June 14-23 homestand .... is this the season?

[bluestreak]

I'm still absolutely terrified about being 8-9 games out on July 31st and Mark Lerner telling Rizzo not to sell because he'll lose ticket sales in August and September.

After last year, he proved he didn't have a good grasp on the team's actual chances to contend and was too concerned with ticket sales compared to helping the organization long-term. To think he blocked a Harper trade because he wanted to re-sign him and then didn't really try to actually re-sign him is amazing to me.

When David Bote hit that Grand Slam on August 12, the Nats were 4 games (and about to be 3 games) back in the standings. That killed the season and until then I still thought they had a reasonable chance. And I’m not the only one.

[UMDNats]

When David Bote hit that Grand Slam on August 12, the Nats were 4 games (and about to be 3 games) back in the standings. That killed the season and until then I still thought they had a reasonable chance. And I’m not the only one.

we were 5.5 GB on august 12, but yeah. it was a debate but we were 5.5 GB at the break, and 5.5 was the closest we got after 7/31

8/12 to 8/15 (four straight losses, 2 walk-offs) was the dagger. 5.5 to 9. Mark didn't sell and we were done 2 weeks later.

[HalfSmokes]

we were 5.5 GB on august 12, but yeah. it was a debate but we were 5.5 GB at the break, and 5.5 was the closest we got after 7/31

8/12 to 8/15 (four straight losses, 2 walk-offs) was the dagger. 5.5 to 9. Mark didn't sell and we were done 2 weeks later.

Just as many people would be calling him cheap and hammering him for selling at 5.5 back as are killing him for not selling- probably the same people

[UMDNats]

Just as many people would be calling him cheap and hammering him for selling at 5.5 back as are killing him for not selling- probably the same people

In 2016 the Yankees were 7 GB on 7/31 (not substantially different than 5.5 GB) and dealt away Miller, Chapman, etc. Sometimes the hard decision is the right one.

But yeah, people would have blasted him for trading Harper. I can already see the Boswell column in my head.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

They have four games at home against the Diamondbacks,  4 against the Phillies, and 3 against the Braves.

Is this the season right here? D-backs are a good team, and the Phillies and Braves are at the top of your division.

You have a bad couple weeks and the Nats will be right back at 10 games back. On the other hand, do well, and you could gain significant ground on both your division leaders and the wild card, leading right into a favorable schedule where you play some bad teams (Miami twice, Detroit, and KC)

That's how I see it.  5-6 or 6-5 and it probably extends the "wait and see" period longer before becoming buyers or sellers.  7-4 or better and then as long as you keep winning in the favorable schedule leading into the break, you go acquire bullpen help.  4-7 or worse and you really start to make calls to sell. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It hurt a lot.  But we recovered fairly well.   12-5 since then.

I don't think 6-5 dooms the year.  It is too early to concern ourselves with the other NL East teams while it looks like no one is going to run away with it.  6-5 gives us a solid shot to get over .500 by the all star break.

.500 at the all star break means we went an impressive 26-14 since hitting rock bottom with the Mets sweep.   Keep that same pace up for the rest of the year and we're at 92 wins and pretty likely win the division.

I'm not buying that going 18-10 (as a result of going 6-5 this home stand) post Mets sweep makes us obvious sellers.  We don't have to worry about who we're beating or losing to until at least July.

Agreed.  Some are way too dramatic in thinking we need to win 8 of 11 minimum.  It would be nice, but 6-5 doesn't totally doom you in the middle of June, because that means you basically are trading punches with the Phils and Braves but you then follow that up with a super easy stretch leading into the break.  You can gain a few games there and get yourself back to .500 or better.  Being within about 4 games of a playoff spot and at .500 or slightly better by the break isn't a bad spot.  It does leave you, similar to last year, in sort of no-man's land for a while without being clear-cut sellers or buyers. 

However, what assets do we really need to sell?  We're not trading Rendon, the goal is to sign him and I think we will.  This team isn't going to be "blown up" whether some of you want that or not.  The core is going to be brought back and re-tooled.  Max, Stras, and Corbin are going to achor the rotation.  Doo will close and the rest of the bullpen will need to be rebuilt.  Rendon (Hopefully), Turner, Soto, Robles, Eaton...that core of the lineup returns.  I think what you'll see is not anybody major "sold" off, and if we're not making a big run, not any real "buying" happening either.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

In 2016 the Yankees were 7 GB on 7/31 (not substantially different than 5.5 GB) and dealt away Miller, Chapman, etc. Sometimes the hard decision is the right one.

But yeah, people would have blasted him for trading Harper. I can already see the Boswell column in my head.

Who do we need to sell?  The Yankees knew they would turn around and sign Chapman again, and found a desparate Cubs team wanting to end 100 years of heartache to send them Gleyber Torres for a rental.  We're wanting to bring back Rendon, but I don't see that happening if we trade him. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

When David Bote hit that Grand Slam on August 12, the Nats were 4 games (and about to be 3 games) back in the standings. That killed the season and until then I still thought they had a reasonable chance. And I’m not the only one.

Yea, that felt like the dagger.  We had just gotten healthy and seemed to be putting it together.   

[UMDNats]

We are as close to last place in the NL as we are to 1st place in the division or a spot in the Wild Card. A crappy 6-5 homestand maintains that status quo, which is that we are bad.

[UMDNats]

Who do we need to sell?  The Yankees knew they would turn around and sign Chapman again, and found a desparate Cubs team wanting to end 100 years of heartache to send them Gleyber Torres for a rental.  We're wanting to bring back Rendon, but I don't see that happening if we trade him. 

We're not going to get any Grade A prospects for anyone (maybe Rendon, but he won't be dealt), but our farm system is so absolutely terrible that getting a handful of C-level prospects for guys like Doolittle & Kendrick would be good, not to mention the possibility of dealing guys like Dozier, Adams, Gomes, Barraclough, Sipp, Taylor, etc. would get us a couple lottery tickets, and we need as many as we can get right now. Our current system has maybe two position players that project as average major leaguers and 0 pitchers that project above a #4 or #5 starter (besides Denaburg, who has never thrown a pro pitch and Rutledge, who was just drafted).

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We're not going to get any Grade A prospects for anyone (maybe Rendon, but he won't be dealt), but our farm system is so absolutely terrible that getting a handful of C-level prospects for guys like Doolittle & Kendrick would be good, not to mention the possibility of dealing guys like Dozier, Adams, Gomes, Barraclough, Sipp, Taylor, etc. would get us a couple lottery tickets, and we need as many as we can get right now. Our current system has maybe two position players that project as average major leaguers and 0 pitchers that project above a #4 or #5 starter (besides Denaburg, who has never thrown a pro pitch and Rutledge, who was just drafted).

Our bullpen has 1 reliable option...why would we trade away Doo versus keeping him for his 6.5 million option in 2020?  That makes no sense.  You aren't finding someone better for anywhere near 6.5 mill. 

We have Howie signed for 2020 at 4 mill.  Why would you not want someone this good and that cheap on your roster?  This team is going to be striving to contend in 2020, especially if you sign Rendon.  You don't deal Doo and Howie to accomplish that.

I don't know what you expect to get for the other guys you mentioned.  They are as much use to us finishing this season as whatever C or even D level prospect you'd get back.  They would be nothing more than salary dumps.  Your chances of getting a future impact big leaguer back is slim to none. 

[Slateman]

Who do we need to sell?  The Yankees knew they would turn around and sign Chapman again, and found a desparate Cubs team wanting to end 100 years of heartache to send them Gleyber Torres for a rental.  We're wanting to bring back Rendon, but I don't see that happening if we trade him. 

Need to sell? We could do a whole other thread on this, but, honestly, anyone who isn't going to be here in the 2021 season.

Rendon - His agent is Boras. Money freaking talks. And honestly, you just offered 300 million to a dude who hit .249.  If you want him back, you can get him.

Doolittle - At the deadline, closers are a premium. Doolittle is the best closer on the market at the deadline. And he has an extremely reasonable team option next season. On top of that, he's not so ego-driven that he HAS to close. Let's move him before he gets hurt and turns into a pumpkin.

Max/Strasburg - Max will be a free agent by the time this team is ready to compete. He also gets 10/5 rights at the end of this season. If you're going to move him, now is the time. Strasburg has a player option if he truly doesn't like where he's traded.

Eaton - His team option is 10 million. Hard pass next season. Someone may bite at the deadline.

Dozier - He seems to have turned it around. Last time he got traded, the Dodgers gave up  Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley. This is the kind of trade you make to get yourself some B-/C+ prospects that you can later flip for middle relief, or use to add on and make bigger deals (i.e., the Tommy Milone or Travis Ott).

Kurt Suzuki - Having a good year, has a great deal of experience. Also is under contract through next season.


To me, those are the must sells. You gotta get something out of them, even if it's lower rated prospects.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Need to sell? We could do a whole other thread on this, but, honestly, anyone who isn't going to be here in the 2021 season.

Rendon - His agent is Boras. Money freaking talks. And honestly, you just offered 300 million to a dude who hit .249.  If you want him back, you can get him.

Doolittle - At the deadline, closers are a premium. Doolittle is the best closer on the market at the deadline. And he has an extremely reasonable team option next season. On top of that, he's not so ego-driven that he HAS to close. Let's move him before he gets hurt and turns into a pumpkin.

Max/Strasburg - Max will be a free agent by the time this team is ready to compete. He also gets 10/5 rights at the end of this season. If you're going to move him, now is the time. Strasburg has a player option if he truly doesn't like where he's traded.

Eaton - His team option is 10 million. Hard pass next season. Someone may bite at the deadline.

Dozier - He seems to have turned it around. Last time he got traded, the Dodgers gave up  Devin Smeltzer and Luke Raley. This is the kind of trade you make to get yourself some B-/C+ prospects that you can later flip for middle relief, or use to add on and make bigger deals (i.e., the Tommy Milone or Travis Ott).

Kurt Suzuki - Having a good year, has a great deal of experience. Also is under contract through next season.


To me, those are the must sells. You gotta get something out of them, even if it's lower rated prospects.

We're going to be looking to re-tool and contend next year regardless.  There isn't going to be a punting of 2020.

[Slateman]

We're going to be looking to re-tool and contend next year regardless.  There isn't going to be a punting of 2020.

Bullcrap. Ownership may say that, but there is no freaking way you're contending in 2020.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Bullcrap. Ownership may say that, but there is no freaking way you're contending in 2020.

Yea, there is.  You want to be the freakin' Marlins?  You have Max, Stras, and Corbin in the rotation.  You have Doo to close.  You have (hopefully) Rendon, Soto, Turner, Howie (can play 1B exclusively), Eaton, and Robles.  The bullpen needs to be addressed in a big way, then you have essentially the same team we expected to contend this year.  What do you think is magically going to be different to have a contending club again in 2021 that is more advanced then that core I just gave? 

[UMDNats]

We're going to be looking to re-tool and contend next year regardless.  There isn't going to be a punting of 2020.

I agree, but I think you have to listen on Doolittle and I also don't know if you can bet on Howie being a stud in 2020, even at $4 million, especially if someone offers a decent prospect for him. We're re-building the bullpen in 2020 anyways, and banking on a bullpen arm with a lot of innings already to be elite next year is a dangerous game IMO.

Eaton, Howie, Doolittle, Gomes, Adams, Dozier would get us 2-3 #20-#30 prospects and some lottery tickets. I mean, sure, if no one offers anyone of any value, then keep the guys for 2020, but I think we could work it out to get some guys who can help in 2020 who are still prospects.

[imref]

Yea, there is.  You want to be the freakin' Marlins?  You have Max, Stras, and Corbin in the rotation.  You have Doo to close.  You have (hopefully) Rendon, Soto, Turner, Howie (can play 1B exclusively), Eaton, and Robles.  The bullpen needs to be addressed in a big way, then you have essentially the same team we expected to contend this year.  What do you think is magically going to be different to have a contending club again in 2021 that is more advanced then that core I just gave? 

Scherzer, Stras, kendrick, doolittle, and even rendon are on the wrong side of 30.  It's arguably fair to say they decline next year. 

[Slateman]

Yea, there is.  You want to be the freakin' Marlins?  You have Max, Stras, and Corbin in the rotation.  You have Doo to close.  You have (hopefully) Rendon, Soto, Turner, Howie (can play 1B exclusively), Eaton, and Robles.  The bullpen needs to be addressed in a big way, then you have essentially the same team we expected to contend this year.  What do you think is magically going to be different to have a contending club again in 2021 that is more advanced then that core I just gave? 

Selling doesnt make us the Marlins. The Braves and Yankees both sold during down years and have rebuilt afterwards.

[UMDNats]

If we trade Eaton, Gomes, Howie, Doolittle, Adams, Dozier, Taylor & Anibal, here is where we are at for 2020:

Max
Stras
Corbin
???
???

LF Soto
CF Robles
RF ???

1B ??? (Zimm)
2B Kieboom (cheapest option)
SS Turner
3B ??? (Rendon, if we don't trade him - we then have to sign him)
C Suzuki

Bullpen would be totally re-worked regardless IMO.

There's still pieces there and Rizzo could (hopefully) get creative this winter. It would require a lot of work and scouting and analytics to find guys to fill these spots, but I don't see why it couldn't get done. We'd also have a decent number of prospects knocking on the door (Crowe, Sharp, for example, plus anyone we acquire) who could fill in on the back end of the roster. I don't know. I think there's a way. Look at how many teams just find guys to fill in roles and it works (see the 2019 Yankees, basically - hell, Luke Voit was acquired for a mediocre bullpen arm and a mediocre bullpen prospect and now he's a stud 1B).

[flyingdonut]

Not saying it would happen, but Gerrit Cole will be 29 and a free agent next winter. Given the sort of history on starting pitching signs, I could see them pulling the trigger on him, assuming Rendon walks.

[Slateman]

If we trade Eaton, Gomes, Howie, Doolittle, Adams, Dozier, Taylor & Anibal, here is where we are at for 2020:

Max
Stras
Corbin
???
???

LF Soto
CF Robles
RF ???

1B ??? (Zimm)
2B Kieboom (cheapest option)
SS Turner
3B ??? (Rendon, if we don't trade him - we then have to sign him)
C Suzuki

Bullpen would be totally re-worked regardless IMO.

There's still pieces there and Rizzo could (hopefully) get creative this winter. It would require a lot of work and scouting and analytics to find guys to fill these spots, but I don't see why it couldn't get done. We'd also have a decent number of prospects knocking on the door (Crowe, Sharp, for example, plus anyone we acquire) who could fill in on the back end of the roster. I don't know. I think there's a way. Look at how many teams just find guys to fill in roles and it works (see the 2019 Yankees, basically - hell, Luke Voit was acquired for a mediocre bullpen arm and a mediocre bullpen prospect and now he's a stud 1B).

I'm totally okay with that, especially if we're getting prospects back for those guys. Again, 2020 is not my concern. Yes, you could revamp the bullpen, but do you really think that Rendon re-signs, and Turner, Zimmerman, Doolittle, and Strasburg are all going to stay healthy for a full season? And even if they did, that's not enough to compete against what the Braves are building towards.

Not saying it would happen, but Gerrit Cole will be 29 and a free agent next winter. Given the sort of history on starting pitching signs, I could see them pulling the trigger on him, assuming Rendon walks.

Another 20+ million dollar starter? Doubt it. Before his more recent comments, I was intereted in Nick Castellanos at first, but now, I think the Nats need to concentrate on trading for someone who can give you production at first base.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I agree, but I think you have to listen on Doolittle and I also don't know if you can bet on Howie being a stud in 2020, even at $4 million, especially if someone offers a decent prospect for him. We're re-building the bullpen in 2020 anyways, and banking on a bullpen arm with a lot of innings already to be elite next year is a dangerous game IMO.

Eaton, Howie, Doolittle, Gomes, Adams, Dozier would get us 2-3 #20-#30 prospects and some lottery tickets. I mean, sure, if no one offers anyone of any value, then keep the guys for 2020, but I think we could work it out to get some guys who can help in 2020 who are still prospects.

You aren't going to get much return for Howie.  And trading away your one good reliever when you have him at a good price next year would have to bring back something huge.  He isn't looked at like a Aroldis Chaman.  We aren't getting a Gleyber Torres type. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Selling doesnt make us the Marlins. The Braves and Yankees both sold during down years and have rebuilt afterwards.

You said you want to trade Max and Stras as well.  Who exactly are you looking to keep?  We'll be far, far away from contending.  You are talking about a rotation of Corbin and who?  Doo gone from the bullpen.  That isn't happening.  This core of the 3 rotation guys, Doo, Rendon, Soto, Turner, Robles...they're going to be kept together and re-tooled to contend in 2020 regardless of how this year plays out.  If we're "sellers" at the deadline then guys like Dozier and Adams are irrelevant what we do with either way.  You aren't getting anything of note for them, but sure, trade them away.  But if we're still in striking distance, it's not a "must" to get C or D prospects for them if they give you a chance to win games. 

[Slateman]

You said you want to trade Max and Stras as well.  Who exactly are you looking to keep?  We'll be far, far away from contending.  You are talking about a rotation of Corbin and who?  Doo gone from the bullpen.  That isn't happening.  This core of the 3 rotation guys, Doo, Rendon, Soto, Turner, Robles...they're going to be kept together and re-tooled to contend in 2020 regardless of how this year plays out.  If we're "sellers" at the deadline then guys like Dozier and Adams are irrelevant what we do with either way.  You aren't getting anything of note for them, but sure, trade them away.  But if we're still in striking distance, it's not a "must" to get C or D prospects for them if they give you a chance to win games. 

By the time we're competitive, Max  and Stras will likely be on the downside of their careers. Doolittle is 34. His career is on the way out.  They are not your future and you shouldn't plan around them. If someone is offering you something for them (and those contracts) you have to do it to help your team next season and beyond.

Rendon is a free agent and, honestly, the Nats are going to pay him what Boras wants.

So the core of this team is Turner, Soto, and Robles. We have all of them under team control through 2022. The franchise needs trade chips and players developing in the minors. Nothing they do is going to get them back to 95+ wins in 2020.

[UMDNats]

You aren't going to get much return for Howie.  And trading away your one good reliever when you have him at a good price next year would have to bring back something huge.  He isn't looked at like a Aroldis Chaman.  We aren't getting a Gleyber Torres type. 

I'd trade Doolittle for a back-end top-100 OF prospect (in AA or higher) and a mid-level, #17-25 prospect from a team, especially if it was a starter. Don't need a Gleyber Torres to make it worth it.