Poll

Updated - who does Harper sign with?

Nationals
22 (55%)
Phillies
12 (30%)
Padres
2 (5%)
D'backs
1 (2.5%)
White Sox
3 (7.5%)

Total Members Voted: 40

Author Topic: POLL: UPDATED: Bryce's team in 2019 will be.....  (Read 47455 times)

madj55 and 7 Guests are viewing this topic.

Online bluestreak

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This is a true story even though it fully explains my point. When I was shopping for a house when we moved to Wisconsin, we found one we loved and made what we thought was a totally fair offer. In fact we offered to overpay and put in an escalator clause. We were turned down because someone else made an offer that was higher with no contingencies.  I was upset because we really wanted the house. We were still searching 5 weeks later and had found some houses we liked quite a bit, but not as much as the first one, when our realtor called us back and said the other offer fell through and they would accept our previous offer.

What do you think we did? Were we obligated to give them that first offer? What should we have done?

Online HalfSmokes

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They don't offer a player 10 years because they are luke warm to him.

They didn't reach an agreement because of the years. It was the overall dollars.

For them to offer 10 years shows great commitment to him. And that doesn't fade because they signed Dozer.

I price my cars online. After buying, there's always the persistent salesman who keeps on trying to negotiate even after being told that I already purchased the car. Until now, I always wondered who it was that bought the second identical cars enough that the salesman thought this was a good use of their time.

Offline mitlen

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This is a true story even though it fully explains my point. When I was shopping for a house when we moved to Wisconsin, we found one we loved and made what we thought was a totally fair offer. In fact we offered to overpay and put in an escalator clause. We were turned down because someone else made an offer that was higher with no contingencies.  I was upset because we really wanted the house. We were still searching 5 weeks later and had found some houses we liked quite a bit, but not as much as the first one, when our realtor called us back and said the other offer fell through and they would accept our previous offer.

What do you think we did? Were we obligated to give them that first offer? What should we have done?

I would have declined.    Something similar happened to me with a car (not quite a house :)).

Offline nfotiu

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I can't imagine the offer was written in a way you were technically obligated.   Although, it seems like the only reason to not take the offer would be for petty reasons, and I'm guessing you took it?

Online varoadking

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It's even possible the meeting was scheduled by Boras to make it look like there was more interest than there is.

This...

Online HalfSmokes

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I would have declined.

meh, find out why the sale fell through (i.e. request the inspection and appraisal), if they won't say walk. If it was just a matter of the other buying not being able to arrange financing, offer less than the first go around and see where that gets you

Offline mitlen

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I can't imagine the offer was written in a way you were technically obligated.   Although, it seems like the only reason to not take the offer would be for petty reasons, and I'm guessing you took it?

Mine was a petty reason like, "F*** you."     :)    Then I bought a new car.

Offline nfotiu

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Mine was a petty reason like, "F*** you."     :)    Then I bought a new car.
Unless it as like a 67 Corvette, cars are basically commodities.   It's pretty easy to find a replacement option.  Their dream house in a dream location, not so much.

I guess Harper is more like the latter than the former to the Lerners though?

Offline NJ Ave

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if he is not getting an enormous payday (i.e., $250+ guaranteed) at age 26 why would he get anything close to that at age 29. i would think he's going to try to maximize his guaranteed dollar amount this time around because he's equally as likely to decline in value over the next 3 years as he is to somehow increase his value

He's not getting the payday this year because he just hit .249 and was only the fourth best position player on a non-playoff team, and 2015 was a long time ago.

I've always thought his best bet (if he can't get what he wants this year) was giving himself multiple opt-outs so if he has an MVP-level season he can opt out. There's a reason Stanton got his contract after his one MVP-level season, and suddenly had his highest trade value after his other MVP-level season.

I could be wrong, obviously, but you have to admit that this isn't all about the market rejecting long-term contracts. Part of this is about teams not believing he's an MVP-level player - mainly because he hasn't been in several years.

Offline mitlen

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Unless it as like a 67 Corvette, cars are basically commodities.   It's pretty easy to find a replacement option.  Their dream house in a dream location, not so much.

I guess Harper is more like the latter than the former to the Lerners though?

I agree on both of your points but it felt good to tell the guy to get lost.        BTW, it was a '79 Cadillac Seville.

Online bluestreak

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Unless it as like a 67 Corvette, cars are basically commodities.   It's pretty easy to find a replacement option.  Their dream house in a dream location, not so much.

I guess Harper is more like the latter than the former to the Lerners though?

The thing was, that was the first house we bid on. Once we were sent back into the market, we realized there were other houses we would have been almost as happy with. So then it became an dollars and cents decision and not an emotional one.

Offline Baseball is Life

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They don't offer a player 10 years because they are luke warm to him.

They didn't reach an agreement because of the years. It was the overall dollars.

For them to offer 10 years shows great commitment to him. And that doesn't fade because they signed Dozer.

On this we agree. I think they are still interested in him. But you and I don't really know. So let's stop pretending we do.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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He's not the best comparable, but JD Martinez signed a 5 year deal with a player opt out after 2 years if he hit certain milestones.  You could possibly see a face-saving, 5 year deal at > $30MM/yr, say 5/$160MM, so he can get the highest position player AAV, coupled with an opt out after two years if he hits .300 in both years.  Maybe 3 years for the opt-out, so he's here for the rest of Max's contract.  The team avoids the perils of longer term commitments.  Lerners, as is their wont, might even defer $40MM or so, or structure so he gets that if he does not opt out.

Offline Greg_SRT

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On this we agree. I think they are still interested in him. But you and I don't really know. So let's stop pretending we do.

Not once have I acted as if I had inside knowledge.

Only that 1+1=2

Offline Baseball is Life

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The thing was, that was the first house we bid on. Once we were sent back into the market, we realized there were other houses we would have been almost as happy with. So then it became an dollars and cents decision and not an emotional one.

Negotiation should never been an emotional issue or you're at a severe disadvantage. In your case, if I still wanted that old house, I would have renegotiated and probably offered less knowing they shopped around and couldn't get what they wanted for whatever reason. Which is perhaps where Mr. Harper finds himself right now.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Not once have I acted as if I had inside knowledge.

Only that 1+1=2

No, you just come across as very confident in your views.

Offline Baseball is Life

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It seems pretty established that 10/300 was on the table.  They had to have known that he wasn't going to take it at that point.   You don't risk injury and all that to go that close to free agency and then take the offer from your team, especially if you are repped by Boras.

So, the motivation was either 1) a token offer to appease the fans, or 2) it was offered like "Here's our offer, go shop around and see what's out there.  We'll keep the offer open, if you agree to let us try to match any better offers.".  Or another option was that 3)they thought they were making an aggressive offer, and said take it or leave it up to the start of free agency.   The second option seems most likely to me,  followed by the first, and the 3rd option just doesn't seem consistent with how the Lerners have treated Harper.

#3 seems most likely to me. $300M/10 years is a very aggressive offer by most counts.

Offline UMDNats

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He's not getting the payday this year because he just hit .249 and was only the fourth best position player on a non-playoff team, and 2015 was a long time ago.

I've always thought his best bet (if he can't get what he wants this year) was giving himself multiple opt-outs so if he has an MVP-level season he can opt out. There's a reason Stanton got his contract after his one MVP-level season, and suddenly had his highest trade value after his other MVP-level season.

I could be wrong, obviously, but you have to admit that this isn't all about the market rejecting long-term contracts. Part of this is about teams not believing he's an MVP-level player - mainly because he hasn't been in several years.

i agree - basically i was saying he's got the potential to be a perennial MVP player still because he's young enough and in 3 years of more up-and-down play he will be even less likely to get paid

Offline NJ Ave

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i agree - basically i was saying he's got the potential to be a perennial MVP player still because he's young enough and in 3 years of more up-and-down play he will be even less likely to get paid

Right. My assumption is what would work best for him would be multiple opt-outs that give him the best chance to hit the market right after one of those "ups". I agree that if he did something like 4.1 WAR, 6.8 WAR, 3.7 WAR and then hit the market that would not be great for him.

Offline nfotiu

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Right. My assumption is what would work best for him would be multiple opt-outs that give him the best chance to hit the market right after one of those "ups". I agree that if he did something like 4.1 WAR, 6.8 WAR, 3.7 WAR and then hit the market that would not be great for him.
I don't see the risk/reward financially of doing short term/option contracts.  Turning down 300 million now, he'd have to take a pretty good discount to get the options you are mentioning.   Salaries have been flat for 4 years.  The best he could possibly hope for is 2 mvp level seasons, and he's not getting a rich 10 year contract at 28.  At best he gets slightly over 300 million including the 2 short term years.  If he takes a short term deal, it will be with a team he really wants to play on.

Offline NJ Ave

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I don't see the risk/reward financially of doing short term/option contracts.  Turning down 300 million now, he'd have to take a pretty good discount to get the options you are mentioning.   Salaries have been flat for 4 years.  The best he could possibly hope for is 2 mvp level seasons, and he's not getting a rich 10 year contract at 28.  At best he gets slightly over 300 million including the 2 short term years.  If he takes a short term deal, it will be with a team he really wants to play on.

It's really unclear that he has a $300 million deal on the table, and my suggestion is based on him *not* having one on the table. If all he has is something like 8/$250 on the table, I think there's a number you can get to in terms of short term AAV where he could come out comfortably ahead if he has an MVP season and heads into free agency.

If he made $75 million over 2 years and then became a free agent MVP heading into his age-28 season, I have a hard time believing he wouldn't still get 7 or 8 years at $30-35 million.

Offline DCFan

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Unless it as like a 67 Corvette, cars are basically commodities.

Had one!  Roadster with a 327-300 engine, sidepipes, 4 sp, hardtop and convertible. Sweet car! :clap:

Online rileyn

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That tweet to me means he has an offer that will not be a complete embarrassment to him.  I think he is just trying to build up more hype for his decision.  This also leads me to believe it will not be a return to Washington.

Offline Baseball is Life

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That tweet to me means he has an offer that will not be a complete embarrassment to him.  I think he is just trying to build up more hype for his decision.  This also leads me to believe it will not be a return to Washington.

Or he could have been loading weights. :shrug:

Offline imref

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Or he could have been loading weights. :shrug:

he's having a big plate of pasta