Author Topic: 2018 Major League Draft  (Read 2067 times)

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Online GNatsNoMore

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2018 Major League Draft
« Topic Start: May 29, 2018, 02:50:11 PM »
The draft is coming up next week already!  Anyone  have any good info on prospects or projections/guesses about who the Nats might pick?

Draft order:
http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order

MLB's top 200 prospects:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018/?list=draft

There are supposedly a lot of good lefty pitchers:

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-prospects-with-best-tools-among-lefties/c-278659370


Online imref

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #1: May 29, 2018, 02:57:46 PM »
The draft is coming up next week already!  Anyone  have any good info on prospects or projections/guesses about who the Nats might pick?

Someone coming off an injury who's stock has fallen, or a head-case relief pitcher. :)

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #2: May 29, 2018, 10:15:56 PM »
who would have been the top pick but for tommy john surgery.  That's who Rizzo will grab.

Online varoadking

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #3: May 29, 2018, 10:17:42 PM »
who would have been the top pick but for tommy john surgery.  That's who Rizzo will grab.

He'll trade up to get him too...

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #4: June 04, 2018, 09:48:49 PM »
Mason Denaburg

Mason Denaburg | Rank: 24
School: Merritt Island (Fla.) HS   Year: Senior
Position: RHP   Age: 18 DOB: 08/08/1999
Bats: R Throws: R   Height: 6'3" Weight: 190 lb.
Commitment: Florida
Watch
Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

There were several question marks regarding Denaburg, even after a strong summer showcase showing that ended with helping USA Baseball's 18-and-under team win a gold medal. Was he a pitcher or a position player? Would he want to do both at the University of Florida. An accomplished kicker and punter, would he want to keep playing football in college? All of those were trumped somewhat by a biceps issue that sidelined him this spring.

One of the questions seemingly answered is about his desire to pitch. Denaburg had been a catcher when not on the mound, but he'd moved out to the outfield as a senior and seems dedicated to a future as a hurler, though the chance to play two ways for the Gators might still be out there for him. He's been up to 97 mph in the past with his fastball, sitting around 94, throwing it with good life down in the zone. When he stays on top of it, his power breaking ball has nasty break and finish to it, and he shows feel for a solid changeup as well.

There's some upside here to unlock, given Denaburg's split focus, both because of his two-way history on the diamond and his time spent on the gridiron. He has a good, strong body that reminds some of John Smoltz, with a chance for his stuff to jump once he concentrates on his craft full-time. Returning to the mound in May helped prove he's healthy and cement that he has serious first-round potential.

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #5: June 04, 2018, 09:49:14 PM »
@RD give me a run down.

Offline houston-nat

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #6: June 04, 2018, 09:52:10 PM »
FanGraphs had Denaburg going 16th:

"TLDR
Denaburg came out of the chute hot, then missed over a month with biceps tendonitis, then came back almost as good as before last week in front of dozens of high level scouts.

Full Report
Denaburg is a legitimate pro prospect as a catcher, but it's clear that he fits best on the mound. His stuff was at it's best early in the spring when he was heavily scouted in a matchup with Carter Stewart. Denaburg was up to 97 mph with one of the most consistently 60-grade breaking balls in recent memory, which he located well. He came back last week after he missing a month with biceps tendinitis and while the curveball wasn't all the way back (expected), his changeup took center stage, flashing above average and striking out Triston Casas twice in the region final. As important as the pure quality Denaburg's breaking stuff is, his ability to keep it down beneath the strike zone, and to his glove side is also significant. He'll be able to attack both-handed hitters in that spot as soon as he steps on a pro mound. He's a high-ceiling high school arm who had some injury problems this spring. He's in teams' mixes in the 16-25 range."

In the live chat, Kiley McDaniel (FG analyst and former Braves prospect guy) said:
Hey one of the best players in baseball was available at 26th overall imagine that
Heard the Nats weren't on Denaburg late, now here they are taking him. Guess that was a smokescreen

Offline RD

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #7: June 04, 2018, 11:10:55 PM »
@RD give me a run down.

I don't think I'm anymore qualified to break him down than anyone else, but I like the pick. The background as a two way threat and multi sport guy mean he hasn't been focused 100% on pitching. 1, I think that's less wear and tear on the arm and 2, the stuff is obvious despite probably needing more work being consistent with his mechanics.

He was a guy that was mocked to us before the draft, so I had seen some things him. The interesting thing I saw is he had two distinct deliveries the past two years. He essentially pitched out of the stretch with a short step as a junior, but had a more traditional windup as a senior. I don't know when the change occurred but I wonder if there were some release point inconsistencies that maybe led to the bicep tendinitis that apparently caused a mini slide for him. I could see short arming the ball being an issue that potentially played a role. Total speculation on my part, just throwing it out there.

It's not a perfect comparison, but loosely I thought of Jack Flaherty as a comp for Denaburg. Similar frames and athleticism coming out, plus the whole two way role possibly limiting some development on the mound. Denaburg may have a more explosive fastball at te same point though.

He's a good looking kid though. Just needs the reps. Good frame with the ability to fill out a bit, a good athlete, and despite not focusing on pitching full time, has a powerful arsenal and a delivery that is easily repeatable. Picking st the end of the round, I don't know if you could do much better from a talent perspective.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #8: June 05, 2018, 12:03:09 AM »
2nd Round: Tim Cate LHP UConn
After two strong seasons, Cate was considered a sure-fire first-round pick, perhaps even a top-15 pick. The forearm tightness that cost him nearly two months and a little off his fastball, changed that. He is not big, and there would be questions about durability. But in his late-season return, he again showed the curveball that many scouts consider the best in the draft — and teams really love the 12-to-6 curveball nowawdays. A consensus of opinions have him going within the top 60. MLB.com’s mock draft has him going No. 40 to the Royals.

Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #9: June 05, 2018, 12:39:09 AM »
Can we move this to the main forum? I know these guys aren't big league yet, but this should be the future and the draft is happening right now. Move it back here once it is done.

Let's no police ourselves out of existence here...

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #10: June 05, 2018, 08:56:33 AM »
Can we move this to the main forum? I know these guys aren't big league yet, but this should be the future and the draft is happening right now. Move it back here once it is done.

Let's no police ourselves out of existence here...
I'll post a link in the clubhouse. 

I wonder what impact injury history has on signability.  On the one hand, you think these guys may want to grab the money quickly, especially the high schoolers, rather than have the injury get to the point where they can't play. OTOH, especially for the college juniors and juco guys, maybe they figure play another year in school and they can bounce back to the top half of the first round.  It's almost as if the guys who sign are willing to bet against themselves, so it is a signal of a worse health issue than the guys who are tougher signings.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #11: June 05, 2018, 10:37:39 AM »
The 2011 and 2012 draft threads added up to 82 pages. This one barely made it off the ground.

The joys of a winning team,

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #12: June 05, 2018, 11:55:56 AM »
The 2011 and 2012 draft threads added up to 82 pages. This one barely made it off the ground.

The joys of a winning team,

Kind of surprised at the lack of hype on the WNFF.

Good to see Kevrock back posting again.

Online imref

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #13: June 05, 2018, 11:59:28 AM »
Kind of surprised at the lack of hype on the WNFF.

Good to see Kevrock back posting again.

there was something else going on in DC last night + low draft pick = little interest

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #14: June 05, 2018, 01:03:59 PM »
So he's a John Smoltz clone and he'll be ready for next April.?  Count me in Floyds!!

Offline Squab

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #15: June 05, 2018, 02:16:45 PM »
With their 3rd Round pick, 101st overall, the Washington Nationals selected right-hander Reid Schaller out of Vanderbilt. Schaller went undrafted out of high school after dealing with injury issues, and underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him his first year.

Schaller put up a 4.05 ERA, eight walks, 36 Ks, and a .290 BAA in 26 2⁄3 IP this season.

“He’s super intriguing,” Jim Callis said on the MLB.com broadcast of the Draft. “This is a guy who could have been drafted out of high school in Indiana a couple years ago. Low 90s with a fastball, but he had kind of a series of nagging injuries and he was committed to Vanderbilt, it’s hard to sign guys away from there especially if they don’t go super-high in the Draft.”

https://www.federalbaseball.com/2018/6/5/17430320/2018-mlb-draft-washington-nationals-select-reid-schaller-with-3rd-round-pick-101st-overall

Looks like a hard-throwing reliever.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #16: June 05, 2018, 02:18:06 PM »
Oh god look at his arm action, you can see why he's had injuries, that's the shortest arm action I've ever seen
https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1004056615379750912

Online imref

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #17: June 05, 2018, 02:18:06 PM »
NatsGM posted his take: http://natsgm.com. - Compares Denabug with Dane Dunning, projected as a 3-4 starter.  Cate as a #5 or relief arm

Quote
The conclusion of Day 1 leaves me conflicted with Washington’s results.  I like both Denaburg and Cate as prospects and feel like both, particularly Denaburg, were good values where they were selected. Washington again seems to be showing a preference for arms and fortunately the pitching depth is ample this year.  Unfortunately both pitchers have injury concerns attached to them, and my preference would have been for Washington to go in a safer direction with each pick.

At #27 I would have run to the podium to select University of Florida RHP Jackson Kowar, an impressive pitcher with no past arm injuries but similar talent to Denaburg.  Rather than Cate, at pick #65 I would have preferred pitchers like LSU’s Zach Hess at LSU, South Carolina’s Adam Hill or Arkansas’s Blaine Knight.  Ideally, Washington would have taken Florida high school SS Nander De Sedas, as he is a top-20 talent for me in this crop.

While impossible to judge draft picks 12 hours after the fact, Washington did a fine job acquiring two promising pitching prospects to add to a farm system lacking in pitching depth.  My major quibble involves the injury risk Washington is taking on with these two pitchers, when safer prospects with similar upside were still available.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #18: June 05, 2018, 02:31:47 PM »
Oh god look at his arm action, you can see why he's had injuries, that's the shortest arm action I've ever seen
https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1004056615379750912





Hi JCA  :D

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #19: June 05, 2018, 02:38:44 PM »
NatsGM posted his take: http://natsgm.com. - Compares Denabug with Dane Dunning, projected as a 3-4 starter.  Cate as a #5 or relief arm

I feel like it's a little hard to take seriously because other reputable places had some of those guys below the guys the Nats took, and also because the world isn't simply composed of SEC pitchers, as NatsGM seems to indicate in his preferences. :)

Unless there is evidence of a serious reach, I think our scouting department has probably earned a little deference to who they choose within various reasonable ranges of similar prospects. In other words, if they're picking 50th overall and they take the 56th ranked prospect over the 49th ranked prospect, I'm fine with that.

Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #20: June 05, 2018, 02:47:29 PM »
Wish there was more info on these guys.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #22: June 05, 2018, 03:18:25 PM »
Wish there was more info on these guys.

Here's Keith Law on Reid Schaller:

71. Reid Schaller, RHP, Vanderbilt. Schaller is a draft-eligible freshman who threw just 25 innings for the Dores this year after missing 2016 and 2017 due to Tommy John surgery ... but he's been up to 99 mph with heat that sits 94-97, and he has a great pitcher's body with an arm action he can repeat. He needs innings, and he probably should throw more sliders to take advantage of his arm speed. He's really intriguing despite the lack of innings under his belt.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #23: June 05, 2018, 03:28:05 PM »
Wish there was more info on these guys.

MLB.com's write-up on Gage Canning. 5th round pick from Arizona State.

Quote
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45

Canning has been a starter at Arizona State since the start of his freshman year and has improved his performance each season, hitting .269 as a freshman, then improving to .332 in his sophomore year. He's saved his best for last as one of the better performers in Division I this spring.

The 5-foot-11 left-handed hitter has put up the best numbers of his career as a junior, with teams that particularly covet college performers taking notice. Canning can really swing it with a line-drive approach and has extra-base ability, though it's never likely to be major home run power. He does have some swing and miss in his game, though his walk rate has gone up this season to help offset it. While Canning has excellent speed, he has not been an efficient basestealer. After playing corner outfield spots his first two seasons, he's showing he can play center field and should get the chance to play there at the next level.

Canning gets respect from scouts as being a "baseball player," one who can do the little things to help a team win. His performance in his junior season has set him up to come off the board in the top five rounds.

Offline Glockypoo

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Re: 2018 Major League Draft
« Reply #24: June 05, 2018, 03:29:38 PM »
Wish there was more info on these guys.

4th round pick Jake Irvin out of U of Oklahoma.

Quote
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Sean Hjelle and Irvin were the two best high school pitching prospects in Minnesota in 2015, and the tall right-handers both spurned pro interest to attend college. They've blossomed into two of the more dependable starters in power conferences, with Hjelle a possible first-rounder out of Kentucky and Irvin likely to go in the first five rounds. He moved into Oklahoma's rotation midway through his freshman season and has been a mainstay ever since, with the exception of missing two starts with shoulder inflammation as a sophomore.

Though he looks the part of a power pitcher at an athletic 6-foot-6 and 225 pounds, Irvin doesn't have overpowering stuff. His fastball parks at 90-92 mph and peaks at 95, featuring armside run and a bit of sink. He relies heavily on his heater and a short slider in the low 80s, rarely using his serviceable changeup.

Though he has a long arm action that can affect the consistency of his secondary pitches, Irvin has improved his control and command throughout his college career. There's little effort in his delivery and he repeats it well. His stuff may be as good as it's going to get, making his floor as a back-of-the-rotation starter or middle reliever stand out more than his ceiling.