Author Topic: Is Harper on Pace For HOF  (Read 1402 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 322
Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Topic Start: March 02, 2019, 03:27:00 PM »
In Tom Boswells column today he mentions Bryce Harper is one-third through a Hall of Fame Career. Is he?
Through his first 7 seasons he's averaged:

Batting Average - .279
Home Runs - 26
RBI - 74

If he stays healthy for the next 10 years and can average what he has through his first 7, meaning he can average through his mid 30's what he did through his early to mid twenties, he will end up with this:

Batting Average - .279
Home Runs - 442 (42 all-time tied with Dave Kingman and 20 behind Adam Dunn who would have done it in 3 less years)
RBIs - 1,258 (132 all-time 1 ahead of Bernie Williams who would of had 1 less year)

Not HOF material.

Online bluestreak

  • Posts: 8283
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #1: March 02, 2019, 03:44:59 PM »
If you believe that Harper has peaked, then no way he makes the Hall. If you believe he is just entering his prime, then he has a decent chance.

If you look at HOF standards in RF, it’s not too optimistic though.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/jaws_RF.shtml

I think the counting stats won’t matter much. If Bryce plays out that contract he will be on the ballot in 2036 at the earliest. The entire HOF electoral will have turned over and be almost entirely made up of those with a sabermetric bent.

I personally am of the mind that Harper has already peaked. I don’t think the Nats just let him walk if they genuinely thought the next six years would be better than the last six. That combined with effect on clubhouse chemistry and I understand giving him a token offer and letting him walk.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 322
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #2: March 02, 2019, 04:36:33 PM »
With players not being able to use steroids the more they get into their 30's it seems it would be more difficult to keep pace with their production from their early to mid 20's when they started in the teens and have been around for a few years. Harper may do it but I certainly wouldn't say he's on pace for a HOF career at this point.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 14952
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #3: March 02, 2019, 05:05:33 PM »
He’s likely to hit more home runs at CBP than at Nats Park. No one knows what the future will hold regarding injuries and such. The strike looms also to cut him from a prime year.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 322
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #4: March 02, 2019, 06:40:49 PM »
I saw an article that said CBP is the fifth easiest for a left hander to hit home runs. That probably will factor into Harpers future production but I think Boswell is wrong when he says at this point Harper is one-third on the way to a HOF career. The stats don't back that up.

Online varoadking

  • Posts: 26143
  • King of Goodness
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #5: March 02, 2019, 06:48:17 PM »

Barry Bonds isn't in the HoF either...just sayin'...  :whistle:

Offline Baseball is Life

  • Posts: 19354
  • Proud member of the Sunshine Squad.
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #6: March 03, 2019, 12:33:25 PM »
Who gives a crap.

Offline Nick the Pig

  • Posts: 702
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #7: March 03, 2019, 06:18:00 PM »
Nope.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 9236
  • Team America 2018
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #8: March 04, 2019, 10:23:44 AM »
Not sure. He had an insane 2015, but from 2016-2018 he was far behind Anthony Rendon in WAR and then barely beat out Murphy and Turner.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bryce Harper eventually ends up at first base and is slamming homers into the early 2030's which almost guarantees he is in the Hall of Fame, but he is not on pace to be a first ballot player.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 16226
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #9: March 04, 2019, 11:11:24 AM »
I think he'll get there because he will play for about 20 years. By the time his contract is up he'll have a 20-year career and he'll be good enough to get to at least 500 HRs and close to 3000 hits I think. Add in the fact that he's a popular player in a big market (built-in advantage) and he should glide right in barring injury or horrible performance in his 30s. He'll always walk a ton and hit for power so a career OPS of .900 or so with a 20-year-career and 500 HRs would get him in IMO.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20168
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #10: March 04, 2019, 11:16:06 AM »
The baseball reference indicators have him as a little less than halfway there. If he can replicate his first seven years and then play out the rest of his career reasonable productive, he’s in. I think he makes it barring injury, but he also 3 injury shortened seasons already, so him making it is a tossup for me

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3402
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #11: March 04, 2019, 11:46:21 AM »
In Tom Boswells column today he mentions Bryce Harper is one-third through a Hall of Fame Career. Is he?

The above statement is unquestionably true, taken literally as 3 times his career numbers being a HOF career.

He would have 552 HRs, 1,563 RBIs, and 3 MVP awards :)

Of course, if it means will he be a HOFer if he ages normally, I'd say its very unlikely. He's #63 on the list of highest WAR by players from age 22-25, surrounded by mostly non-HOFers. I didn't want to be totally unfair to him so I left in his MVP season to inflate his numbers. Most HOFers have lower peaks but a lot more MVP-level seasons in the 6-8 WAR range.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15778
  • pissy DC sports fan
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #12: March 04, 2019, 02:16:16 PM »
Who gives a crap.

:clap:

He didn't bring a title to DC, so it means screw-all to me, anymore.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 16226
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #13: March 04, 2019, 03:27:08 PM »
The "Thank You, Bryce" guest column in the Post this morning tells you pretty much all you need to know about how soft DC is as a sports town. :lmao:

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 16226
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #14: March 04, 2019, 03:35:27 PM »
Also this was a really interesting graph I saw at River Ave Blues:



Quote
To be fair to Harper, the league average contact rate on pitches in the zone has gone from 87.1% in 2015 to 85.6% in 2018. Like I said, pitching is ridiculously good right now. Harper’s in-zone contact rate sat at 78.0% last year. That ranked 137th among the 140 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Hmmm.

http://riveraveblues.com/2019/03/devils-advocate-yankees-smart-pass-manny-machado-bryce-harper-184809/

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 20292
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #15: March 04, 2019, 03:38:17 PM »
The "Thank You, Bryce" guest column in the Post this morning tells you pretty much all you need to know about how soft DC is as a sports town. :lmao:

Yeah... I don't think that woman working out her emotional issues with baseball player fantasies is reflective of the whole fan base.  At least I hope it doesn't.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 16226
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #16: March 04, 2019, 04:25:59 PM »
Yeah... I don't think that woman working out her emotional issues with baseball player fantasies is reflective of the whole fan base.  At least I hope it doesn't.


of course not but how many cities does that weird column get published in?

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20168
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #17: March 04, 2019, 04:28:43 PM »
of course not but how many cities does that weird column get published in?

If we had won anything, something like that would almost be expected, but since we didn’t, it seems weird. Isn’t it usually the player taking out an add to thank fans?

Online bluestreak

  • Posts: 8283
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #18: March 04, 2019, 04:50:49 PM »
If we had won anything, something like that would almost be expected, but since we didn’t, it seems weird. Isn’t it usually the player taking out an add to thank fans?

I actually was wondering if Bryce would do something like that. He doesn’t strike me as that classy though. I’m not holding my breath.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

  • Posts: 15399
  • babble on
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #19: March 04, 2019, 05:25:56 PM »
I could see him commissioning moving Metro ads featuring a montage of DC sports disasters (Theismann's leg, Tikkanen's open-net whiff, Drewpocalypse) alternating with images of the Phanatic prancing around on the roof of the visitors dugout.

Offline Five Banners

  • Posts: 555
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #20: March 04, 2019, 09:00:34 PM »
The "Thank You, Bryce" guest column in the Post this morning tells you pretty much all you need to know about how soft DC is as a sports town. :lmao:

Interlopers invading a paper who did their best to prop up Angelos' claims and keep baseball from here tells you all you need to know about the paper.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 51089
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #21: March 05, 2019, 08:06:43 AM »
Yes.

500 homers gets you in.

Bryce has 184 so far. 500-184 = 316

Bryce has a 13 year contract. 316/13 = 24.3. So basically, if Bryce Harper averages 24 home runs a season over the course of his career, he will get to 500 home runs, which will get him in the HoF. I don't see this being a problem in that bandbox.

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 20292
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #22: March 05, 2019, 09:06:45 AM »
Good point.

of course not but how many cities does that weird column get published in?

Online bluestreak

  • Posts: 8283
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #23: March 05, 2019, 09:54:14 AM »
Yes.

500 homers gets you in.

Bryce has 184 so far. 500-184 = 316

Bryce has a 13 year contract. 316/13 = 24.3. So basically, if Bryce Harper averages 24 home runs a season over the course of his career, he will get to 500 home runs, which will get him in the HoF. I don't see this being a problem in that bandbox.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think 500 homers is automatic entry anymore. The Home Run environment is changing which devalues them and the electorate will be entire analytics based in 20 years when he’s eligible for election.
I don’t think 24 homers per year will cut it unless he gets on base around the same rate he has over the past couple of years. Especially if he isn’t fielding.

I could be wrong though.

Offline captkirk42

  • Posts: 1341
    • Curly W Cards
Re: Is Harper on Pace For HOF
« Reply #24: March 05, 2019, 09:57:06 AM »
As a fan of the player Harper I sort of do hope he makes the HOF, unfortunately since most of his career will be as a cheese steak that is how he will go into it. I think he is pretty much at his peak and would have to improve quickly in the next few years to make it. WE all know that sometimes after a player changes teams they make a huge improvement. That could turn him from his overrated mediocrity to superstar status.

As someone else said you never know and we don't know the future. He could get a horrible career ending injury like a broken leg that hampers him for the rest of his career or forces him to retire early OR he could go on a super tear and break Philly team records.

I think in a few years most will forget he was ever a Nat. :(

Even though he is often a huge jerk I liked his time with the Nats.