Author Topic: The Weather (2018)  (Read 6593 times)

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Offline imref

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The Weather (2018)
« Topic Start: January 02, 2018, 10:56:24 PM »
A seriously massive winter storm is poised to hit the upper east coast on Friday with potentially hurricane force winds and large snow totals from Delaware to New England.  Latest NAM models are showing significant potential snowfall south through Richmond.

wxrisk is freaking out:

Quote
*** ALERT *** !!!    WHAT I AM ABOUT TO SHOW/ TELL  YOU WILL  FREAK SOME OF YOU    - in  a new  and stunning  developmwent  the  0z   3km NAM  model came out   45 minutes ago  showing MASSIVE increases in  SNOW  amounts for all of central and     and  eastern NC   VA   all of the Delmarva ... into southern NJ and Long Island  ..  the Model shows  18-22"  of snow in   all of  Hampton Roads     12 inches in RIC    up into the Northern neck / Middle Peninsula .... and  18"  over the   Lower MD / VA  eastern shore   

****    THIS IS  PROBABLY  OVER DONE     ****  BUT   even if it is over done by 50%  this is still A  big increase in snow aMounts***   

Obviously the next question is whether not this has any chance of being close to reality or has this particular weather model lost its mind.   What's important notice here is that the storm is going to absolutely explode as the forms off the southeast US coast and because the weather models are tracking it closer to the coast and this trend has been going on for some time ...this solution is in fact quite possible.

This is very  similar   in the last minute  shifts   to what we saw with the January 25, 2000 Middle Atlantic snowstorm.

In addition last winter when we had  the blizzard of January 22-24 2016 there was a lot of uncertainty with regard to how much snow was going to fall over NYC / Long Island / CT .  In 24 hours before the event began  3Km the high resolution NAM  model suddenly jumped 1 to 2 feet of snow northward by 50 to 75 miles and put NYC  in the 1 to 2 feet snow band and this extended into all of Long Island and Southern Connecticut.

This may be what we asre seeing here over eastern and Central North Carolina Virginia and the Delmarva as well as Southern New Jersey.

If you notice on the map yo  will  moderate accumulating snow getting close to Washington DC Northern Virginia as well as up near Philadelphia interior New Jersey and York City.  This is also quite possible but again on the northwest side  of the LOW  the snow shield will be eaten up by the severely dry arctic air and the envy a sinking air.  So it is still uncertain as to whether not areas such as Philadelphia Northern New Jersey and York City are going to see 4-8  inches or 6 to 10 inches of snow

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #1: January 02, 2018, 11:01:54 PM »
A seriously massive winter storm is poised to hit the upper east coast on Friday with potentially hurricane force winds and large snow totals from Delaware to New England.  Latest NAM models are showing significant potential snowfall south through Richmond.

wxrisk is freaking out:

The weather channel has none of this for Richmond...

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #2: January 02, 2018, 11:16:10 PM »
We might get snow again tomorrow :woop:

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #3: January 02, 2018, 11:22:01 PM »
The weather channel has none of this for Richmond...

Give them some time. Models just ran around 10pm ish.

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #4: January 02, 2018, 11:28:05 PM »
Give them some time. Models just ran around 10pm ish.

Sounds like some lonely people trying to get noticed.  Did the 538 guys move over to wxrisk?   :P

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #5: January 02, 2018, 11:42:19 PM »
Sounds like some lonely people trying to get noticed.  Did the 538 guys move over to wxrisk?   :P

Well, since you had trouble understanding 538 giving Trump a 30% chance of winning, I wouldn't want to confuse with wxrisk's record of storm prediction. :)


Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #7: January 03, 2018, 12:10:27 AM »
Take it to politics.


No need...but I will delete it...

Online Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #8: January 03, 2018, 07:06:49 AM »
Cold. That's the weather. Cold.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #9: January 03, 2018, 07:57:07 AM »
Cold. That's the weather. Cold.

Friday is looking brutal.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #10: January 03, 2018, 08:21:56 AM »
Friday is looking brutal.
A balmy 3 in Cincy now. Actually didn't feel that bad. Maybe I am getting used to it. Supposed to go up to 25 today but I don't believe it. People have stunned looks but I think that is from the Marvin Lewis extension and not the cold.

Online Slateman

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #11: January 03, 2018, 08:36:58 AM »
A balmy 3 in Cincy now. Actually didn't feel that bad. Maybe I am getting used to it. Supposed to go up to 25 today but I don't believe it. People have stunned looks but I think that is from the Marvin Lewis extension and not the cold.
I think this is just the state of Ohio beating you into submission. Like an abused spouse, or a hooker that has come to love an abusive pimp/mada'm. Stockholm Syndrome.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #12: January 03, 2018, 09:11:21 AM »
Yesterday, my brother took his stepson, wife, and their kid to Logan at 4:30 AM.  The car thermometer was -10 degrees F.  It is southern New Hampshire, but it is only about 10 miles off the coast so you'd expect some moderation.  When I hit Dunkins at about 8 AM, it was still -2.  Got back to VA, and it was warmer outside than I've seen nearly 2 weeks.

Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #13: January 03, 2018, 09:33:29 AM »
via WxSouth:


Offline imref

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #14: January 03, 2018, 09:34:25 AM »
A balmy 3 in Cincy now. Actually didn't feel that bad. Maybe I am getting used to it. Supposed to go up to 25 today but I don't believe it. People have stunned looks but I think that is from the Marvin Lewis extension and not the cold.

:rofl:  Looks like it will be in the high 40s by Sunday.  8)

Offline 1995hoo

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #15: January 03, 2018, 09:34:35 AM »
Apparently it's snowing in Tallahassee this morning. Not sticking based on the tweets I saw, but I'd love to see someone filming their drivers reacting to it.

Our relatives in Fort Myers (where we were for Christmas with 80° weather) sent a screenshot of their weather forecast for Thursday night showing a low of 36° with 7-mph winds. I pointed out to them that's a windchill of 30°.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #16: January 03, 2018, 10:36:36 AM »
Apparently it's snowing in Tallahassee this morning. Not sticking based on the tweets I saw, but I'd love to see someone filming their drivers reacting to it.


My daughter and her family are driving there right now from Orlando, my son in law has a meeting tomorrow morning in Tally so he was going to take my grandson to an FSU basketball game tonight that they're not even sure is still going to be held but they're driving anyway and hoping by the time they get there it'll have warmed up enough to get rid of the icy roads :nervous:

Offline Mathguy

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #17: January 03, 2018, 12:13:36 PM »
"The Sky Is Falling" is the prevailing thought here in OBX over the coming storm.  It's worse than the overreaction when I lived in the DC area, except the population size is smaller, so there will be less side effects.  On my way home tonight, I expect drivers to be blaring their horns because I'm only driving 30mph (15mph under the speed limit).

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #18: January 03, 2018, 12:15:18 PM »
I think this is just the state of Ohio beating you into submission. Like an abused spouse, or a hooker that has come to love an abusive pimp/mada'm. Stockholm Syndrome.
Could be. Virginia beat me into one state of submission years ago. And now another.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #19: January 03, 2018, 12:16:11 PM »
:rofl:  Looks like it will be in the high 40s by Sunday.  8)
Looks that way. Rain in the forecast Monday. About time the cold snap breaks.

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #20: January 03, 2018, 02:46:43 PM »
"The Sky Is Falling"

imref's forte'...  ;)

Offline varoadking

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #21: January 03, 2018, 03:59:07 PM »
Give them some time. Models just ran around 10pm ish.

So...still looking for that 12" of snow in the Richmond forecast...  :whistle:

Offline mitlen

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #22: January 03, 2018, 04:48:56 PM »
I gotta tee time tomorrow.     Grayson better not mess it up.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #23: January 03, 2018, 04:56:36 PM »
Brother's house is 10 miles from the NH coast.  I'm hoping he keeps his power.  Dad already sleeps under an afghan, a blanket, and heavy fur-lined cover.  There's a few more blankets in the house, but I don't know how he'll keep warm and I wonder what he will eat if the microwave and the electric stove go out.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather (2018)
« Reply #24: January 03, 2018, 05:02:33 PM »
Brother's house is 10 miles from the NH coast.  I'm hoping he keeps his power.  Dad already sleeps under an afghan, a blanket, and heavy fur-lined cover.  There's a few more blankets in the house, but I don't know how he'll keep warm and I wonder what he will eat if the microwave and the electric stove go out.

Yikes, no generator I take it?  Do they have a wood burning fireplace?