Author Topic: Sickels's Nats Top 20 Prospects in Review (Read 5335 times)

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #25:** August 22, 2008, 12:19:29 PM »

Here's where Lannan's ERA+ (park/peripheral-adjusted figure) would rank him in the rotations of contenders in the NL:

Arizona: 3rd
LA: 5th (FWIW, he's nearly tied with Lowe, and Eric Stults has only had 6 starts, but damn, that is one loaded rotation)
Stl: t-2nd
Mil: 3rd
Chi: 4th
Phi: 3rd
NY: 2nd

Looking at this, to say he's "at best" a third on a playoff team when he's only 23 is laughable and ill-informed. Differentiating a second from a third or even a fourth is a fairly pointless exercise, anyway. The aim of a team with championship aspirations should be to have one outstanding starter, three above average ones, and one who can merely give you a chance to win on a fifth day. It does help to have a lights-out top 2, but that's asking for a lot.

blue911 · « **Reply #26:** August 22, 2008, 12:24:08 PM »

Scouts,generally,are rating purely on "stuff" and not on make up. Bergmann has better "stuff" than Lannan but he isn't the pitcher Lannan is.

cletusvandamme · « **Reply #27:** August 22, 2008, 12:57:17 PM »

I don't know why it's an insult to be "only" a 3. Dude has been a find for us and it's a major upset that he's anything above a fringe starter or long guy out of the pen. On a bad team, he's somewhat of a savior. On a good team, he still has a meaningful place in the rotation. I'm happy with that.

spidernat · « **Reply #28:** August 22, 2008, 01:35:45 PM »

Quote from: cletusvandamme on August 22, 2008, 12:57:17 PM

I don't know why it's an insult to be "only" a 3. Dude has been a find for us and it's a major upset that he's anything above a fringe starter or long guy out of the pen. On a bad team, he's somewhat of a savior. On a good team, he still has a meaningful place in the rotation. I'm happy with that.

Absolutely.

I also don't get why calling him a decent 3 is interpreted as a slight. I'd like to have at least 2 pitchers better than Lannan in the rotation.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #29:** August 22, 2008, 01:37:23 PM »

Quote from: blue911 on August 22, 2008, 12:08:09 PM

A 3

Well, he's been the White Sox Ace for years.

sportsfan882 · « **Reply #30:** August 22, 2008, 01:38:13 PM »

Quote from: spidernat on August 22, 2008, 01:35:45 PM

Absolutely. I also don't get why calling him a decent 3 is interpreted as a slight. I'd like to have at least 2 pitchers better than Lannan in the rotation.

If we ever have 2 starters better than Lannan in the rotation we'll know that we are on the right track. Just don't see it happening any time soon.

d_mc_nabb · « **Reply #31:** August 22, 2008, 01:55:11 PM »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on August 22, 2008, 01:38:13 PM

If we ever have 2 starters better than Lannan in the rotation we'll know that we are on the right track. Just don't see it happening any time soon.

I see it happening soon enough. We're getting Strasburg, so that's one. The other could end up being JZ, or even Detwiler. Any of those could end up here as soon as the the end part of the '09 season, maybe even before that.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #32:** August 22, 2008, 01:56:51 PM »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on August 22, 2008, 01:38:13 PM

If we ever have 2 starters better than Lannan in the rotation we'll know that we are on the right track. Just don't see it happening any time soon.

If we have 2 starters better than Lannan has been this season, we're a playoff team

blue911 · « **Reply #33:** August 22, 2008, 01:58:24 PM »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on August 22, 2008, 01:37:23 PM

Well, he's been the White Sox Ace for years.

You are confusing his team roll with his value. When the White Sox won the World Series,Jose Contreras started every series,so clearly Buehle wasn't the "ace". On the Nationals,Tim Redding is considered the "Ace" but that doesn't mean he's a #1.

spidernat · « **Reply #34:** August 22, 2008, 02:12:24 PM »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on August 22, 2008, 01:38:13 PM

If we ever have 2 starters better than Lannan in the rotation we'll know that we are on the right track. Just don't see it happening any time soon.

Well my determination is based on what I think Lannan is ideally not what he is relative to our team.

ronnynat · « **Reply #35:** August 22, 2008, 02:57:35 PM »

If Lannan is our #3 next year, we made some nice moves in the offseason.

houston-nat · « **Reply #36:** August 22, 2008, 03:59:14 PM »

Quote from: daveb32 on August 22, 2008, 12:56:07 AM

Quality starts don't mean **** to a team that can't score more than three runs per games. The problem with Lannan is among those quality starts most of them are only 6IP with 2ER or 3ER. While for guys like Volquez and Hamels the majority of there starts are going into the 7th, 8th and 9th innings while allowing the same amount of runs. Lannan is our best pitcher, hands down, but he just doesn't have the stuff to throw 6 or 7 CGs a year. In my mind he'll always be an average number 2 or a great number 3.

Dude, Lannan is 23 and it's his first full year. If you get him to take on that many innings now, what will the results be later? I don't want him to turn into Shawn Hill - or Francisco Liriano - just because we wanted to pile on the innings.

houston-nat · « **Reply #37:** August 22, 2008, 04:02:38 PM »

Quote from: ACTAvation Energy on August 22, 2008, 12:19:29 PM

Mil: 3rd
NY: 2nd

If I were a 23-year-old pitcher and was told I was second to Johan Santana in my team's rotation, or third to Sabathia and Sheets, that would be a darn good feeling.

d_mc_nabb · « **Reply #38:** August 22, 2008, 04:32:37 PM »

Quote from: houston-nat on August 22, 2008, 04:02:38 PM

If I were a 23-year-old pitcher and was told I was second to Johan Santana in my team's rotation, or third to Sabathia and Sheets, that would be a darn good feeling.

It is an equally crushing feeling to be behind Perez and Redding.

blue911 · « **Reply #39:** August 22, 2008, 04:36:37 PM »

Quote from: houston-nat on August 22, 2008, 04:02:38 PM

If I were a 23-year-old pitcher and was told I was second to Johan Santana in my team's rotation, or third to Sabathia and Sheets, that would be a darn good feeling.

Quote from: d_mc_nabb on August 22, 2008, 04:32:37 PM

It is an equally crushing feeling to be behind Perez and Redding.

Why? If I was 23 I'd settle for Cy Young winning the Blue911 award.

wpa2629 · « **Reply #40:** August 22, 2008, 10:14:31 PM »

As far as innings pitched -- it's important to remember that Lannan gets the lowest run support in all of baseball -- many times he's only gone 6 innings because he had to be lifted for a pinch hitter .. add to that this being his first full year in the majors and I don't think you can hold it against him that he's consistently a 6/7 inning guy this year ...

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #41:** August 22, 2008, 11:21:17 PM »

Quote from: wpa2629 on August 22, 2008, 10:14:31 PM

As far as innings pitched -- it's important to remember that Lannan gets the lowest run support in all of baseball -- many times he's only gone 6 innings because he had to be lifted for a pinch hitter .. add to that this being his first full year in the majors and I don't think you can hold it against him that he's consistently a 6/7 inning guy this year ...

As a rookie I would rather see him pitch a whole season at 6 innings then get shut down in early September (I'm assuming that he has an innings cap)

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #42:** August 22, 2008, 11:23:26 PM »

Quote from: d_mc_nabb on August 22, 2008, 04:32:37 PM

It is an equally crushing feeling to be behind Perez and Redding.

If you think Lannan is inferior to Perez and Redding...

wpa2629 · « **Reply #43:** August 22, 2008, 11:39:25 PM »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on August 22, 2008, 11:21:17 PM

As a rookie I would rather see him pitch a whole season at 6 innings then get shut down in early September (I'm assuming that he has an innings cap)

Don't know about this year -- but he certainly did last year

BBQ · « **Reply #44:** August 23, 2008, 01:15:47 AM »

The fact that you can't deny on Lannan is. He won't dominate but he will maintain a mid 3 era and keep your club in ball-games. If you want a player who could come close to dominating like Hamels take a look at the luckiest kid in the world: Jack Mcgeary.

daveb32 · « **Reply #45:** August 23, 2008, 02:50:07 PM »

Quote from: BBQ on August 23, 2008, 01:15:47 AM

The fact that you can't deny on Lannan is.

Huh?

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #46:** August 23, 2008, 05:39:50 PM »

The kid is like 8. Don't expect him to be able to construct actual sentences, now.

BBQ · « **Reply #47:** August 23, 2008, 11:22:24 PM »

Quote from: sportsfan882 on August 22, 2008, 01:38:13 PM

If we ever have 2 starters better than Lannan in the rotation we'll know that we are on the right track. Just don't see it happening any time soon.

Smoker, McGeary, Zimmermann and Willems and Detwiler