Author Topic: 2008 Draft signing status  (Read 5237 times)

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Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #50: June 22, 2008, 10:49:42 PM »
This is a bit of an overstatement. yes, it could possibly be very good. even if it does, at the beginning of next year, if we have first pick, i'd take strasburg no question. he has ace potential, and find me one world series winner that didn't have an ace on its staff.
Well yeah, he's an exception, but in general we should be focusing more on acquiring bats.

btw, I think it's pretty set in stone that we'll have the first or second pick.

Offline ronnynat

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #51: June 22, 2008, 10:51:00 PM »
btw, I think it's pretty set in stone that we'll have the first or second pick.

As of right now, that is a HUGE difference w/ next year's draft class.

Offline d_mc_nabb

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #52: June 22, 2008, 10:52:39 PM »
Well yeah, he's an exception, but in general we should be focusing more on acquiring bats.

btw, I think it's pretty set in stone that we'll have the first or second pick.

we wont necessarily. the orioles haven't kicked in with their yearly second half crash. the giants will go to sucking even more. and theres still the mariners.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #53: June 22, 2008, 11:57:10 PM »
QFT. We are so freaking stacked with pitching. I'm not worried about that aspect of our future. We will be FINE. Matter of fact, I think we'll have the best young starting rotation in baseball as early as next season and it's only going to get better in the following years.

WE NEED HITTERS!!

I do not know where this whole myth of us not having any hitters in our minor leagues came from.  We might have guys that are not as well known, Ill agree with that.  We might have put a more of a focus on drafting pitchers in the last couple drafts, Ill agree to a certain extent with that as well.  But its not like the team just decided to select all pitchers and no hitters, I mean for God's sake there is 50 some rounds in the draft and if you look at any team they are not made up of entirely first round picks. 

Just as an example and to prove the point to show this, let us look at the roster last years NL Champs the Colorado Rockies (Looking at their top 12 hitters in at-bats and top 5 pitchers in IP).  Only three of the guys were first round picks (Helton, Tuwlowitski, and Francis-pitcher).  Three of the batters were drafted in round 2-5 [Baker-4, Ianetta-4, Atkins-5].  Spilboroughs and Holliday were both drafted in round 7.  Hawpe was drafted in round 11, Carroll was drafted in round 14.  Three guys were not drafted and came in as amateur free agents (Torrabella, Matsui, Taveras).  Looking at their starting rotation you had [Francis-1, Fogg-3, Cook-2, Hirsh-2, Jimenez-Amateur free agent from Dominican).  As you can notice, the hitters came from mostly the first 10 rounds, but were only 2 came from the first round, the rest round four or after.  A good portion of their hitters were not even drafted.  This is in comparison to their pitching staff where four of the guys were drafted in the first 3 rounds and 3 of them in the first two.  Pitchers are a rarer commodity and the best ones usually come from the top rounds.  Hitters on the other hand can come from almost anywhere (but most of the time the top 10 rounds).  Just so it doesnt seem that I picked a team that fits the case, I looked at the Anaheim Angels (the "moneyball" team).  Out of their starting lineup this year they have three former first rounders (Mathis, Kotchmann, and Hunter).  The rest of the lineup was picked round 4 and below with two guys that were Amateur free agents.  Their starting rotation has three guys picked in the first round (Garland, Saunders, and Weaver) and one guy that was a second rounder (Lackey).  The other, Santana, was also an amateur free agent.  Now, both these teams did not draft ALL these players, but I am using this show WHERE these players were drafted and WHERE they are now on two good teams (one that was good last year-colorado and one this year-Anaheim).

Now if we look at our own drafting patterns for the last three years.  All three of our first picks were pitchers (Willems-2006, Detwiler-2007, Crow-2008), the guys that are supposed to eventually make up our rotation.  But if we want to take a closer look you will see that we have drafted almost the same amount of hitters in this time period.  In 06 we drafted 20 bats and 32 arms (11 bats signed vs. 15 arms).  In 07 we drafted 27 bats (19 signed) vs. 26 arms (20 signed).  In 2008 we drafted 29 bats and only 21 arms.  But then you might argue that we only drafted quality arms, still not true.  Looking at both Baseball America's top 200 and PGCC's top 200 the following of our draft picks were amongst those lists (only the guys we signed for 06 and 07):
2006 [Marrero, Willems, King, Englund, Zinicola, VanAllen, & Gibson]
2007 [Burgess, Smolinski, Detwiler, Smoker, McGeary, Zimmermann, and Meyers]
2008 [Crow, Hood, Nieto, JP Ramierez, Espinosa, & Crow]

So over the three year period that comes to 9 arms and 9 bats that were part of the BA+PGCC top 200 list, an equal number (we ended up trading Gibson).  As far as drafting strategy is concerned, they have done a fair job of filling the system with pitchers and hitters.  This year in fact, they drafted 4 guys from the top 200 that were hitters versus only one pitcher (Crow), but it makes sense.  The fact that you would want them to take more hitters seems a bit ridiculous, would you have them draft all hitters?

The guys we drafted are not going to start showing up in the minor league system for a year or two as producers (GCL and Vermont for now), but even if you look at our lower minor teams, they are producing.  The numbers are not always accurate, but you cant deny that our teams our winning (Harrisburg, Hagerstown, Potomac) and its not just because they have good pitching.  Hagerstown as a team leads the league in RBIs with Rhinehart, Burgess, and Seuss all among the top 10 in the league in that category.  Seuss also has the 12th best avg in the league and 7th most doubles.  Lyons has the 3rd best OBP in the league.  Potomac leads the league in team runs (by more than 40), in RBIs, and team Avg.  Leonard Davis has the 2nd best avg in the league and the 4th OBP.  Edgardo Baez is in the top 15 in both those categories.  Baez, Marrero, Rogelstand and Davis are also amongst the top 20 in the league in RBIs (Davis/Marrero/Baez are also in the top 10 in Home Runs + Baez/Rogelstad in the top 10 for doubles).  These are mostly guys that were drafted while the team was still cooperatively owned, the bats that we drafted after the Lerners took over havent even started to appear yet.  So to say we dont have any bats in the minors, IMO, is crazy and to say that the draft strategy is whack is just as ludicrous.  But then again, this mostly my opinion

Offline sportsfan882

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #54: June 23, 2008, 12:05:06 AM »
I didn't say we have no hitting prospects at all but we don't have nearly as many quality hitting prospects as we do pitching prospects. The hitting prospects we have are also much further from being ML-ready than most of our pitchers.

If we don't sign Guzman, who plays SS next year? We have no one in the system to fill that void.

Same with 2B. If hypothetically we don't sign a 2B, who plays 2B? We have no one in the system ready to fill that void either.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #55: June 23, 2008, 12:11:52 AM »
I didn't say we have no hitting prospects at all but we don't have nearly as many quality hitting prospects as we do pitching prospects. The hitting prospects we have are also much further from being ML-ready than most of our pitchers.

If we don't sign Guzman, who plays SS next year? We have no one in the system to fill that void.

Same with 2B. If hypothetically we don't sign a 2B, who plays 2B? We have no one in the system ready to fill that void either.

I get what you are saying, I just dont understand how drafting one of those guys this year would help fill that void next year.  My argument is more for justifying the selections that we made this year than anything.  I do not object to going out and trading for some minor league hitting prospects or signing some Amateur Free Agents by any means.

I am in total agreement that there is a lack of MLB-ready hitters for the club, but not in the minor league system as a whole.

Offline Obed_Marsh

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #56: June 23, 2008, 12:19:41 AM »
Excellent writeup JMUalumni. Thank you. I had no idea you followed the minors that closely but I am glad you do.

Offline d_mc_nabb

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #57: June 23, 2008, 08:39:30 PM »
Basically, as a conclusion, i wish we drafted smoak, i think he had more potential, but theres nothing we can do about it now but complain.

Offline BBQ

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #58: June 23, 2008, 09:03:27 PM »
QFT. We need more hitting prospects.
We seriously do Marrero at times gives me a feeling of the hitters strike-out king. [And this king is not good]

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #59: June 24, 2008, 09:40:55 AM »
I have updated the original post and draft listing to reflect three additional signing in the last few days.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #60: June 24, 2008, 03:56:25 PM »
I didn't say we have no hitting prospects at all but we don't have nearly as many quality hitting prospects as we do pitching prospects. The hitting prospects we have are also much further from being ML-ready than most of our pitchers.

If we don't sign Guzman, who plays SS next year? We have no one in the system to fill that void.

Same with 2B. If hypothetically we don't sign a 2B, who plays 2B? We have no one in the system ready to fill that void either.
Then if we have a wealth of pitching, we can trade some of our great, young pitching to get some ML-ready position players.

There was a trade rumor of Tim Lincecum for Jay Bruce during this offseason.  Even though it never came to fruition, it gives you an idea of the overall value placed on really good starting pitching.  If this team develops an ace, they could get a legitimate 5-tool player in return.

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #61: June 24, 2008, 05:34:44 PM »
ACTAvation, I agree with you analysis above, great pitching is much harder to come by, as some others have suggested as well.  Therefore, as a result of this, it is also more valuable when trading.  Again as always, this is more of my opinion than anything else, but the numbers and past references seem to back it up.

But, anyway, I wanted to post something from Bowden's chat today.  I pulled this of NOTLD's blog (for reasons stated in the thread devoted to the chat), regarding Aaron Crow:

Quote
the_lucas:
11:16 am: How close are you to signing Aaron Crow?

nats_guest:
11:18 am: Negotiations have been dissapointing to-date. We were hoping that he would sign quickly, as did Ryan Zimmerman, Ross Detwiler and Chris Marrero. In my opinion, Aaron is missing out by not signing because he is one of the rare drafts, like Ryan Zimmerman, that can reach the Major Leagues quickly.

If I had to guess, I would say two things are probably holding up the negotiations.  One, Crow probably thought he was going to drafted higher and also probably feels that he is close to being major league ready.  As a result, I bet he is asking for way more than his #9 slot should get.  The second reason, and I point to the Detwiler fiasco that I have talked about previously, is that Crow is probably looking for a clause in his contract that will guarantee him playing time in the majors during his first season, much like the one Detwiler has allegedly gotten (that allowed him to pitch 1.0 inning last season).  Crow probably wants on the 40-man roster so his option years get eaten up rather quickly (starting this season).  Of course, this is speculation on my part.  It is interesting that Bowden sees Crow as similar to Ryan Zimmerman, who in my opinion was a rare occurrence, but I suppose we will see in the coming days/weeks/months how true his belief is.

Offline ronnynat

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #62: June 29, 2008, 06:05:25 PM »
We signed two more.

Quote
The Washington Nationals today announced they have agreed to terms with two players selected in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, right fielder J.R. Higley (ninth round) and right-handed pitcher Christopher Kelley (24th round). To date, they have now agreed to terms with 23 players from this year’s Draft. Nationals Senior Vice President and General Manager Jim Bowden, Vice President of Baseball Operations and Assistant General Manager Mike Rizzo, and Director of Scouting Dana Brown made this joint announcement.

http://farmauthority.dcsportsnet.com/2008/06/29/nationals-agree-to-terms-with-two-more-2/

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #63: June 29, 2008, 10:28:52 PM »
If this team develops an ace, they could get a legitimate 5-tool player in return.
Or keep him.

If this team develops two aces, then we're talking. :)

Offline JMUalumni

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #64: June 29, 2008, 10:31:09 PM »
Or keep him.

If this team develops two aces, then we're talking. :)

Amen to keeping him.  Id keep two if we could develop that many (Glavine/Maddux?), but I suppose we should keep our goal at one for now.

Offline d_mc_nabb

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #65: June 30, 2008, 02:21:29 PM »
Amen to keeping him.  Id keep two if we could develop that many (Glavine/Maddux?), but I suppose we should keep our goal at one for now.

if we get 3 aces or below, i'd keep them, but that in itself is a huge stretch.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2008 Draft signing status
« Reply #66: June 30, 2008, 02:34:36 PM »
No team has 3 aces right now and that Glavine, Smoltz and Maddux rotation was the only one we've seen in decades.  EVERY team thinks there's three or four aces in their farm system, that's the only reason they can have any hope.  If you don't have any aces and a boat load of offense you'll be the Texas Rangers.  If they get any sort of quality pitching they'll be the scariest team in baseball.