As the rotation turns - offseason edition 2017-18

[JCA-CrystalCity]

OK, so after the 4 locks, who is #5?  Do we make a major trade to line up Gio's successor to have 3 Aces?  Do we make a smaller trade or signing to bring in mid-rotation guy?  Do we find a bunch of Jacob Turners / Vance Worleys and take the survivor?  Or are we content to give Cole and Fedde their shots as the primary in-house arms, just sign some minor league free agent left overs at the end of the spring, and muddle through until either Ross is healthy or we decide we need something better?

This seems thread-worthy, so here it is.

Here's a couple of recent articles from Jorge Castillo on Fedde and Cole.

Fedde: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2017/11/29/what-role-will-top-pitching-prospect-erick-fedde-play-in-the-nationals-2018-plans/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.bf8750fe497c

They called him up for three separate spot starts in the second half. In the third start, his velocity fell into the high 80s as he threw 112 pitches over six innings, a dugout decision that rankled front office decision-makers who had known of some soreness beforehand and warned coaches to be wary.
. . .
As Fedde rose through the Nationals’ system, he became known for 1) a Max Scherzer-esque bulldog demeanor and relentless competitiveness, 2) a sinking fastball with enough on it to play in the majors and 3) a slider that was good enough to get swings and misses. During those three big league starts, Fedde’s fastball sat mostly in the low 90s — just fine, but not quite as advertised. By the third start, he was throwing far more curveballs than sliders, something former pitching coach Mike Maddux suggested he incorporate into his regular arsenal.

In other words, Fedde seemed like a different pitcher when the Nationals last saw him than he did in spring training, when his fastball-slider combination was aided by an in-progress change-up. His fastball lacked the same life. His slider lacked the same bite. Multiple scouts wondered if the irregular workload fostered by Fedde’s brief move to the bullpen (and back again) disrupted his rhythm. After his last start, Fedde pointed out that he had not worked on regular rest in some time and spent much of the last month of his season shuttling between the majors and the minors. In other words, exactly which Fedde would appear if given regular rotation duties next season remains to be seen, but the Nationals will have to decide whether to bet on him.

Cole: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2017/12/06/where-does-a-j-cole-fit-in-the-nationals-plans/?utm_term=.1f99f6b6a6d1

While the Nationals were running away with the National League East with little at stake, Cole posted a 3.00 ERA in his final eight appearances (five starts) across 36 innings down the stretch. He finished the season with a 3.81 ERA in 52 innings in the majors — after pitching to a ghastly 5.88 ERA in 18 starts with Class AAA Syracuse.

Cole’s stuff was better (his fastball velocity jumped from 91.8 mph in 2016 to 93.2 mph), but he averaged just 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings and his 5.20 FIP suggests he benefited from plenty of luck. Regardless, the strong conclusion placed him in contention for the No. 5 spot next season alongside fellow internal candidate and top pitching prospect Erick Fedde. One other factor boosting Cole’s case: He is out of options, which means the Nationals would have to expose him to waivers if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.

I'm sort of thinking, all things being equal, Cole is given first shot at the 5th slot, Fedde is held in AAA and kept on regular work until needed (injury or failure by Cole), and that several non-roster guys are signed to minor league contracts with spring training invites. 5th starter is as good a place as any to save a few $$$ for a team that is close to the luxury tax thresholds.

[HalfSmokes]

No matter what they do, Cole and Fedde, and other guys as well, will get shots- injuries happen. Personally, I'd like to see them try to trade for a number 2/3.

[DPMOmaha]

Rosenthal said Rizzo is looking at going bigger than just a 4 or 5 to fill out the rotation. It's behind a paywall, so I won't copy and past it, but it was basically this: he speculated they might go after someone like a Gerrit Cole and that anyone other than Robles and Soto could be available. 

[Natsinpwc]

Rosenthal said Rizzo is looking at going bigger than just a 4 or 5 to fill out the rotation. It's behind a paywall, so I won't copy and past it, but it was basically this: he speculated they might go after someone like a Gerrit Cole and that anyone other than Robles and Soto could be available.

Then they won't get someone like Cole.

[UMDNats]

Rosenthal said Rizzo is looking at going bigger than just a 4 or 5 to fill out the rotation. It's behind a paywall, so I won't copy and past it, but it was basically this: he speculated they might go after someone like a Gerrit Cole and that anyone other than Robles and Soto could be available. 

seems like the last sentence contradicts itself.


rizzo has shown to be creative to get what he wants..i could see us going after a young-ish starter to take over the Ross role because we desperately need a young starter.

[bluestreak]

Rosenthal's article mentions Arrieta as a possibility. Let me reiterate how colossally dumb this would be. He is 32 and showed signs of decline last year. And someone will likely give him a 9 figure contract. I hope it's not the Nats.

[imref]

There’s a petty good argument to make that we need a solid #3 to compete in the playoffs.  Roark and Gio aren’t a 3.

[Slateman]

Rosenthal said Rizzo is looking at going bigger than just a 4 or 5 to fill out the rotation. It's behind a paywall, so I won't copy and past it, but it was basically this: he speculated they might go after someone like a Gerrit Cole and that anyone other than Robles and Soto could be available. 

The only reason to make a trade would be for a 2/3 type pitcher and set up for the future.

I would like to see Cole be the number 5. He flashed some last season. Lets see if he can develop. If not, send him down and make him a reliever

[aspenbubba]

We need a # 3 long term as Gio will be gone after next year and Ross and Roark are not it. We need Rizzo to work his magic once again. Cole , IIRC , cannot get past the 5th inning and belongs in the BP. Fedde needs to build up arm strength and fix whatever is wrong with his arm if anything.

As Zuckerman postulated today we will need to sign multiple guys to minor league deals to possibly get one or two for the BP.

[Slateman]

We need a # 3 long term as Gio will be gone after next year and Ross and Roark are not it. We need Rizzo to work his magic once again. Cole , IIRC , cannot get past the 5th inning and belongs in the BP. Fedde needs to build up arm strength and fix whatever is wrong with his arm if anything.

As Zuckerman postulated today we will need to sign multiple guys to minor league deals to possibly get one or two for the BP.

Isn't that supposed to be Fedde?

[Slateman]

Rosenthal's article mentions Arrieta as a possibility. Let me reiterate how colossally dumb this would be. He is 32 and showed signs of decline last year. And someone will likely give him a 9 figure contract. I hope it's not the Nats.

Wasn't Arrieta hurt the first half of last season? He had a good second half and his groundball BABIP rates are still very low

[JCA-CrystalCity]

On the extremely minor end, it would not surprise me if you saw AJ Cole go for a lefty starter who is marginal and out of options. 

[imref]

I saw a tweet that about half a dozen teams are looking at Tom Koehler.  He was good in Toronto last year after being awful in Miami.  Maybe a decent possibility if Rizzo just wants a #5.

[Slateman]

I saw a tweet that about half a dozen teams are looking at Tom Koehler.  He was good in Toronto last year after being awful in Miami.  Maybe a decent possibility if Rizzo just wants a #5.

Toronto used him primarily as a reliever

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I think Cole/Fedde/minor league free agents/eventually Ross are fine for the #5 spo and depth.  What I worry about is who can pitch games 3 and 4 in a postseason series.  I'm not trusting Gio anymore in that spot.  Roark also doesn't totally inspire confidence in that spot.  I think we need a strong #3, more for the postseason than to get through the regular season.

[varoadking]

I think Cole/Fedde/minor league free agents/eventually Ross are fine for the #5 spo and depth.  What I worry about is who can pitch games 3 and 4 in a postseason series.  I'm not trusting Gio anymore in that spot.  Roark also doesn't totally inspire confidence in that spot.  I think we need a strong #3, more for the postseason than to get through the regular season.

Our #1 doesn't inspire much playoff confidence either...

[aBaltoNat]

I think Cole/Fedde/minor league free agents/eventually Ross are fine for the #5 spo and depth.  What I worry about is who can pitch games 3 and 4 in a postseason series.  I'm not trusting Gio anymore in that spot.  Roark also doesn't totally inspire confidence in that spot.  I think we need a strong #3, more for the postseason than to get through the regular season.

If that's the case then we should do nothing big until the trade deadline.

[welch]

Nats need a solid number 3, a 1/2 ace. Gio is a current-day Ed Figueroa: wins enough in the regular season and then falls flat. Ross might become good, in 2019, but it's a guess. Roark slumped, but he's probably at least a 4/5.

Who?

[Slateman]

Nats need a solid number 3, a 1/2 ace. Gio is a current-day Ed Figueroa: wins enough in the regular season and then falls flat. Ross might become good, in 2019, but it's a guess. Roark slumped, but he's probably at least a 4/5.

Who?

Why do the Nats "need" a solid 1/2/3? Neither World Series team had a good number 3 pitcher. You could make the argument that Keuchel was pretty meh and the Dodgers didn't anything resembling a good number 2.

The Cubs had relatively decent starting pitching, but he Yankees certainly didn't.

Unless there is an injury, I don't see why they would need to make a move for a top of the rotation starter when they're in a division that, frankly, they should win fairly easily. Unless that deal is for someone who is going to be here long term, I'm not sure why you give up prospects now, when you can hold on to them and get what you need at the deadline (like a closer or a replacement for an injury).

[Natsinpwc]

Why do the Nats "need" a solid 1/2/3? Neither World Series team had a good number 3 pitcher. You could make the argument that Keuchel was pretty meh and the Dodgers didn't anything resembling a good number 2.

The Cubs had relatively decent starting pitching, but he Yankees certainly didn't.

Unless there is an injury, I don't see why they would need to make a move for a top of the rotation starter when they're in a division that, frankly, they should win fairly easily. Unless that deal is for someone who is going to be here long term, I'm not sure why you give up prospects now, when you can hold on to them and get what you need at the deadline (like a closer or a replacement for an injury).

Because the teams we are likely to face postseason have guys who can actually hit under pressure. Do you want to trot Gio out there again in a key situation?

[Slateman]

Because the teams we are likely to face postseason have guys who can actually hit under pressure. Do you want to trot Gio out there again in a key situation?

Is he better or worse than what LA trotted out there?

[Natsinpwc]

Is he better or worse than what LA trotted out there?

Worse.

[bluestreak]

Gio certainly pitched better than Darvish in the playoffs..

[Natsinpwc]

Gio certainly pitched better than Darvish in the playoffs..

No. His ERA was higher.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Gio certainly pitched better than Darvish in the playoffs..

He didn't.  That's the pathetic part.