Interesting article on Realmuto trades:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/But then you look at the free agent catcher market, and I don't really get the pricetag.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/Fangraphs is projecting Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal to get probably $40-50 million over 3/4 years. But they are also saying that Realmuto's value is $90 million for 2 years. That seems like a huge gap considering Realmuto is only projected to be <0.5 wins better than Grandal and ~1 win better than Ramos.

Are teams supposed to ignore the fact that Realmuto's crazy first half was partially based on a .351 BABIP, and in the second half batted .232/.307/.414?

I just don't even see it as close really. Most importantly, Kiley is saying that teams should pay a full price of $9-10 million per win in their calculation of Realmuto's value, while being able to get Ramos or Grandal at huge discounts.

**Assumptions**Cost of a win starts at $10 million and rises by 5% per season.

Realmuto is worth 4.5 wins each of the next two seasons (an increase over his 3.7-win Steamer projection)

Ramos starts at his Steamer projection of 2.8 wins, declines the standard .5 wins per year, and gets 3 years.

Grandal starts at his Steamer projection of 3.5 wins, declines the standard .5 wins per year, and gets 4 years.

**Values**Realmuto: 2 years/$92 million value (probably gets paid $15 million in arb)

Ramos: 3 years/$72 million

Grandal: 4 years/$117 million

See what I'm getting at? You can either assume that the three all receive something close to "market value" for wins (Realmuto trade assumption), or assume that catcher values are lower than the overall market (Grandal/Ramos contract assumptions). But it makes no sense at all to believe that Realmuto is worth $10 million a win while Grandal/Ramos are worth far less.

If you assume catcher wins are valued at more like $5 million, that gives you 3/$36 for Ramos and 4/$58 for Grandal, which is much closer to the Fangraphs estimates - and intuitively feels closer to what they'll get than the astronomical numbers above. But $5 million only makes Realmuto worth $46 million over 2 years, or $31 million in excess value over the $15 million he'll get paid in arbitration.

Now the truth is somewhere in between, because marginal wins are not equally valued, and Realmuto's upside has real value. But not

*$45 million* in extra value. That seems ridiculous. It means that maybe Realmuto is worth a 60-grade hitter instead of a 55-grade hitter:

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/I'd kind of be surprised if Miami ends up trading him. They turned down a Braves off of Siroka and Riley, who Fangraphs rates as a 55-pitcher and a 55-hitter. That's $60 million in value, or basically at the top end of what I think teams probably

*should *offer. And that was for an extra part of a season and postseason, which has a lot of value. I'm not sure the Braves would even offer both those guys now.

Maybe the Marlins will get lucky and some top contender will be absolutely desperate. But it shouldn't be the Nats, in my opinion.