2018 Projections

[comish4lif]

The PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus are out today. They do estimate playing time, so, no sign of Moises Sierra.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=WAS

[JCA-CrystalCity]

"Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example."

for example, I don't think Raudy Read will hit his projected playing time.

[bluestreak]

The PECOTA projections from Baseball Prospectus are out today. They do estimate playing time, so, no sign of Moises Sierra.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?tm=WAS

Ok good. If he gets 400+ plate appearance something has gone, horribly, horribly wrong.

[OldChelsea]

The NLeast is soft?

The presence of the Marlins does bring with it at least some softening.

[bluestreak]

Who the hell is Moises Sierra? They have him projected for 500 plate appearances and I’ve never heard of him.

Good Lord. I guess I’m an idiot.

[awbb]

Good Lord. I guess I’m an idiot.

Nah, just not aware of the midnight zone of depth the Nats need to descend to, to field 4 relatively healthy outfielders.

[Mathguy]

Not if we use a measure of the number of wins vs losses in the entire division.  For there to be more wins than losses division wide, those extra wins have to be coming from another division - a weaker division.  As of today, the NL East has 99 wins vs 90 losses.

The NLeast is soft?

[bluestreak]

I will bump this to keep up with projections as they are updated with results from the season.

-Fangraphs is the most bullish on the Nats’ playoffs chance. 82% to win division and 90% to make playoffs and a 10.7% chance to win the World Series.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

-FiveThirtyEight has the Division odds for the Nats at 56%, Playoff odds at 70% and odds to win the World Series at 7%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

-Baseball Prospectus has the Nats at 50% to win the division and 67% to make the playoffs and 8.8% to win the World Series.

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Fangraphs takes preseason projections into account more than the other models on the theory that preseason projections most accurately reflect the underlying talent level of the team.

I was looking at the schedule. The Nats have played a harder schedule and by the end of this month will be done with their west coast trips. I think they are well positioned for the rest of the season as they get players back.

[bluestreak]

Baseball Prosepctus: 47% to win division, 9% to win WS
Fangraphs: 79% to win division, 10% to win WS
FiveThirtyEight: 55% to win division, 8% to win WE