Author Topic: 2018 Projections  (Read 1393 times)

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Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #1: January 03, 2018, 02:22:08 PM »
I am not sure why the expect both Harper and Rendon to be worse than last year. Harper dealt with significant injury and Rendon had an awful, awful April. I agree that Zimmerman and Murphy will likely see some regression, though maybe not as much as Steamer projects. I don't think Taylor will regress nearly as much as that projection though. Wieters and Turner almost have to get better I would imagine, and Eaton, who knows?

Offline skippy1999

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #2: January 03, 2018, 02:25:27 PM »
How accurate were there projections last year, does anyone know?

Offline Mathguy

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Offline rileyn

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #4: January 06, 2018, 06:45:36 AM »
I think Boswell is writing off the Mets much too quickly.  If their starting pitching bounces back and Cespedes stays healthy, they can be tough.   The Phillies are going to be better as well.

Offline Optics

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #5: January 06, 2018, 10:45:23 AM »
I like our roster. The only real major drop off candidates are Zimmerman and Murphy. I think Zimm its just a question of being healthy, if healthy he'll produce. Murphy though is gonna be hitting that decline, but we do have Difo to platoon with him. Remember though that Eaton will replace Werth and that's a HUGE upgrade. Harper and Rendon will be fine. I don't see Taylor dropping off that much, maybe a little, and remember we have Robles who could explode. Stras will be just as dominant, if not more so if he's completely healthy(I think he's due for that monster ~20 win Cy Young type season), Scherzer might have a slight drop off but I think he'll be fine too. Bullpen won't suck as much with the big arms back plus Glover healthy.

We'll win 100 games this year. After that though, who knows.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #6: January 06, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »
I am not sure why the expect both Harper and Rendon to be worse than last year. Harper dealt with significant injury and Rendon had an awful, awful April. I agree that Zimmerman and Murphy will likely see some regression, though maybe not as much as Steamer projects. I don't think Taylor will regress nearly as much as that projection though. Wieters and Turner almost have to get better I would imagine, and Eaton, who knows?

I would expect Harper to get hurt again. He's made it through one season so far without a nagging injury of some kind.

Rendon also tapered off the last two months of the season. I would expect some tapering next season.

Honestly, this lineup's biggest problem is going to be health. Michael Taylor is really the only person who hasn't had major DL or injury problems the last three seasons.

We'll win 100 games this year. After that though, who knows.
Assuming health, yes. Heck, even with all the injuries last year, had this team had MAdson and Doolittle to start the season, it probably wins 100 games.

Offline rileyn

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #7: January 07, 2018, 07:25:32 AM »
I like our roster. The only real major drop off candidates are Zimmerman and Murphy. I think Zimm its just a question of being healthy, if healthy he'll produce. Murphy though is gonna be hitting that decline, but we do have Difo to platoon with him. Remember though that Eaton will replace Werth and that's a HUGE upgrade. Harper and Rendon will be fine. I don't see Taylor dropping off that much, maybe a little, and remember we have Robles who could explode. Stras will be just as dominant, if not more so if he's completely healthy(I think he's due for that monster ~20 win Cy Young type season), Scherzer might have a slight drop off but I think he'll be fine too. Bullpen won't suck as much with the big arms back plus Glover healthy.

We'll win 100 games this year. After that though, who knows.

Not sure why you forecast Murphy to drop off.  Keep in mind that his hitting guru, Kevin Long, will now be with him every day.  If he stays healthy (big if) I expect a big year.  Taylor is the one that concerns me.......I'm still not convinced he is the guy, but as you mentioned, Robles is waiting in the wings. 

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #8: January 07, 2018, 08:19:25 AM »
Not sure why you forecast Murphy to drop off.  Keep in mind that his hitting guru, Kevin Long, will now be with him every day.  If he stays healthy (big if) I expect a big year.  Taylor is the one that concerns me.......I'm still not convinced he is the guy, but as you mentioned, Robles is waiting in the wings.

Murphy is coming off major knee surgery, is going to be 33 on April 1, and has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball for the past two years. I’d say he is a prime candidate for a drop off.

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #9: January 10, 2018, 09:06:33 PM »
Anyone who subscribes to Baseball Prospectus want to provide a summary of this article?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37007/rubbing-mud-nationals-complicated-past-present-future/


Offline varoadking

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #10: January 10, 2018, 09:54:33 PM »

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #11: January 11, 2018, 09:34:45 AM »
The NLeast is soft?

Yet we had a better record against the MLB last season. Might be a mind fact. I don't think so though.

I don't think you can be so relaxed in the playoffs, wait for "your pitch" as much as our guys do.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #12: January 11, 2018, 09:47:20 AM »
Yet we had a better record against the MLB last season. Might be a mind fact. I don't think so though.

I don't think you can be so relaxed in the playoffs, wait for "your pitch" as much as our guys do.
I believe that that was in reference to the individual players mentioned, not the team as a whole. Also, I think to truly do any kind of analysis, you'd have to come up with some sort of tiering system for the opposing pitcher they faced, and see how they performed against those tiers.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #13: January 11, 2018, 11:51:37 AM »
Yet we had a better record against the MLB last season. Might be a mind fact. I don't think so though.

I don't think you can be so relaxed in the playoffs, wait for "your pitch" as much as our guys do.

0.644 vs East
0.559 vs. Central
0.656 vs West

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #14: January 11, 2018, 11:56:20 AM »
0.644 vs East
0.559 vs. Central
0.656 vs West

.400 vs Games that mattered

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #15: January 11, 2018, 12:02:27 PM »
I believe that that was in reference to the individual players mentioned, not the team as a whole. Also, I think to truly do any kind of analysis, you'd have to come up with some sort of tiering system for the opposing pitcher they faced, and see how they performed against those tiers.

Right, plus a decent sample size. I'd like to read the report to see his reasoning. It does make intuitive sense that playing weaker opponents will inflate individual numbers. Do the Cy Young voters factor in the average OPS of batters faced over the course of the season?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #16: January 11, 2018, 12:18:06 PM »
.400 vs Games that mattered

What is the purpose of this post? Does anyone on this forum not know that the Nats lost to the Cubs in 5 games in the NLDS? Was this meant to provide useful information or simply to try to suck any enjoyment out of discussion on this forum? 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #18: February 07, 2018, 04:11:08 PM »
What is the purpose of this post? ...Was this meant to provide useful information or simply to try to suck any enjoyment out of discussion on this forum? 

Man, I could just cut and paste this for a lot of posts.  ;)

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #19: February 07, 2018, 04:24:35 PM »
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-projections-washington-nationals/

Who the hell is Moises Sierra? They have him projected for 500 plate appearances and I’ve never heard of him.

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #20: February 07, 2018, 04:28:12 PM »
Who the hell is Moises Sierra? They have him projected for 500 plate appearances and I’ve never heard of him.

Nationals signed OF Moises Sierra to a minor league contract.  Tue, Dec 19, 2017 10:28:00 PM
Sierra has put on a show this offseason with the Gigantes del Cibao of the Dominican Winter League, but he last appeared in a major league game in 2014 and the 29-year-old outfielder will simply serve as Triple-A depth with Washington in 2018.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #21: February 07, 2018, 04:46:13 PM »
Who the hell is Moises Sierra? They have him projected for 500 plate appearances and I’ve never heard of him.

Read the footnotes.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #22: February 07, 2018, 04:55:58 PM »
Nationals signed OF Moises Sierra to a minor league contract.  Tue, Dec 19, 2017 10:28:00 PM
Sierra has put on a show this offseason with the Gigantes del Cibao of the Dominican Winter League, but he last appeared in a major league game in 2014 and the 29-year-old outfielder will simply serve as Triple-A depth with Washington in 2018.

Career minus 0.3 WAR. I'm so excited.

Offline Baseball is Life

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #23: February 07, 2018, 05:17:03 PM »
Career minus 0.3 WAR. I'm so excited.

Hey, the Nats used De Asa for 70 PAs last year.

Offline comish4lif

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Re: 2018 Projections
« Reply #24: February 07, 2018, 06:51:47 PM »
Read the footnotes.
"Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2017. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example."