Author Topic: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin  (Read 3032 times)

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #25: December 04, 2018, 04:27:34 PM »
I doubt Bryce returns, but I think whatever offer is currently on the table/being discussed from the Nats is still there.  If he takes it, then I think it just sets off other moves made to shed some salary elsewhere. 

Online imref

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #26: December 04, 2018, 04:31:01 PM »
Am I reading this right?  We lose our 2nd round, and our Harper compensation pick (assuming he leaves) by signing Corbin?

Heyman says the yankees offered 5 years, $100 million.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #27: December 04, 2018, 04:43:32 PM »
I wonder if they have some sort of in-house indication of which TJs to bet on?  Maybe the same thing that pushed them away from JZ pushed them towards Corbin and ok'd the Stras extension.

Offline nats4ever

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #28: December 04, 2018, 04:51:37 PM »
I'm sorry which one of you guys said the Lerners were cheap?? Now eat humble pie.

Online varoadking

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #29: December 04, 2018, 04:53:08 PM »

Who is Corbin's agent?

Offline USF_Football

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #30: December 04, 2018, 04:56:52 PM »
If the Lerners really want to spend their own money and piss off the world, sign Machado and keep him at 3B, moving Rendon to second. Problem solved... OR sign Machado AND Harper, put Machado at 3B, Rendon at 2B, Harper at 1B and place old man Zim on the bench. Rotate the OF mixing Harper in every third game to give Eaton/Soto/Robles a blow. Yes, there will be some serious cap implications, but it's not my money so I'm not losing sleep over it. You can always dream...

On the Corbin deal... not overly excited. He had a great contract year and got paid. Let's see if he can do it again similar to Max. Is Corbin better than what we have presently following Max and Stras... yes. Will the world proclaim we have three aces? Yes. Do I personally feel like we have three aces? Not so much. We have Max, then an often injured Stras (ace for most teams - but he's proven he's just not that reliable) and then a very high two in Corbin (not an ace in my opinion). If we faced the Dodgers tomorrow in a five game series, I'm not sure we would out-duel them on the Hill.


Offline USF_Football

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #31: December 04, 2018, 04:58:22 PM »
I'm sorry which one of you guys said the Lerners were cheap?? Now eat humble pie.

Exactly... the Lerners have always shelled out the money. Happy to have them in ownership spending THEIR money on players that could have a positive impact on our team. No complaints here...

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #32: December 04, 2018, 05:00:38 PM »
Wonder what they could get for Strasburg?

Offline USF_Football

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #33: December 04, 2018, 05:03:30 PM »
From MLBTradeRumors:

The Nationals have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Patrick Corbin, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Corbin, a client of ISE Baseball, has landed a $140MM guarantee over a six-year term, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

Patrick Corbin | Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Deferrals will reduce the true, present-day value of the deal, but it’s still a huge sum. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the deferrals will be relatively minor, though details aren’t yet known. There will not be an opt-out opportunity in the deal, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets. That’s one area in which the Nats will avoid giving further value. (As MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has explained, those increasingly common clauses convey sometimes-significant value to players.) There’s no word yet as to whether Corbin will obtain any no-trade protection.

It turns out that Corbin will not only top the $126MM guarantee achieved last winter by Yu Darvish,but will do so handily. Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Corbin would beat Darvish slightly, grading him as the top arm on the market. That seemed an aggressive prediction at the time, with many other outlets suggesting Corbin would earn less, but his market took off from the outset with several large-market clubs driving the bidding.

The Nats ultimately topped the Yankees (who entered as the perceived favorite) and division-rival Phillies to get a deal done. It long seemed a match with the New York club made the most sense, due not only to need and spending power but also to Corbin’s well-known roots in New York. It turns out the Yanks were unwilling to move past a $100MM offer on a five-year term, per Billy Witz of the New York Times (via Twitter). The Phillies also were stuck on five years, per Heyman (Twitter link).

Corbin’s decision to head to D.C. represents the first major move of this winter’s free agent market. He’ll join Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg to make up an imposing trio atop the Nats’ rotation — a unit that still could be supplemented with another addition. All three will be playing on nine-figure deals, representing a remarkable overall commitment to maintaining a top-level pitching staff.

This is the most significant acquisition yet for the Nats, but hardly the first. Previously, the Nationals lined up a new catching duo (Yan Gomes and Kurt Suzuki) and added a pair of relievers (Trevor Rosenthal and Kyle Barraclough). Clearly, the organization is fully committed to a run at a return to glory in 2019 and beyond. The same can be said of much of the rest of the division, setting the stage for a fascinating remaining winter of dealmaking (to say nothing of the season to come).

Because he declined a qualifying offer from the Diamondbacks, Corbin’s signing will trigger some draft pick implications. The Nats will cough up a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder as well, as they were one of two teams that paid the competitive balance tax in 2018. The D-Backs will add a sandwich round pick (after the conclusion of the first round).

It’s a big price for the Nats to pay, but they obviously felt it was worth it to add a 29-year-old pitcher who took major new strides in 2018. Corbin threw exactly 200 frames for the Snakes, working to a 3.15 ERA and — more importantly — looking every bit an ace in doing so. He ended the season with 11.1 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and a 48.5% ground-ball rate, leaving ERA estimators gawking (2.47 FIP, 2.61 xFIP, 2.91 SIERA). Notably, Corbin’s eye-popping 15.6% swinging-strike rate was orders of magnitude superior to his prior personal-best (11.0% in the season prior) and ranked as the second-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in the Majors. That occurred even as his average fastball dipped below 92 mph for the first time since he established himself as a full-time MLB starter.

The addition of Corbin at such a lofty rate will leave many to wonder whether the Nationals have moved on from Bryce Harper. The addition of Corbin’s $23.33MM annual salary will bring the Nationals’ luxury tax ledger to a bit more than $188MM for the 2019 season — about $17.9MM south of the luxury tax line. Obviously, adding Harper to the fold would tax the Nationals well north of the $206MM luxury line, but the Nationals demonstrated last year that they were comfortable crossing that threshold.

Beyond that, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has suggested that the Nats payroll could support both an extension for Anthony Rendon and a new contract for Harper. While it’s possible that the addition of Corbin could make it difficult to ultimately sign both Rendon and Harper long-term, Rizzo’s prior comments at the very least lend credence to the notion that both Corbin and Harper could coexist on an increasingly large payroll. Furthermore, as Janes tweets, the Nats’ front office knows that in order to retain Harper, ownership will need to make an “unprecedented commitment” and looks to be building up the roster while leaving a decision on Harper in the hands of the Lerner family.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #34: December 04, 2018, 05:03:55 PM »
We have essentially replaced Wieters, Gio & Madson with Gomes and Corbin. This isn't exactly us splurging.

Offline rileyn

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #35: December 04, 2018, 05:08:22 PM »
Don't fret about the terms of the deal.  He is a left handed started that we desperately needed.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #36: December 04, 2018, 05:09:08 PM »

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #37: December 04, 2018, 05:11:17 PM »
We have essentially replaced Wieters, Gio & Madson with Gomes and Corbin. This isn't exactly us splurging.

On a one-year basis, maybe (but you still need to add in Rosenthal, who would be the third member of that and does push the money up a bit).  The "splurge" part of Corbin isn't 1 year at a 23mm AAV; it's 6 of them.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #38: December 04, 2018, 05:22:48 PM »
Great move.  Actually liking what Rizzo's doing this offseason.

Offline mitlen

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #39: December 04, 2018, 05:22:54 PM »
The money I spent at the team store today put 'em over the top.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #40: December 04, 2018, 05:27:37 PM »
The money I spent at the team store today put 'em over the top.

:clap: You had 'em all the way

Offline Squab

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #42: December 04, 2018, 06:04:54 PM »
This means Ross, Fedde & whoever else will be asked to be the #5 starter rather than #4, which is huge. The more I think about it the more I like it. Worst-case he's an overpaid #3 pitcher, which is absolutely OK.

We can offset this by trading for a good pitcher and dumping Roark

Online imref

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #44: December 04, 2018, 06:35:43 PM »
Doesn’t seem like much of an overpay

If he pitches like last season, it's not. If he pitches like 2017 and 2013, it's a little bit.

If he has a ton of injuries like 2014-2016 it definitely is

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #45: December 04, 2018, 06:43:02 PM »
This is a really good analysis https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-get-another-ace-in-monster-deal-with-patrick-corbin/

Sure, if you are willing to unhesistatingly swallow a projection that places him well under his career ERA for six consecutive seasons, extending into his mid-30s. 

Again: Corbin's career ERA at age 29 is 3.91.  That projection places him at approximately a quarter of a run better over six years in his 30s.  That's not totally unheard of (Scherzer is a good example, although he went from the AL to the NL to help it out), but I'm not buying it given Corbin's career arc. 

In other words, I'm not normally one to sneer at data-based projections, but that one really made me raise an eyebrow.   

If he pitches like last season, it's not. If he pitches like 2017 and 2013, it's a little bit.

If he has a ton of injuries like 2014-2016 it definitely is

Yup.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #46: December 04, 2018, 06:47:58 PM »
:gunz:

Offline PowerBoater69

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #47: December 04, 2018, 06:48:39 PM »
This is a really good analysis https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/nationals-get-another-ace-in-monster-deal-with-patrick-corbin/

Quote
he’s only had one really good year since debuting in 2012

Fangraphs projects six good years (or at least a mix of great and decent years netting six good ones) in the same article where they note that he has had one good year out of the last five. I hope they know what they are talking about, I'm no statistician but it seems like a stretch to predict that a 29 year old pitcher will improve on average over the next six years. Of course a couple WS wins and I'll forgive five subsequent bad years.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #48: December 04, 2018, 06:48:42 PM »
I doubt Bryce returns, but I think whatever offer is currently on the table/being discussed from the Nats is still there.  If he takes it, then I think it just sets off other moves made to shed some salary elsewhere. 

This. If the billionaires want their toy they'll have it.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Nationals Sign Patrick Corbin
« Reply #49: December 04, 2018, 06:57:11 PM »
This. If the billionaires want their toy they'll have it.

Eh, I dont think the billionaires will go into the luxury tax again