Author Topic: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez  (Read 1253 times)

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Online imref

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #25: December 21, 2018, 09:03:17 AM »
Yeah, he looked great against us. But, our offense had very anemic stretches where any number of rookie or mediocre pitchers looked very good against us. 2018 Nats (and many other teams in MLB) hardly featured scary offenses.

In 25 starts against the Nats, he's 10-1 with a 2.08 ERA.  At Nats park, he's 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA.

That's at least a reason for a glimmer of hope.

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #26: December 21, 2018, 09:08:36 AM »
Why not? Have you seen the numbers he put up last year in AAA? He definaltely had the arm. Just needs to work on his control and walks.
You mean actually find control? Because he's never developed it. At any level.

He's Henry Rodriguez/Enny Romero.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #27: December 21, 2018, 09:46:10 AM »
I'm thinking Rizzo is not done with getting SP. I would like Anibel as a #5 but maybe he's making too much money for that.

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #28: December 21, 2018, 10:02:43 AM »
I'm thinking Rizzo is not done with getting SP. I would like Anibel as a #5 but maybe he's making too much money for that.

I'd guess he's set with one of Fedde / Ross / McGowan in the #5 slot or providing depth at AAA. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #29: December 21, 2018, 10:41:16 AM »
...and choked...

Here are regular season numbers for 3 years for 3 pitchers:
A: 97 games, 93 starts, 571.2 innings, 3.89 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 4.05 FIP. 38-36 W/L.
B: 88 games, 67 starts, 395.1 innings, 4.96 ERA, 1.366 WHIP, 4.64 FIP, 17-26.
C: 96 games, 96 starts, 549.1 innings, 3.87 ERA, 1.314 WHIP, 3.95 FIP, 36-31.

It's fun to get excited about release points and potential improvement, but pitching numbers are almost always unstable in the short run and relatively stable in the long term.  You can always go back and find numbers to "explain" why a guy did well in a past season, but it's simply a truism of statistical analysis that if you run enough regressions with enough variables, you'll find one with some correlation to the data.  That doesn't necessarily mean squat going forward.  Guys have one or two bad years and then occasionally excellent ones.  Late-career evolutions like Morton (who people seem to forget was actually good for a couple years in Pittsburgh) are rare.   

I'd love to be wrong here, but I'd expect a Sanchez next year nowhere near what he was last year, and probably slightly off pitchers A and C above - who are Roark and Gonzalez, by the way.  Sanchez is B.

Offline Expos

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #30: December 21, 2018, 11:24:31 AM »
You mean actually find control? Because he's never developed it. At any level.

He's Henry Rodriguez/Enny Romero.

Weren't people saying the same thing about Blake Treinen who turned into one of the leagues best closers?

Not everything has to be negative man.

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #31: December 21, 2018, 11:59:54 AM »
I'll go on record and say that I don't like this deal. I liked Sanchez when he was with Miami and then became available before the Tigers got him but too much money for a 35 yo.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #32: December 21, 2018, 12:58:00 PM »
I'll go on record and say that I don't like this deal. I liked Sanchez when he was with Miami and then became available before the Tigers got him but too much money for a 35 yo.

19 million over 2 years is not very much money in this era for a vet starting pticher, especially one coming off the season he had.

I'm surprised at all the blowback on this signing.  I don't know what some expect to get as a #4 starter.  If you're paying attention, there are more and more examples of guys like Sanchez changing their pitch mix dramatically and having dramatically different results.  That's not a fluke, and the Nats know that.  Sanchez also will have his same primary catcher from last year in Suzuki catching him here. 

Will he have a sub-3 ERA again?  Probably not, but I bet he's significantly better than Roark was last year.  Will he make 30 starts?  Again, probably not, but I'll take 25 good starts from him over 30 very mediocre to bad starts. 

Any pitcher is a risk, but 19 mill over 2 years isn't going to cripple the franchise if he doesn't work out.

Online imref

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #33: December 21, 2018, 01:04:14 PM »
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15589

Quote
Verdict; I think they did pretty darn good considering what’s out there and what they have to work with.   I’ll take Sanchez and his 2018 performance as my 4th starter any day.  The question is … is it sustainable?  Is it a one-off?  Scouting reports seem to indicate he found a new pitch and worked it heavily, but that his numbers had some luck involved w/r/t BABIP and soft contact.  He’s also 35, so we’re counting on an older guy to continue a sustained late-career surge.  Kinda like what the Dodgers have done with Rich Hill, so it isn’t out of the realm of possible.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #34: December 21, 2018, 01:17:13 PM »
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=15589

Nice breakdown.  I'd like to find our own Anibal Sanchez this year as well...a vet reclamation project.  The smartest teams identify guys like Sanchez that just need a mechanical tweak or a different pitch mix and they become totally different guys. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #35: December 21, 2018, 01:19:28 PM »
Corey, with me I think the skepticism comes from my view of free agency.  I think there usually are vet pitchers available in February for one year deals in the $4-7 MM range or even less with opt outs and a spring invite that are about as good as Cannibal projects. Rizzo has to have a lot of faith in his scouting to lock in the 4th slot this way for 2 years.

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #36: December 21, 2018, 01:26:01 PM »
Don't worry, if Sanchez sucks Rizzo will leak that ownership made him do it.

Offline rileyn

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #37: December 21, 2018, 01:49:13 PM »
19 million over 2 years is not very much money in this era for a vet starting pticher, especially one coming off the season he had.

I'm surprised at all the blowback on this signing.  I don't know what some expect to get as a #4 starter.  If you're paying attention, there are more and more examples of guys like Sanchez changing their pitch mix dramatically and having dramatically different results.  That's not a fluke, and the Nats know that.  Sanchez also will have his same primary catcher from last year in Suzuki catching him here. 

Will he have a sub-3 ERA again?  Probably not, but I bet he's significantly better than Roark was last year.  Will he make 30 starts?  Again, probably not, but I'll take 25 good starts from him over 30 very mediocre to bad starts. 

Any pitcher is a risk, but 19 mill over 2 years isn't going to cripple the franchise if he doesn't work out.

This.

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #38: December 21, 2018, 03:26:31 PM »
Corey, with me I think the skepticism comes from my view of free agency.  I think there usually are vet pitchers available in February for one year deals in the $4-7 MM range or even less with opt outs and a spring invite that are about as good as Cannibal projects. Rizzo has to have a lot of faith in his scouting to lock in the 4th slot this way for 2 years.
This is my belief also. I’d grab another Hellboy in a NY minute

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #39: December 21, 2018, 05:17:13 PM »
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-get-anibal-sanchez-to-replace-tanner-roark/

FG's Craig Edwards weighs in.

Basically, he says there's more upside than Roark.  Goes through the addition of the cutter, decrease in use of the slider and 4 seam, and throwing his best pitch (the change) more, all of which led to less solid contact last year.  When taking into account the deferral of some salary, it looks like 6-7-6 guaranteed from 2019-2021 for 2 years of work, saving some cash flow next year.
Quote
Throwing fewer pitches that hurt you and more pitches that don’t is a fairly simple recipe for success as long as you have the repertoire to do so. It is working for Sanchez.

At 35 years old on Opening Day next year, Sanchez’s fastball from a few years ago is never coming back. There’s some risk of injury given his history, but in paying him just six million dollars this season (not including the deferred money), the Nationals saved about five million dollars and got a pitcher who could be better than the outgoing Roark. If hitters can adjust to Sanchez’s new arsenal and start pounding him again, the total dollars guaranteed to Sanchez isn’t onerous. If he can repeat the success of last season, he’ll be a bargain.
Finally, suggests we will eventually end up with a 2d baseman, but there's plenty and we can hold for a bargain later in the off-season.

Online imref

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Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #40: December 21, 2018, 05:19:29 PM »
The A’s have an extra 2b now.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #41: December 21, 2018, 05:20:54 PM »
The A’s have an extra 2b now.
Lowrie is an FA.  Who do you have in mind?

Offline hotshot

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #42: December 21, 2018, 05:22:47 PM »
We'll have to wait and see with Anibal. Gotta hope he's not a signing like Cobb and Cashner turned out to be for the Os.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #43: December 21, 2018, 06:43:31 PM »
Lowrie is an FA.  Who do you have in mind?

The fact that the they got Prufar, means they are likely out of the running to re-sign Lowrie. You could do worse than a 4-5 win stopgap until Kieboom is ready.

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #44: December 22, 2018, 01:17:08 PM »
For comparison to Sánchez, fiers looks set to get $14-15 from the A’s

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #45: December 22, 2018, 01:28:59 PM »
Lowrie is an FA.  Who do you have in mind?

They won't resign Lowrie, but Profar is a little odd if they believe at all in Barreto.  Chapman just had shoulder surgery, so I'd also worry that he's going to miss a bunch of time, which means Profar is playing 3B for a while.   The A's have a lot of trading pieces, but most of that is extra outfielders and what they most need is SPs, which the Nats don't have to spare.

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #46: December 22, 2018, 01:55:22 PM »
Sanchez is a gamble. In theory,  it makes sense to gamble with the top of the rotation being what it us now.

In practice,  it doesnt. Because we all know that Strasburg will miss 10+ starts, and Corbin will probably struggle with a big contract.

Re: Anibel - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #47: December 24, 2018, 02:03:11 PM »
19 million over 2 years is not very much money in this era for a vet starting pticher, especially one coming off the season he had.

I'm surprised at all the blowback on this signing.  I don't know what some expect to get as a #4 starter.  If you're paying attention, there are more and more examples of guys like Sanchez changing their pitch mix dramatically and having dramatically different results.  That's not a fluke, and the Nats know that.  Sanchez also will have his same primary catcher from last year in Suzuki catching him here. 

Will he have a sub-3 ERA again?  Probably not, but I bet he's significantly better than Roark was last year.  Will he make 30 starts?  Again, probably not, but I'll take 25 good starts from him over 30 very mediocre to bad starts. 

Any pitcher is a risk, but 19 mill over 2 years isn't going to cripple the franchise if he doesn't work out.

I agree with Cory here, I don't understand the negativity. Most of us on here have spent the last 2 years wanting Gio and Tanner shipped out of here and now we're complaining about signing a guy who's metrics were excellent in Atlanta last year, who's stuff has always played in the NL and who had great days in Detroit as a teammate of Max's. One can also pontificate that Max gave Rizzo his blessing with this signing.

Here's a newsflash: there are very few good SP available on the market so you can't exactly be picky. As I said in a previous post I might have opted for Fiers but sounds like he was probably going back to the A's all along anyway, which he's about to. Aside from guys like him and Sanchez it's been slim pickings on the FA market for even so much as a solid #4 starter let alone the top of the rotation ones. Nats paid the going rate and Sanchez is most likely better than whoever else would have filled that role. As for his lack of durability, yes it's a concern but I'll take 25-26 starts from him and find a fill in for the other 6 or 7. Most teams in baseball deal with that same type of thing given how often many pitchers get hurt. Let's face it, even with a DL trip or 2 you're probably still talking about Sanchez having a higher number of solid starts in 2019 than Gio or Tanner had last year with great health.

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Anibal - Rhymes with Cannibal - Sanchez
« Reply #49: December 27, 2018, 03:59:31 PM »
Sanchez is a gamble. In theory,  it makes sense to gamble with the top of the rotation being what it us now.

In practice,  it doesnt. Because we all know that Strasburg will miss 10+ starts, and Corbin will probably struggle with a big contract.

How is it anything other than an overly negative guess to say Corbin "probably" struggles with a big contract?  What is there to back that up?