Author Topic: Roster Moves (2018)  (Read 29678 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #125: May 01, 2018, 09:42:05 AM »
Was Stevenson ever part of the OF future? He's also been projected to be, at best, a 5th OFer/defensive replacement type.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #126: May 01, 2018, 10:29:33 AM »
Was Stevenson ever part of the OF future? He's also been projected to be, at best, a 5th OFer/defensive replacement type.
and that is fine.  If he rides the shuttle back and forth to Syracuse (or wherever we will have our AAA club once they switch affiliations) until he burns through his options, that OK in my book.  He's not even Brian Goodwin, let alone Soto / Robles.

Online Mattionals

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #127: May 01, 2018, 10:31:50 AM »
Was Stevenson ever part of the OF future? He's also been projected to be, at best, a 5th OFer/defensive replacement type.

I always thought the plan as of last year was Soto/Robles/Eaton left to right. I always felt that Goodwin and Taylor were only temporary pieces on the Nats, but the Nats couldn't keep their standard OF healthy, so they got more playing time. Because Goodwin and Taylor became starters, Stevenson was brought up as a reserve OF. Probably wouldn't have gotten to the bigs until next season if all the guys above him stayed healthy.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #128: May 01, 2018, 12:07:29 PM »
Was Stevenson ever part of the OF future? He's also been projected to be, at best, a 5th OFer/defensive replacement type.
Never inferred that he was projected as a starter

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #129: May 01, 2018, 12:11:47 PM »
and that is fine.  If he rides the shuttle back and forth to Syracuse (or wherever we will have our AAA club once they switch affiliations) until he burns through his options, that OK in my book.  He's not even Brian Goodwin, let alone Soto / Robles.

It's not a great result for a guy who was a second round pick from an SEC school.  He's also already burned through one option year, and this one is the second - so he'll only have one option year left next season.

Online Mattionals

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #130: May 01, 2018, 12:57:17 PM »
It's not a great result for a guy who was a second round pick from an SEC school.  He's also already burned through one option year, and this one is the second - so he'll only have one option year left next season.

Isn't the hit rate on 2nd rounders like 49% make it to the majors?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #131: May 01, 2018, 01:03:58 PM »
Isn't the hit rate on 2nd rounders like 49% make it to the majors?
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Offline welch

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #132: May 01, 2018, 01:30:01 PM »
Was Stevenson ever part of the OF future? He's also been projected to be, at best, a 5th OFer/defensive replacement type.

As best I remember, yes, Stevenson was projected to be about 4th OF if -- I mean, IF -- he learns to hit. Supposed to be a good fielder, high average, not much power. Of course, that's memory from 2016, before the team tried him during the OF injury-blitz last season.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #133: May 01, 2018, 02:54:28 PM »
Isn't the hit rate on 2nd rounders like 49% make it to the majors?
but a 3+ year career of being an AAAA backup outfielder is making it to the show.

Online Mattionals

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #134: May 01, 2018, 02:58:47 PM »
but a 3+ year career of being an AAAA backup outfielder is making it to the show.

To be more specific, what I meant was that most 2nd round picks never make it to the majors. I have no clue what the percentage of that 49% contribute more than say 5 WAR over their career. My guess is that even with Stevenson being a second round pick, his talent was never going to be more than a AAAA guy or at best 4th OF. Considering that the question was asked if Stevenson was part of the OF plan long term, he wasn't more than just organizational depth.

Offline catocony

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #135: May 01, 2018, 03:08:54 PM »
Stevenson is only 24, so he's ahead of where Goodwin was at his age - and a lot of other guys.  He's about where Taylor was at the same age.  Remember when he was striking out every other at-bat?

Offline Section214

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #136: May 01, 2018, 03:20:03 PM »
Stevenson is young, ++ speed ++ in the OF. Plenty of time to prove to be an every day OF. Luckily for us, I don't think it will happen here due to depth, but I think he is a great bench OF at this stage..

Any scouting report of Wander Suero? Knockout slider is all I have seen.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #137: May 01, 2018, 03:20:59 PM »
Stevenson is only 24, so he's ahead of where Goodwin was at his age - and a lot of other guys.  He's about where Taylor was at the same age.  Remember when he was striking out every other at-bat?

Yep. Stevenson will be paid to play for the next 10 years

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #138: May 01, 2018, 03:28:09 PM »
Stevenson's floor is a AAAA guy who can fill-in and bounce around the majors. In a pinch you can throw him out there in LF or CF for a month and maybe he BABIP's his way to .280/.350/.400

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #139: May 01, 2018, 03:34:03 PM »
It's not a great result for a guy who was a second round pick from an SEC school.  He's also already burned through one option year, and this one is the second - so he'll only have one option year left next season.

Total 2nd round players with 3+ career WAR, by draft year

2005: 5
2006: 5
2007: 5
2008: 5
2009: 8
2010: 6
2011: 2
2012: 1
2013: 0
2014: 0
2015: 0

3 career WAR is a pretty low bar, and you can still see that the hit rate is maybe 20% if you consider that a "hit". I would say that a 4th OF who can give you 1 WAR or so is a "hit" from the second round.

The world needs ditch diggers, too.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #140: May 01, 2018, 03:38:21 PM »
This is probably a mindfact but I'd bet a large % of 2nd-round picks are college seniors who will sign for cheap to make up for high-bonus 1st-rounders. Hence, low-ceiling, high-floor guys who maybe peak at AAAA.

Offline dracnal

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #141: May 01, 2018, 03:45:30 PM »
This is probably a mindfact but I'd bet a large % of 2nd-round picks are college seniors who will sign for cheap to make up for high-bonus 1st-rounders. Hence, low-ceiling, high-floor guys who maybe peak at AAAA.

It'd also be worth checking into how many of those 2nd round picks go unsigned and are later drafted again by a different team.

Offline catocony

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #142: May 01, 2018, 04:18:21 PM »
This is probably a mindfact but I'd bet a large % of 2nd-round picks are college seniors who will sign for cheap to make up for high-bonus 1st-rounders. Hence, low-ceiling, high-floor guys who maybe peak at AAAA.

So, in a 50-round draft, that doesn't include foreign players from the Dominican and such, you equate 2nd-rounders to fodder?  That would be NBA second rounders, or NFL 7th rounders, or MLB 35+ rounders.  Guys drafted in the second round get $1 million+ signing bonuses.  As an example, here's last year's second rounders.

37. MIN - Landon Leach, RHP, Pickering HS (Canada)
$1,400,000 (Pick value: $1,846,100)
Starting assignment: TBD
38. CIN - Stuart Fairchild, OF, Wake Forest
$1,800,300 (Pick value: $1,802,800)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Billings
39. SD - Luis Campusano-Bracero, C, Cross Creek HS (Ga.)
$1,300,000 (Pick value: $1,760,700)
Starting assignment: TBD
40. TB - Michael Mercado, RHP, Westview HS (Calif.)
$2,132,400 (Pick value: $1,714,500)
Starting assignment: TBD
41. ATL - Drew Waters, OF, Etowah HS (Ga.)
$1,500,000 (Pick value: $1,674,600)
Starting assignment: TBD
42. PIT - Steven Jennings, RHP, DeKalb County HS (Tenn.)
$1,900,000 (Pick value: $1,635,500)
Starting assignment: TBD
43. OAK - Greg Deichmann, OF, Louisiana State
Has not signed (Pick value: $1,597,300)
Starting assignment: TBD
44. ARI - Drew Ellis, 3B, Louisville
$1,560,100 (Pick value: $1,560,100)
Starting assignment: TBD
45. PHI - Spencer Howard, RHP, Cal Poly San Luis Obispo
$1,150,000 (Pick value: $1,523,800)
Starting assignment: TBD
46. MIL - Caden Lemons, RHP, Vestavia Hills HS (Ala.)
$1,450,000 (Pick value: $1,493,500)
Starting assignment: TBD
47. LAA - Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA
$1,459,200 (Pick value: $1,459,200)
Starting assignment: TBD
48. COL - Ryan Vilade, 3B, Stillwater HS (Okla.)
$1,425,400 (Pick value: $1,425,400)
Starting assignment:
49. CWS - Gavin Sheets, 1B, Wake Forest
$2,000,000 (Pick value: $1,392,200)
Starting assignment:
50. PIT - Calvin Mitchell, OF, Rancho Bernardo HS (Calif.)
$1,357,300 (Pick value: $1,357,300)
Starting assignment: GCL Pirates
51. MIA - Joe Dunand, 3B, North Carolina State
$1,200,000 (Pick value: $1,326,800)
Starting assignment: Short-Season Class A Greensboro
52. KC - MJ Melendez, C, Westminster HS (Fla.)
$2,097,500 (Pick value: $1,295,700)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Missoula
53. HOU - Joe Perez, 3B, Archbishop McCarthy HS (Fla.)
$1,600,000 (Pick value: $1,265,500)
Starting assignment: TBD
54. NYY - Matt Sauer, RHP, Righetti HS (Calif.)
$2,500,000 (Pick value: $1,236,000)
Starting assignment: TBD
55. SEA - Sam Carlson, RHP, Burnsville HS (Minn.)
$2,000,000 (Pick value: $1,206,900)
Starting assignment: TBD
56. HOU - Corbin Martin, RHP, Texas A&M
$1,000,000 (Pick value: $1,178,600)
Starting assignment: TBD
57. DET - Reynaldo Rivera, OF, Chipola Junior College
$850,000 (Pick value: $1,148,400)
Starting assignment: Connecticut (Short Season)
58. SF - Jacob Gonzalez, 3B, Chaparral HS (Ariz.)
$950,000 (Pick value: $1,121,300)
Starting assignment: TBD
59. NYM - Mark Vientos, 3B, American Heritage HS (Fla.)
$1,500,000 (Pick value: $1,094,700)
Starting assignment: TBD
60. BAL - Adam Hall, SS, Lucas HS (Canada)
$1,300,000 (Pick value: $1,068,700)
Starting assignment: TBD
61. TOR - Hagen Danner, C, Huntington Beach HS (Calif.)
$1,500,000 (Pick value: $1,043,200)
Starting assignment: TBD
62. LAD - Morgan Cooper, RHP, Texas
Has not signed (Pick value: $1,018,200)
Starting assignment: TBD
63. BOS - Cole Brannen, OF, Westfield HS (Ga.)
$1,300,000 (Pick value: $993,900)
Starting assignment: GCL Red Sox
64. CLE - Quentin Holmes, OF, Monsignor McClancy HS (N.Y.)
Has not signed (Pick value: $969,900)
Starting assignment: TBD
65. WAS - Wil Crowe, RHP, South Carolina
$946,500 (Pick value: $946,500)
Starting assignment: TBD
66. TEX - Hans Crouse, RHP, Dana Hills HS (Calif.)
$1,450,000 (Pick value: $926,500)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL Rangers
67. CHC - Cory Abbott, RHP, Loyola Marymount
$901,900 (Pick value: $901,900)
Starting assignment: TBD

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #143: May 01, 2018, 04:18:44 PM »
Total 2nd round players with 3+ career WAR, by draft year

2005: 5
2006: 5
2007: 5
2008: 5
2009: 8
2010: 6
2011: 2
2012: 1
2013: 0
2014: 0
2015: 0

3 career WAR is a pretty low bar, and you can still see that the hit rate is maybe 20% if you consider that a "hit". I would say that a 4th OF who can give you 1 WAR or so is a "hit" from the second round.

The world needs ditch diggers, too.

"Not great" means just that,  not great.  It's an ok result, but nothing more.  You get a AAAA guy and that's fine, but AAAA guys are available for free at the major league minimum every offseason.  It'll also be interesting to see how the numbers you posted above evolve in the era of slot bonuses.  I may be mindfacting a bit, but a few of those successes in the past likely were guys who slipped a bit due to signability, so the hit rate on true second round talents may actually be lower.   

I suppose I just take the view that the second round is a little high to be drafting guys who are high floor, low ceiling types.  I don't remember what the buzz was on Stevenson when he was drafted, but the pedigree suggests his attributes should have been very well known, and it's really not that hard to find guys who can play CF but can't hit - which Stevenson has never done above Potomac.  Looking back, though, his selection makes a bit more sense: the Nats had 2 second round picks that year and no first.  Stevenson was one, and the other was Blake Perkins, who is a low-floor, high ceiling guy at the same position. 

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #144: May 01, 2018, 04:33:22 PM »
Thanks for the research on that. It's a one-year sample and it's very possible things changed when they changed the slot system recently. Also possible I'm just a moron.

I never said 2nd-rounders were fodder FWIW. I was mindfacting that a lot of college guys get taken in the 2nd and those players tend to be high-floor, low-ceiling players, which is a archetype that lends itself to a lot of AAAA guys.

Offline catocony

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #145: May 01, 2018, 04:43:00 PM »
Here are the 2016 numbers.  Do you need the 2015 numbers as well, or is the fact that 2nd rounders get paid huge signing bonuses clear to you?  Did you know that there are 50 rounds to each draft, which doesn't include foreign players?  If you thumb your nose at 2nd rounders, where does that put the remaining 48 rounds and all of the foreign players? 

The Nats have had a large percentage of their 1st rounders pan out into star players.  Zimmerman, Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Storen.  They've had 1st round busts, like in 2006 (Colten Willems and Chris Marrero).  They've had guys in the middle, like Detwiler.  They've had guys traded, like Meyer and Giolito. 

42. PHI - Kevin Gowdy, RHP, Santa Barbara Sr HS (Calif.)
$3,500,000 (Pick value: $1,536,200)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Phillies
43. CIN - Chris Okey, C, Clemson
$2,000,000 (Pick value: $1,497,500)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Billings
44. ATL - Kyle Muller, LHP, Jesuit College Prep (Texas)
$2,500,000 (Pick value: $1,459,700)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Braves
45. COL - Ben Bowden, LHP, Vanderbilt
$1,600,000 (Pick value: $1,422,900)
Starting assignment: Class A Asheville
46. MIL - Lucas Erceg, 3B, Menlo College
$1,150,000 (Pick value: $1,386,900)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Helena
47. OAK - Logan Shore, RHP, Florida
$1,500,000 (Pick value: $1,351,800)
Starting assignment: TBD
48. SD - Buddy Reed, OF, Florida
$1,075,000 (Pick value: $1,317,800)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Tri-City
49. CWS - Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma
$1,284,500 (Pick value: $1,284,500)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL White Sox
50. SEA - Joe Rizzo, 3B, Oakton HS (Va.)
$1,750,000 (Pick value: $1,252,100)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL Mariners
51. BOS - C.J. Chatham, SS, Florida Atlantic
$1,100,000 (Pick value: $1,232,800)
Starting assignment: TBD
52. ARI - Andrew Yerzy, C, York Mills Collegiate Institute (Ont.)
$1,214,100 (Pick value: $1,214,100)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level Missoula
53. TB - Ryan Boldt, OF, Nebraska
$997,500 (Pick value: $1,195,500)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Hudson Valley
54. BAL - Keegan Akin, LHP, Western Michigan
$1,177,200 (Pick value: $1,177,200)
Starting assignment: TBD
55. CLE - Nolan Jones, 3B, Holy Ghost Prep School (Pa.)
$2,250,000 (Pick value: $1,159,200)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL Indians
56. MIN - Ben Rortvedt, C, Verona Area HS (Wis.)
$900,000 (Pick value: $1,141,600)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Twins
57. TOR - J.B. Woodman, OF, Ole Miss
$975,000 (Pick value: $1,124,000)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Vancouver
58. WAS - Sheldon Neuse, 3B, Oklahoma
$900,000 (Pick value: $1,107,000)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Auburn
59. SF - Bryan Reynolds, CF, Vanderbilt
$1,350,000 (Pick value: $1,090,000)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Salem-Keizer
60. LAA - Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford HS (Ga.)
$1,073,300 (Pick value: $1,073,300)
Starting assignment: TBD
61. HOU - Ronnie Dawson, OF, Ohio State
$1,056,800 (Pick value: $1,056,800)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Tri-City
62. NYY - Nick Solak, 2B, Louisville
$950,000 (Pick value: $1,040,800)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Staten Island
63. TEX - Alex Speas, RHP, McEachern HS (Ga.)
$1,024,900 (Pick value: $1,024,900)
Starting assignment: TBD
64. NYM - Pete Alonso, 1B, Florida
$909,200 (Pick value: $1,009,200)
Starting assignment: Class A Short Season Brooklyn
65. LAD - Mitchell White, RHP, Santa Clara University
$588,300 (Pick value: $993,800)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL Dodgers
66. TOR - Bo Bichette, SS, Lakewood HS (Fla.)
$1,100,000 (Pick value: $978,600)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Blue Jays
67. KC - AJ Puckett, RHP, Pepperdine University
$1,200,000 (Pick value: $963,700)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level AZL Royals
68. PIT - Travis Macgregor, RHP, East Lake HS (Fla.)
$900,000 (Pick value: $948,900)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Pirates
69. BAL - Matthias Dietz, RHP, John A. Logan College (Ill.)
$1,300,000 (Pick value: $934,400)
Starting assignment: TBD
70. STL - Connor Jones, RHP, Virginia
$1,100,000 (Pick value: $920,100)
Starting assignment: Rookie-level GCL Cardinals

By the way, the 2016 numbers are from July 2016, so some guys signed after that date.  The same for 2017 numbers.  These are drafts after the slotting system was created (not the Pick value) next to each actual signing bonus number.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #146: May 01, 2018, 05:16:19 PM »
To be more specific, what I meant was that most 2nd round picks never make it to the majors. I have no clue what the percentage of that 49% contribute more than say 5 WAR over their career. My guess is that even with Stevenson being a second round pick, his talent was never going to be more than a AAAA guy or at best 4th OF. Considering that the question was asked if Stevenson was part of the OF plan long term, he wasn't more than just organizational depth.
I thought the average value of a late 1st round pick was something like $5MM a few years ago.  About a half WAR or maybe a little better?  2d rounders must be less.

It's old, but here's an estimate of the value in WAR of picks.  By the time you get to pick #30, it's around 4 WAR for a career. 
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-changing-value-of-draft-picks/

It looks like a 2d is around 3 WAR.  I suppose that's an average and not a mean, where the few successful ones make up for a lot of misses. 

Offline welch

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #147: May 01, 2018, 05:36:02 PM »
Here is what WNFF members thought of Stevenson about two years ago until last year.

http://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=32922.50

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #148: May 01, 2018, 05:39:42 PM »
Here are the 2016 numbers.  Do you need the 2015 numbers as well, or is the fact that 2nd rounders get paid huge signing bonuses clear to you?  Did you know that there are 50 rounds to each draft, which doesn't include foreign players?  If you thumb your nose at 2nd rounders, where does that put the remaining 48 rounds and all of the foreign players? 

Not sure why you are condescending and attacking me when i clearly said "i may be mindfacting that a lot of 2nd round picks are college guys"

i'm not even arguing any point i'm just wondering the statistics. which you provided with some random commentary. not sure what i did to piss you off

13 of the 28 or whatever picks signed over-slot. more than i expected. 17 total were college guys, fewer than i expected.

but no, thank you for telling me the draft is 50 rounds. had no idea!

Offline Squab

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Re: Roster Moves (2018)
« Reply #149: May 19, 2018, 11:38:22 PM »
Quote
Juan Soto being called up to the #Nats, a source with knowledge of the situation confirmed. He is expected to join the Nats in D.C. for sunday
https://twitter.com/masnKerr/status/998041847305039872 :shock: