Poll

The NL East winner will be (votes close 9/1):

Barves
10 (38.5%)
Phillies
6 (23.1%)
Nats
4 (15.4%)
Mets
2 (7.7%)
do the Marlins still count?
4 (15.4%)

Total Members Voted: 26

Voting closes: September 01, 2018, 02:36:33 PM

Author Topic: NL East (2018)  (Read 28771 times)

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Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9200
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #25: March 04, 2018, 04:28:28 PM »
Yawn...we'll win the division by double digit games again. Nobody else is sniffing 85 wins and we might break 100.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 12404
  • 2018: The Fight for .500
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #26: March 04, 2018, 06:43:42 PM »
Last I looked, the Mets starters are DeGrom and Syndegaard. Two aces. Matz might never make it. Matt Harvey looked to be mediocre and spiraling downward. Wheeler is done. Lineup? Jay Bruce is a good hitter. Rest of the infield is weak. Is Conforto playing? (His shoulder was bad...). Cespedes cannot stay healthy.

Mets could be 85 wins if Jake and Thor hold up, so, probably 10 wins behind the Nats.

Offline rileyn

  • Posts: 2733
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #27: March 11, 2018, 05:29:43 PM »
Arrieta to the Phillies.  How does this impact this years race?

Offline dcpatti

  • Posts: 2894
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #28: March 11, 2018, 05:59:45 PM »
Arrieta to the Phillies.  How does this impact this years race?

The Mets have wild card aspirations, which are now  a bit harder. If our team stay strong relatively healthy and doesn’t have a massive regression, this doesn’t really hurt us. A little more competition in the division is probably a good thing.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 14454
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #29: March 11, 2018, 06:01:46 PM »
Arrieta to the Phillies.  How does this impact this years race?

division is ours if we are healthy and playing at a comparable level to last year. Marlins are tanking, Braves are meh still. Phillies are better and Mets basically are praying on the health of their arms.

Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9200
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #30: March 11, 2018, 08:14:34 PM »
Arrietta isn't what he used to be. Not afraid of him at all.


Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #32: March 12, 2018, 08:37:29 AM »
Speaking of ascendant Phillies:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-phillies-rebuilt-like-the-cubs-and-astros-can-they-win-like-them/
Not convinced they are that close yet. They lack home grown guys with a high ceiling. They have no one like Bryant or Correa. They are in much better shape than a couple years ago.

Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9200
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #33: March 13, 2018, 02:13:54 PM »
Yeah I don't get the fuss over the Phillies just yet. Who is there Rizzo/Bryant or Altuve/Springer/Correa? Everyone's hyping Hoskins but he could easily be one of those young guys who hits a ton of homers early and then phases out as teams figure out his swing(see Jeff Francouer among others).

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19494
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #34: March 13, 2018, 02:21:16 PM »
Yeah I don't get the fuss over the Phillies just yet. Who is there Rizzo/Bryant or Altuve/Springer/Correa? Everyone's hyping Hoskins but he could easily be one of those young guys who hits a ton of homers early and then phases out as teams figure out his swing(see Jeff Francouer among others).

the recent pattern is tear down and jump almost immediately (at least the successful pattern, plenty of teams just perpetually suck), and writers both want to talk about the next team to do it (Houston and Chicago are old news), but not walk too far out on a limb, so they form a consensus about the 'next' team. The same thing happens with writers in other sports

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #35: March 13, 2018, 02:26:02 PM »
the recent pattern is tear down and jump almost immediately (at least the successful pattern, plenty of teams just perpetually suck), and writers both want to talk about the next team to do it (Houston and Chicago are old news), but not walk too far out on a limb, so they form a consensus about the 'next' team. The same thing happens with writers in other sports
They have moved up in the last couple of years in the farm system ratings. After being near the bottom. Doesn't mean it will happen for them. Some people are hyping Atlanta also. They have quite a few good prospects. The Phillies have lots and lots of money to spend under the cap. It's probably a matter of them being able to convince a top free agent next summer that they are close.

I don't know much about Franvouer's minor league stats but Hoskins did well at every level. He has a good eye and discipline at the plate. He won't continue to hit home runs at the pace he did last year.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3217
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #36: March 13, 2018, 02:27:15 PM »
Speaking of ascendant Phillies:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-phillies-rebuilt-like-the-cubs-and-astros-can-they-win-like-them/

That's the most LOL thing I've heard in a while. I mean, congrats to the Phillies on incrementally improving themselves from a bottom 5 farm system in 2013, but it's 5 years later and they JUST cracked the top 5 farm systems.

If any team in our division looks like they're poised to be the next Cubs/Astros (two teams that each STACKED themselves with prospects and spent several years as top-ranked farm systems) its the Braves. Braves were 6 games better last season and here's how their combined top 14 prospects rank (by Fangraphs):

ATL
PHI
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
PHI
ATL
ATL

So have fun with that rebuild, Phils.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #37: March 13, 2018, 02:30:59 PM »
That's the most LOL thing I've heard in a while. I mean, congrats to the Phillies on incrementally improving themselves from a bottom 5 farm system in 2013, but it's 5 years later and they JUST cracked the top 5 farm systems.

If any team in our division looks like they're poised to be the next Cubs/Astros (two teams that each STACKED themselves with prospects and spent several years as top-ranked farm systems) its the Braves. Braves were 6 games better last season and here's how their combined top 14 prospects rank (by Fangraphs):

ATL
PHI
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
ATL
PHI
ATL
ATL

So have fun with that rebuild, Phils.
looking at wins from year to year is not proof of anything. The Phillies over performed their run differential two years ago. They were more like a 65 win team that won lots of close games to surpass that. So they were slightly better in 2017 than in 2016.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3217
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #38: March 13, 2018, 02:34:50 PM »
looking at wins from year to year is not proof of anything. The Phillies over performed their run differential two years ago. They were more like a 65 win team that won lots of close games to surpass that. So they were slightly better in 2017 than in 2016.

My point is that it's silly to call the Phils the next Cubs/Astros when they're not even the best positioned team to become the next Cubs/Astros in their own division.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #39: March 13, 2018, 02:39:16 PM »
My point is that it's silly to call the Phils the next Cubs/Astros when they're not even the best positioned team to become the next Cubs/Astros in their own division.
I think the reason the experts are focusing on the Phillies is that they seem to be postioning themselves to be a little better this year which could help them sign Machado or Harper. The Braves have zero chance to sign those guys.

The guy I really like is Kingery. College bat that has hit at all levels. He will begin the year on Triple A so they can keep him under team control for another year. I expect him up and playing at 2B or 3B by June.

Offline dcpatti

  • Posts: 2894
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #40: March 13, 2018, 05:46:31 PM »
After striking out on 11 of 19 plate appearances and racking up a .056 batting average, Tebow has been cut from the Mets training camp and reassigned to the minor league camp.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19494
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #41: March 13, 2018, 06:27:05 PM »
After striking out on 11 of 19 plate appearances and racking up a .056 batting average, Tebow has been cut from the Mets training camp and reassigned to the minor league camp.

I wonder what he did to anger baby Jesus

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #42: March 13, 2018, 06:42:18 PM »
I wonder what he did to anger baby Jesus
He actually angered teenage Jesus.  You know the one you don't read much about. 

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 19053
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #43: March 13, 2018, 06:44:11 PM »
He was a sulky mess.

He actually angered teenage Jesus.  You know the one you don't read much about.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #44: March 13, 2018, 06:57:56 PM »
He was a sulky mess.
That's why, like Ricky Bobby, I always choose baby Jesus.

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 19053
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #45: March 13, 2018, 07:01:44 PM »
Or the Dirty Old Bum Jesus.

That's why, like Ricky Bobby, I always choose baby Jesus.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #46: March 13, 2018, 07:04:46 PM »
Or the Dirty Old Bum Jesus.
That's a good one too.

Phillies GM said today no more signings--who knows if that is true or not.  Maybe the Nats will swoop in and sign Cobb.

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 19053
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #47: March 13, 2018, 07:08:19 PM »
That's a good one too.

Phillies GM said today no more signings--who knows if that is true or not.  Maybe the Nats will swoop in and sign Cobb.

I'll bet they wait until mid-season.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 12115
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #48: March 13, 2018, 07:14:15 PM »
I'll bet they wait until mid-season.
Depends where he ends up I suppose.  And contract length.

Offline GburgNatsFan

  • Posts: 19053
Re: NL East (2018)
« Reply #49: March 13, 2018, 09:00:26 PM »
Depends where he ends up I suppose.  And contract length.

I didn't mean for him necessarily, I meant to pick up  another #3 kind of starter.