Author Topic: Offseason Catcher Options  (Read 1703 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Offseason Catcher Options
« Topic Start: November 09, 2018, 09:28:52 AM »
Interesting article on Realmuto trades: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-you-want-to-trade-for-j-t-realmuto/

But then you look at the free agent catcher market, and I don't really get the pricetag. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2019-top-50-free-agents/

Fangraphs is projecting Wilson Ramos and Yasmani Grandal to get probably $40-50 million over 3/4 years. But they are also saying that Realmuto's value is $90 million for 2 years. That seems like a huge gap considering Realmuto is only projected to be <0.5 wins better than Grandal and ~1 win better than Ramos.

Are teams supposed to ignore the fact that Realmuto's crazy first half was partially based on a .351 BABIP, and in the second half batted .232/.307/.414?

I just don't even see it as close really. Most importantly, Kiley is saying that teams should pay a full price of $9-10 million per win in their calculation of Realmuto's value, while being able to get Ramos or Grandal at huge discounts.

Assumptions
Cost of a win starts at $10 million and rises by 5% per season.
Realmuto is worth 4.5 wins each of the next two seasons (an increase over his 3.7-win Steamer projection)
Ramos starts at his Steamer projection of 2.8 wins, declines the standard .5 wins per year, and gets 3 years.
Grandal starts at his Steamer projection of 3.5 wins, declines the standard .5 wins per year, and gets 4 years.

Values
Realmuto: 2 years/$92 million value (probably gets paid $15 million in arb)
Ramos: 3 years/$72 million
Grandal: 4 years/$117 million

See what I'm getting at? You can either assume that the three all receive something close to "market value" for wins (Realmuto trade assumption), or assume that catcher values are lower than the overall market (Grandal/Ramos contract assumptions). But it makes no sense at all to believe that Realmuto is worth $10 million a win while Grandal/Ramos are worth far less.

If you assume catcher wins are valued at more like $5 million, that gives you 3/$36 for Ramos and 4/$58 for Grandal, which is much closer to the Fangraphs estimates - and intuitively feels closer to what they'll get than the astronomical numbers above. But $5 million only makes Realmuto worth $46 million over 2 years, or $31 million in excess value over the $15 million he'll get paid in arbitration.

Now the truth is somewhere in between, because marginal wins are not equally valued, and Realmuto's upside has real value. But not $45 million in extra value. That seems ridiculous. It means that maybe Realmuto is worth a 60-grade hitter instead of a 55-grade hitter: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/valuing-the-2017-top-100-prospects/

I'd kind of be surprised if Miami ends up trading him. They turned down a Braves off of Siroka and Riley, who Fangraphs rates as a 55-pitcher and a 55-hitter. That's $60 million in value, or basically at the top end of what I think teams probably should offer. And that was for an extra part of a season and postseason, which has a lot of value. I'm not sure the Braves would even offer both those guys now.

Maybe the Marlins will get lucky and some top contender will be absolutely desperate. But it shouldn't be the Nats, in my opinion.

Offline imref

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #1: November 09, 2018, 09:33:42 AM »
I like the idea of trading for Yan Gomes if we keep Harper and signing Grandal if we don't.  Ramos is difficult to justify for a NL team given his injury history. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #2: November 09, 2018, 09:36:29 AM »
I like the idea of trading for Yan Gomes if we keep Harper.

Yeah, it seems like there are a bunch of ways for teams to get catchers this offseason without paying a king's ransom for Realmuto. At the very least it seems like contenders should be willing to pay Ramos and Grandal more than they're being projected to get, before trading away a couple top-25 prospects for Realmuto.

Offline hotshot

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #3: November 09, 2018, 09:44:52 AM »
Grandal and Ramos are WEAK defensively. Not to mention injury-prone.  JT is the opposite. As for their bats, this is an instance where I trust my eyes rather than the metrics. Grandal and Ramos can be pitched to far more easily than Realmuto (my guess is Max and Stras would agree, and we know Bryce Harper does!). Also, I expect it would have been hard not to let the Marlins dismal season affect your play (second half).

I do like the Gomes option if JT can't work out. DC, being an international city, Yan will also help get those Brazilian fans to the park.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #4: November 09, 2018, 09:50:25 AM »
Pass on Grandal, honestly. 30-year-old catcher about to get a huge payday, just seems like a possible landmine.

Offline Minty Fresh

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #5: November 09, 2018, 10:18:20 AM »
Sign Harper and move him to Catcher.  :stir:

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #6: November 09, 2018, 10:20:44 AM »
This is not to say that those guys are as good as Realmuto. The question is, which side of this would you rather have:

Realmuto for 2 years, plus whatever free agent you can get for $10 million a year to make up the difference in salary between Realmuto in arb and Ramos in free agency, or

Ramos for 3 years, plus Robles, Denaburg, and Luis Garcia (assuming that even gets a trade done considering they asked for Robles/Kieboom)

I don't think it's close, but I'm sure there are lots of people on the other side.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #7: November 09, 2018, 10:27:54 AM »
Grandal and Ramos are WEAK defensively. Not to mean injury-prone.  JT is the opposite. As for their bats, this is an instance where I trust my eyes rather than the metrics. Grandal and Ramos can be pitched to far more easily than Realmuto (my guess is Max and Stras would agree, and we know Bryce Harper does!). Also, I expect it would have been hard not to let the Marlins dismal season affect your play (second half).

I do like the Gomes option if JT can't work out. DC, being an international city, Yan will also help get those Brazilian fans to the park.
Realmuto is actually pretty poor, defensively. His pitch framing in particular is poor. If you trade for Realmuto, that's the guy you move to first base when Zimmerman gets hurt.

Offline imref

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #8: November 09, 2018, 10:40:04 AM »
NJ Ave = Zuck???

http://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2018/11/not-many-quality-catchers-available-this-winter.html

He floats the idea of signing Wieters and Suzuki for < $10 million

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #9: November 12, 2018, 09:09:13 AM »
Sign Harper and move him to Catcher.  :stir:

Have we passed each other in a grocery store

Offline hotshot

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #10: November 12, 2018, 09:23:31 AM »
Please no more Wieters. His proponents act like the last two seasons were anomalies and he's likely to revert to his 2011 form. Fact is, he's been very mediocre all-round, for at least five years. Backup catcher at a reasonable salary is all that's left for him, here or elsewhere.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #11: November 12, 2018, 09:26:17 AM »
Outside of Grandal, that's all that is available on the market for catcher

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #12: November 12, 2018, 10:10:52 AM »
Outside of Grandal, that's all that is available on the market for catcher
and Ramos. 

Interesting trade - Zunino and Guillermo Heredia for Mallex Smith.  Minor leaguers going both ways, too.  I don't think Taylor is as good as Smith (of course), but you wonder if there was a combo built around Taylor that could have netted Zunino.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #13: November 12, 2018, 10:47:00 AM »
It's pretty crazy how catcher defense stats have evolved over the years. Grandal is pretty much the best defender overall, but he is boosted by his very high framing skills. Framing is likely the most definitive part of a catcher's game since their main job is to receive pitches from the pitcher.

Hitting wise, Ramos was the best hitter, but isn't a full time catcher at all anymore. Realmuto was the best full time hitting catcher, but the difference between him and Grandal is much closer than people think. Grandal hit for lower average, but better OBP than Realmuto last year and hit more homers. Grandal though was in a walk year and Realmuto plays in a cave for a last place team with no protection.

All that being said, I'll take Grandal since it won't cost Robles.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #14: November 12, 2018, 11:32:59 AM »
I don't know who is out there, but if there were a multi-positional guy who could catch, I would like to see something like Ramos / Kieboom plus the multi-tool on the roster to give us the flexibility to pull catchers in the game for PHs or defense.  Close to what the Red Sox were doing with Vazquez and Leon during the playoffs.  Looking at out likely roster, assuming no Bryce, we could go with 4 OFs, with Taylor as the primary backup and Kendrick and the multi-tool as the 5th.  Assuming we sign a 2d baseman, figure a bench of Kendrick, Difo, Kieboom, Taylor, and the multi-positional guy who catches.  That looks a little light on PH, and you have to plan around injuries, so maybe that is the wrong mix.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #15: November 12, 2018, 12:13:07 PM »
Is stephen vogt available? BR says he's a FA in 2020 but maybe we can acquire him

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #16: November 12, 2018, 01:24:37 PM »
Is stephen vogt available? BR says he's a FA in 2020 but maybe we can acquire him

Is this serious?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #17: November 12, 2018, 02:59:26 PM »
and Ramos. 

Interesting trade - Zunino and Guillermo Heredia for Mallex Smith.  Minor leaguers going both ways, too.  I don't think Taylor is as good as Smith (of course), but you wonder if there was a combo built around Taylor that could have netted Zunino.

Ramos probably cant start with his knees

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #18: November 12, 2018, 03:02:22 PM »
Is this serious?

:lmao:

My bad.

I see he's trying to recover from shoulder surgery but probably done. Sorry. Carry on. Didn't realize he was likely cooked.

Let's just acquire like 2015 Stephen Vogt :stir:

Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #19: November 12, 2018, 07:52:52 PM »
I would've liked Zunino.

Offline Expos

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #20: November 28, 2018, 11:11:57 PM »
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports hears that the Pirates are open to trading Francisco Cervelli.

Cervelli is due $11.5 million in 2019, the final year of his current deal. He posted career highs in home runs (12) and RBI (57) this past season for the Bucs while registering a strong .259/.378/.431 overall batting line. Passan says the 32-year-old catcher is already drawing considerable interest from a number of teams who "love his OBP and makeup."


Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #21: November 28, 2018, 11:55:57 PM »
Cervelli and Suzuki? Just need a German and it's WWII all over again.

But really...them as a pair seems awfully expensive for two mediocre options together.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #22: November 29, 2018, 07:52:59 AM »
Please stop. They are not paying for another catcher.

Offline Expos

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #23: November 29, 2018, 08:35:44 AM »
Please stop. They are not paying for another catcher.

Suzuki as a starting catcher. LMAO

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Offseason Catcher Options
« Reply #24: November 29, 2018, 09:04:07 AM »
Suzuki as a starting catcher. LMAO
Didn’t say it made sense. How about Difo as the starting 2B. That makes me laugh also.