a moment of bad judgment to ruin your life and the lives of those who love you. Please drive safely and enjoy the some of the best years of your life.
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Offline PANatsFan

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #55: September 09, 2008, 11:21:40 AM »
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

Only 1 or 2 out of 6 models have it headed for Houston. Let's hope those are underpopulated areas in Mexico.

Offline CALSGR8

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #56: September 11, 2008, 03:58:36 AM »

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #57: September 11, 2008, 07:38:28 AM »
Another good site for tracking Ike is http://www.stormpulse.com/

You can turn on things, such as wind speed probs in the upper right, click on a city, and it will provide even more specific details.  The models are all pretty close, but are just south of the official track.  This track is about a worst case scenario for Houston, as it would be in or near the eyewall on the strong side of the storm. It would actually be better to take a dead-center hit than this track.  The good news is that the track will likely change between now and tomorrow night, and whatever the change is. it has a 99% chance of being better for Houston.






Offline PANatsFan

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #58: September 11, 2008, 02:38:51 PM »
Quote
Houston-area residents who live near bayous but are not in the ZIP codes under the mandatory evacuation order should use common sense in deciding whether to leave or shelter in place, White said.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/5993388.html

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #59: September 11, 2008, 03:40:11 PM »
I doubt we'll be hearing much from houston-nat.  The city is being evacuated.  Looks like he's either "hunkering down or getting out!"

Houston is the largest city in the US by area - those not by the water are being told to stay put, but those by the bayous are being told to use judgement. The city is criss-crossed by bayous, so it's a bit confusing.

This could be a total disaster or nothing - only time will tell.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #60: September 11, 2008, 04:30:03 PM »
I doubt we'll be hearing much from houston-nat.  The city is being evacuated.  Looks like he's either "hunkering down or getting out!"

He and his neighbors are getting ready, but a few more prayers won't hurt.  The store shelves in San Antonio, which is way inland, were out of water this morning.  He's probably spending much of the day standing in lines.

It's going to be a long night tomorrow.  The noise seems much worse when the storms come at night.  But, it should be daylight when Houston is having its toughest time.

This storm is really weird.  The flight level winds for the hurricane hunters are strong (multiply KT by 1.15 to get approx MPH), the pressure is really low, but the measured surface winds are still the absolute minimum for Cat 1 - drop another mph and it's a TS.  I can understand to some extent their logic for padding the disclosed speed another nearly 25 mph above the measured speed, as the measurements at flight level and the barametrics aren't reconciling with the measured surface winds, and 2 of 3 indicate higher speeds.  If they dropped it to a min Cat-1 and it's not, some people may let their guard down. But, if all the measurements are correct, and Ike stays atypical, that's fine by me.

Quote
WTNT44 KNHC 111506
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65 KT. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY...BUT IKE HAS PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT 945 MB. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR LANDFALL...WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
NHC

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #61: September 11, 2008, 04:50:57 PM »
Yeah, that little caveat about surface winds caught my eye earlier...I'm a bit surprised they came out and said that in a public discussion that lots of people in the affected area are going to read, since as you pointed out, that could lead to some ill-advised complacency.  Well, in any event, it's going to be a crapload of rain. 

  
He and his neighbors are getting ready, but a few more prayers won't hurt.  The store shelves in San Antonio, which is way inland, were out of water this morning.  He's probably spending much of the day standing in lines.

It's going to be a long night tomorrow.  The noise seems much worse when the storms come at night.  But, it should be daylight when Houston is having its toughest time.

This storm is really weird.  The flight level winds for the hurricane hunters are strong (multiply KT by 1.15 to get approx MPH), the pressure is really low, but the measured surface winds are still the absolute minimum for Cat 1 - drop another mph and it's a TS.  I can understand to some extent their logic for padding the disclosed speed another nearly 25 mph above the measured speed, as the measurements at flight level and the barametrics aren't reconciling with the measured surface winds, and 2 of 3 indicate higher speeds.  If they dropped it to a min Cat-1 and it's not, some people may let their guard down. But, if all the measurements are correct, and Ike stays atypical, that's fine by me.
NHC

Offline Senators2005

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #62: September 11, 2008, 07:35:23 PM »
Woah!  My best friend lives in Fort Worth...that thing dumps torrential rain around there and it will be nothing but a swamp of mud, tumbleweed and cacti.   :o

Offline tomterp

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #63: September 11, 2008, 07:38:57 PM »
Woah!  My best friend lives in Fort Worth...that thing dumps torrential rain around there and it will be nothing but a swamp of mud, tumbleweed and cacti.   :o

Don't forget cottonmouths, rattlesnakes, copperheads and coral snakes.  This time of year (brutally hot, dry) any snake with half a brain is laying down in a creek bed, in ambush position for a fish or rodent coming for a drink.  In floods, they get flushed up and out, and can end up anywhere.


Offline Senators2005

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #64: September 11, 2008, 07:40:44 PM »
Don't forget cottonmouths, rattlesnakes, copperheads and coral snakes.  This time of year (brutally hot, dry) any snake with half a brain is laying down in a creek bed, in ambush position for a fish or rodent coming for a drink.  In floods, they get flushed up and out, and can end up anywhere.
YIKES!   :o

Offline tomterp

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #65: September 11, 2008, 07:45:32 PM »
I'm not kidding!  See the picture above (I added it later to my post) of a sign on a trail in Dallas County, next door to Ft. Worth.  All 4 of those species are in this small park, representive of the greater area.

Offline Senators2005

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #66: September 11, 2008, 07:51:23 PM »
I'm not kidding!  See the picture above (I added it later to my post) of a sign on a trail in Dallas County, next door to Ft. Worth.  All 4 of those species are in this small park, representive of the greater area.
Yeah, I knew that Tom...I just hadn't thought about the consequences of a massive flood as you put into light.  I'm not afraid of snakes per se - but lots of poisonous ones floating around en masse would give anybody the willies!

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #67: September 11, 2008, 07:53:39 PM »
Don't forget cottonmouths, rattlesnakes, copperheads and coral snakes.  This time of year (brutally hot, dry) any snake with half a brain is laying down in a creek bed, in ambush position for a fish or rodent coming for a drink.  In floods, they get flushed up and out, and can end up anywhere.



That was a big problem up around Vero Beach after getting 22" from Fay.  There were snakes and gators everywhere.

Houston-Nat has a bayou right in back of his apartment that probably has some critters in it.

Offline tomterp

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #68: September 11, 2008, 07:57:46 PM »
Reminds me why I don't want to live in TX!

Right.  Around here, we have only to deal with the likes of Penny.


Offline tomterp

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #69: September 11, 2008, 08:01:41 PM »
Houston-Nat has a bayou right in back of his apartment that probably has some critters in it.

Big time cottonmouth country.  Down near South Padre Island, there are a lot of rattlesnakes along the barrier islands, in the dunes areas.  Not sure about Houston area, but they probably have them too.  Gators?  No idea, but if they have a few in Dallas, why not?

Offline Senators2005

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #70: September 11, 2008, 08:25:38 PM »
Yeesh...I just almost fell out of my seat!   :o  He looks pissed....prolly a Nats fan.

Offline NatsAddict

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #71: September 11, 2008, 08:59:56 PM »
Tom, that pic reminds of why I'd rather deal with a gator than a snake.   G*d, I hate snakes!

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #72: September 11, 2008, 09:05:52 PM »
Big time cottonmouth country.  Down near South Padre Island, there are a lot of rattlesnakes along the barrier islands, in the dunes areas.  Not sure about Houston area, but they probably have them too.  Gators?  No idea, but if they have a few in Dallas, why not?

There are gators not too far from Houston, not sure abotu snakes.

Offline PANatsFan

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #73: September 11, 2008, 09:17:30 PM »
That was a big problem up around Vero Beach after getting 22" from Fay.  There were snakes and gators everywhere.

Houston-Nat has a bayou right in back of his apartment that probably has some critters in it.

Bayous are too filthy to sustain life

Offline houston-nat

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Re: NOTLD - hunker down or get out!
« Reply #74: September 11, 2008, 09:58:29 PM »
K, guys, prepping the apartment right now and putting the computer away. I'm about to pack my valuables and take shelter in a cafeteria on the Rice campus (they sent an email at 5PM saying they will have room for us; I'm a commuting student). Will likely be gone 'til Sunday or Monday. I'll try to get in touch after the storm passes, so y'all will know that Texas still has its token Nats fan alive and cheering.

The storm should not be that bad. I do not expect a direct hit on downtown Houston, and thus don't expect there to be much significant badness.