Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin

[UMDNats]

yes.  he's not being paid ace money.  this is what you pay for a FA #2 / #3 starter.

6 years is risky for 2x tommy john guy, but maybe there were some successes this past year among multi-TJS arms. Corbin, Eovaldi, Venters come to mind pretty quickly.  I hope the Nats know what they are looking at in terms of elbows.  They seemed to have guessed right on JZ, and seem to have been willing to pay for Stras near the end of the projected span for his elbow, too.

i think the nats also betting on medical advacements continuing over the next 5 years to a point where TJ surgery and recovery can be more predictable/quicker/safer.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

i think the nats also betting on medical advacements continuing over the next 5 years to a point where TJ surgery and recovery can be more predictable/quicker/safer.

Mitlen made the same argument about leaching when he tried to sign George Washington to the Fort Duquense Pirates sometime after Washington blew out his arm throwing silver dollars across the Rappahanock.

[mitlen]

Mitlen made the same argument about leaching when he tried to sign George Washington to the Fort Duquense Pirates sometime after Washington blew out his arm throwing silver dollars across the Rappahanock.

That boy had a hell of a curve ball.    He fell back on his surveying skills to provide for his family.

[Elvir Ovcina]

yes.  he's not being paid ace money.  this is what you pay for a FA #2 / #3 starter.

6 years is risky for 2x tommy john guy, but maybe there were some successes this past year among multi-TJS arms. Corbin, Eovaldi, Venters come to mind pretty quickly.  I hope the Nats know what they are looking at in terms of elbows.  They seemed to have guessed right on JZ, and seem to have been willing to pay for Stras near the end of the projected span for his elbow, too.

As far as I know, Corbin's only had TJ once.  As I've said before, the second TJ is really bad news on a long-term basis, especially for starters.  Maybe the surgeons are getting better, maybe the rehab's getting better.  Maybe not.

[UMDNats]

Mitlen made the same argument about leaching when he tried to sign George Washington to the Fort Duquense Pirates sometime after Washington blew out his arm throwing silver dollars across the Rappahanock.

[Optics]

6 years...whatever. I want to win now. If we win a World Series I don't care who we're paying 5 years from now.

Scherz/Corbin/Stras gives us the best 123 in the NL. Throughout our short history we've been built around one thing: dominant starting pitching. Its time to get back to that.

[bluestreak]

https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-sports-corbin-yankees-no-deal-20181204-story.html

I bet those grapes tasted bad anyway...

[Baseball is Life]

That boy had a hell of a curve ball.    He fell back on his surveying skills to provide for his family.

He gave up surveying and joined the army.

[aspenbubba]

Mitlen made the same argument about leaching when he tried to sign George Washington to the Fort Duquense Pirates sometime after Washington blew out his arm throwing silver dollars across the Rappahanock.

I thought it was the Potomac on a rehab start?

[imref]

I thought it was the Potomac on a rehab start?

Was this before or after he choked Burr?

[mitlen]

Was this before or after he choked Burr?

Lucky Burr didn't shoot him.

[Expos]

4 years, 68 million for Eovaldi.
6 years, 140 million for Corbin.

Call me crazy but I take Corbin at 23.3 mil a year (salary deferrals?) over Eovaldi at 17 mil a year all day long.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As far as I know, Corbin's only had TJ once.  As I've said before, the second TJ is really bad news on a long-term basis, especially for starters.  Maybe the surgeons are getting better, maybe the rehab's getting better.  Maybe not.

One TJ makes the signing maybe better because it fits with their understanding of the recovery process.  If they trust the surgeon, saw the x-rays/ MRIs, whatever, they are probably going back to their belief that, on average, TJ lasts about 7 years or so, or at least they used. They probably are figuring that he's got a decent shot at avoiding further surgery.  The loss of velo should be concerning, as well as his slider-heavy approach in terms of arm-stress, but they seem relatively smart about TJ.

[Elvir Ovcina]

One TJ makes the signing maybe better because it fits with their understanding of the recovery process.  If they trust the surgeon, saw the x-rays/ MRIs, whatever, they are probably going back to their belief that, on average, TJ lasts about 7 years or so, or at least they used. They probably are figuring that he's got a decent shot at avoiding further surgery.  The loss of velo should be concerning, as well as his slider-heavy approach in terms of arm-stress, but they seem relatively smart about TJ.

He's got a decent shot solely because the variability is so high.   Even so, if you want some depressing reading, look at a list of guys who got big contracts after having TJ, and see how happy the teams giving those contracts were:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/tommy-john-surgery-largest-contracts.html.   

[Slateman]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/patrick-corbins-game-changing-tweak/

I wanna believe

[Squab]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/patrick-corbins-game-changing-tweak/

I wanna believe

Yeah this is a cool read. In those GIFs his movement looked to happen really late too.

[imref]

And it’s official: https://curlyw.mlblogs.com/nationals-agree-to-terms-with-patrick-corbin-619d03c6fa8d

[HalfSmokes]

You can’t just rely on buying depth with free agents- at some point the farm has to produce decent pitchers

[Optics]

Why are we talking about Harper in the Corbin thread? Aren't there enough Harper threads?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Why are we talking about Harper in the Corbin thread? Aren't there enough Harper threads?

cleaned up.  The harper discussion moved the to poll on where he will end up.  The more general portion on roster depth and budget moved to the 2019 line up thread.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1072616185454305280?s=21

Patrick Corbin: 2.5M signing bonus, 12.5m in 2019, 19M in 2020, 24M in 2021, 23M in 2022, 24m in 2023, 35M in 2024 (10M deferred w/o interest). 140m total. #nats

[bluestreak]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-patrick-corbin-were-a-trendsetter/

[tomterp]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-patrick-corbin-were-a-trendsetter/

Nice piece!

[nats2playoffs]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-patrick-corbin-were-a-trendsetter/

One of the Comments to that article:

pilldom
"You mentioning Tyson Ross has me thinking of Joe Ross now. Will be interesting to see if Corbin can give him a hand in developing a second slider. Much like his brother he is limited right now by the fact he only has two pitches. One of those pitches just so happens to be a wipe out slider though."
 

[Slateman]

When it mattered the absolute most, Corbin made good