At Winterfest Mike Rizzo stated that the Nats were under the competitive balance tax for 2017, which contradicts reports from AP and the Washington Post. So far I've seen no follow-up reports over the past three weeks over an issue that could greatly affect the Nats plans for this offseason. The Talk Nats blog has reported a rumor that the Nats have appealed the MLB determination of the valuation of the Nats payroll based on how the annual average value (AAV) was calculated for the Strasburg and Sherzer contracts.
I'm not sure of the possible point of dispute for the Scherzer AAV, because his contract is fully guaranteed with no team or player options, but the Strasburg contract has a huge increase in the final year, which follows two player option years. Why should the Nats have future salary counted against them for 2017 when those years are far from guaranteed?
So if the Nats planned on being under for 2017 and end up over, how does that impact their plans for 2018 and beyond? If the AAV determination remains in dispute, how does this unknown factor affect the team's ability to determine their 2018 payroll?
The tax definitely appears to have become a cap for a large number of teams this year, which is easy to see why based on significant cash and draft pick penalties. This is likely the reason for a slower than normal developing market for free agents. I suspect that the result will be an increasing disparity in pay, that star players will continue to see the same large contracts they've received in the past, but the mid-range guys will receive smaller offers as teams bargain hunt for free agents in back up roles along with accelerating the promotions of younger guys.
Another factor that could affect the pay for free agents looking at bench roles or a shot at the back of the rotation is the extra four days off this year. The #5 starters in MLB averaged between 15-20 starts last season, shift three or four of those starts up to the aces and the top guys are worth more and the marginal guys are worth less. Same is true for the bench players, they still have value, just a little bit less when there are more rest days built in for the regulars.
Here is a link to the article mentioning the rumor about the Nats protesting the MLB AAV calculation:
http://www.talknats.com/?s=tax+threshold