MLB & Division Watching (2018)

[Vega]

Eric Hosmer has signed an 8-year deal, $144m with the Padres. Has opt-out after 5 years. Padres have not confirmed.

There's their equivalent of the Werth contract.

[skippy1999]

There's their equivalent of the Werth contract.

But do they have a Strasburg or Bryce waiting in the wings?

[Vega]

But do they have a Strasburg or Bryce waiting in the wings?

Dunno. They do have a Zimm equivalent in Myers.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Offensively, Myers is more like Mark Reynolds than he is Zimmerman.

[Vega]

Offensively, Myers is more like Mark Reynolds than he is Zimmerman.

I was more just making the comparison based on him being the de facto best player on the team who has been around for a while. Does Clayton Richard count as their John Lannan equivalent, or is he too crappy for that to work?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Apparently the Rays have been inspired by the Marlins. They just traded Jake Odorizzi to the Twins for SS prospect Jermaine Palacios (not ranked by Baseball America), got Cron from the Angels for a PTBNL, and DFA’ed Corey Dickerson, who, in all fairness, cratered after the All Star break last season but wasn’t on anyone’s short list of “likely to be DFA’ed.”

I'm a Cron fan. 

[imref]

JD Martinez to Boston.

[NJ Ave]

JD Martinez to Boston.

So this is so interesting to me. So if the LAST five years of Bryce Harpers free agency are worth 5/$110 million, how much are the FIRST five years worth? Because the last five years just got paid to JD Martinez. Unless the first five year later are worth $290 million, he’s not getting $400 million in this environment.

[bluestreak]

Would Bryce sign for 1/$45-50?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So this is so interesting to me. So if the LAST five years of Bryce Harpers free agency are worth 5/$110 million, how much are the FIRST five years worth? Because the last five years just got paid to JD Martinez. Unless the first five year later are worth $290 million, he’s not getting $400 million in this environment.

brother was saying it is front loaded with $25MM/yr for the first two, with an opt out, and the last 3 at $20Mm. I guess this sets the AAV at $22MM, less than the cash flow but good for the luxury tax situation the Red Sox are in.  They also saved a couple of million on the Nunez contract ($4MM a year for 2 years, but structured with a player's opt out of the 2d year for $2MM, so in effect it is 1 year, $6MM).  They take the extra hit in year 2 if Nunez opts out, but in year 1, they save $5MM towards the luxury tax (I forget their bracket) with the 2 contracts.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

I was more just making the comparison based on him being the de facto best player on the team who has been around for a while. Does Clayton Richard count as their John Lannan equivalent, or is he too crappy for that to work?

I had honestly forgotten that Clayton Richard was back with them.  The Padres are that meaningless to me.

[HalfSmokes]

So this is so interesting to me. So if the LAST five years of Bryce Harpers free agency are worth 5/$110 million, how much are the FIRST five years worth? Because the last five years just got paid to JD Martinez. Unless the first five year later are worth $290 million, he’s not getting $400 million in this environment.

I never underestimate the capacity for stupid from a single MLB owner on a marquee free agent. JD Martinez is a very good player, but he's doesn't have any star power. Harper is one of the biggest stars in the game. That shouldn't matter, but all it takes is one owner for it to matter

[NJ Ave]

I never underestimate the capacity for stupid from a single MLB owner on a marquee free agent. JD Martinez is a very good player, but he's doesn't have any star power. Harper is one of the biggest stars in the game. That shouldn't matter, but all it takes is one owner for it to matter

This is true. And last time a guy like Harper was available A-Rod doubled the previous high contract. But there was no luxury tax then and valuation was a lot less precise. He also isn't A-Rod who was a flawless player - A-Rod had averaged 7.1 WAR his previous 5 seasons, Bryce is currently averaging 4.8 for his last 4 and would need a 16 WAR season to match A-Rod. I'm not saying he won't get $400 million but it'll be interesting to me.

[Mattionals]

Phillies are in contact with Arrieta supposedly. Phillies want him on lower years, and I just couldn't see Arrieta going on a three year deal even for 30 Million a season. That team might be contending in 3 years, but that is a gamble. I know Santana already gambled, and I didn't get that deal either.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Phillies are in contact with Arrieta supposedly. Phillies want him on lower years, and I just couldn't see Arrieta going on a three year deal even for 30 Million a season. That team might be contending in 3 years, but that is a gamble. I know Santana already gambled, and I didn't get that deal either.

opt outs are valuable to players and will allow them to sign for fewer total dollars.

[Natsinpwc]

Phillies are in contact with Arrieta supposedly. Phillies want him on lower years, and I just couldn't see Arrieta going on a three year deal even for 30 Million a season. That team might be contending in 3 years, but that is a gamble. I know Santana already gambled, and I didn't get that deal either.

Apparently no one is offering him 4 years. I really couldn't see giving him more than 2 years based on his age and decline.

[Mattionals]

opt outs are valuable to players and will allow them to sign for fewer total dollars.

Santana signed a straight 3 year deal worth 60 Million though, so he has no opt outs. Same would go for what Philly has floated to Arrieta, a three year deal. Without an opt out, these deals are big money, but don't give the player longevity on a team, which is great for the team. I would have to guess the same as Natsinpwc said, which is that if no one is offering Arrieta four years or more, I believe he wanted 6+, then he is basically going to do what Santana did and take the money. Philly might just turn the corner this year, but overall they have young unproven talent. If they break right, it could be a great team, but I just don't see them overthrowing others in the NL right now, and I think a safe estimate is that the Phillies are competing for the wildcard or division in 3 years time, just when Santana and the floated Arrieta contract would run out. If either player wants a championship, odds aren't in their favor to sign with Philly right now unless they sign a long deal.

[HalfSmokes]

opt outs are valuable to players and will allow them to sign for fewer total dollars.

Arrieta seems like a player who should take security over optionality. He was really good for two years, followed by a good year, followed by an ok year. Before that run, he was horrendous

[NJ Ave]

Arrieta seems like a player who should take security over optionality. He was really good for two years, followed by a good year, followed by an ok year. Before that run, he was horrendous

He also lost 2.5 MPH off his peak two years ago and has dropped 1 MPH plus each of the last two seasons. He’s an extremely risky signing and should have taken the Cubs offer.

[bluestreak]

He also lost 2.5 MPH off his peak two years ago and has dropped 1 MPH plus each of the last two seasons. He’s an extremely risky signing and should have taken the Cubs offer.

I do not believe that the Cubs gave him a viable offer. They know him best and likely could have signed him what what they gave Darvish. I think they floated the rumor that they made him a perfunctory offer to 1) Help him out so it didn't torpedo his chances of getting signed elsewhere and 2) Convince a competitor to overpay for him.
As you mentioned the fact that he is losing velocity is very concerning.

[Natsinpwc]

I know you guys want to watch baseball. Phillies and Tampa. Tampa University that is.

https://portal.stretchinternet.com/tampa/portal.htm?eventId=428397&streamType=video

[OldChelsea]

Phillies are in contact with Arrieta supposedly. Phillies want him on lower years, and I just couldn't see Arrieta going on a three year deal even for 30 Million a season. That team might be contending in 3 years, but that is a gamble. I know Santana already gambled, and I didn't get that deal either.

Phillies may well be opening their wallet...the other day on one of the FM-106.7 talk shows someone was saying that they might actually be in the race to get Harper.

[NJ Ave]

Phillies may well be opening their wallet...the other day on one of the FM-106.7 talk shows someone was saying that they might actually be in the race to get Harper.

Phillies clearly will spend when they think they can be competitive - until 5 years ago they were a top-5 payroll. Frankly we're lucky that the Phillies have had an inept rebuild and the Mets and Braves have self-imposed payroll restrictions.

[Natsinpwc]

Phillies clearly will spend when they think they can be competitive - until 5 years ago they were a top-5 payroll. Frankly we're lucky that the Phillies have had an inept rebuild and the Mets and Braves have self-imposed payroll restrictions.

The rebuild is not inept. They were just in denial for too long.

[dcpatti]

Lincecum to the Rangers. Deal is reportedly 1 year, not sure how much money. He'll go to the bullpen, possibly closer.