Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)

[Monarch]

Harper's dream now seems to be batting in the Cubs line up before or after Bryant. I always thought the Cubs were his ideal destination for that reason and the fact Chicago is a real baseball town. I bet he will even end up taking less money that the Nats offer just to play there.

Book it and see me this time next year

I believe this is the most likely scenario of anything else I've seen. The only thing in our favor is that he knows the great players of the past mostly played for 1 franchise their whole career. That is probably the only thing the Nats have going for them. He also knows that he'll never be more popular than players on the redskins.

[rbw5t]

Here are the odds of where he'll end up.  Note, these are just odds, so no matter where he goes, I can't have been wrong!

Nats: 30%
Dodgers: 20%
Cubs: 15%
Field: 35%

To summarize, the team he is most likely to end up with is the Nats.  The Dodgers are the team he is most likely to go to if he leaves.  He is more likely to leave than to stay.  There is no team that he is more likely to go to than to not go to.

The good news is that here is the place he is most likely to end up.  The bad news is that he likely to end up somewhere other than here.  (Assuming you think he's a fair value at whatever he costs -- if you don't, then the converses are true -- the good news is someone else will likely be paying his $400M, and the bad news is that we are the team most likely to be paying his $400M.)

[Ray D]

Here are the odds of where he'll end up.  Note, these are just odds, so no matter where he goes, I can't have been wrong!

Nats: 30%
Dodgers: 20%
Cubs: 15%
Field: 35%

To summarize, the team he is most likely to end up with is the Nats.  The Dodgers are the team he is most likely to go to if he leaves.  He is more likely to leave than to stay.  There is no team that he is more likely to go to than to not go to.

The good news is that here is the place he is most likely to end up.  The bad news is that he likely to end up somewhere other than here.  (Assuming you think he's a fair value at whatever he costs -- if you don't, then the converses are true -- the good news is someone else will likely be paying his $400M, and the bad news is that we are the team most likely to be paying his $400M.)

Where are these odds coming from?

[rbw5t]

Where are these odds coming from?

Like with everything, I made them up!

[Baseball is Life]

Harper's dream now seems to be batting in the Cubs line up before or after Bryant. I always thought the Cubs were his ideal destination for that reason and the fact Chicago is a real baseball town. I bet he will even end up taking less money that the Nats offer just to play there.

Book it and see me this time next year

[Mr Clean]

Baseball is Life--- That's Baltimore troll Poopy McPoop I bet. Obsessed with the Nats and Harper. His franchise is imploding day by day.

[bluestreak]

Harper's dream now seems to be batting in the Cubs line up before or after Bryant. I always thought the Cubs were his ideal destination for that reason and the fact Chicago is a real baseball town. I bet he will even end up taking less money that the Nats offer just to play there.

Book it and see me this time next year

Harper may we’ll go go to the Cubs, but if he does it won’t be because Chicago is a “real baseball town.”  He will go where he makes the most money or perceives he has the best chance to win.

[Ray D]

And anyway, the only thing that makes Chicago a real baseball town is the White Sox.

[bluestreak]

And anyway, the only thing that makes Chicago a real baseball town is the White Sox.

I was going to write something along these lines. If Harper wants long term winning, the White Sox are maybe a better bet than the Cubs.

[Mathguy]

Huh ?  Based on what ?

And anyway, the only thing that makes Chicago a real baseball town is the White Sox.

[Ray D]

Huh ?  Based on what ?

Well, I think back on all the Cubs fans I've known (or observed), vs. White Sox fans.  The White Sox fans are smarter and know more about baseball.  (And they're better looking.)

[LoveAngelos]

I have not checked attendance figures but my impression is that nobody goes to White Sox games because it's too crowded.

[hotshot]

At least at Wrigley, you don't have to dodge gunfire to get to and from the locker room.

[Count Walewski]

As a native of Chicago there's much I can say about how Cubs fans are often at Wrigley for the "scene" and White Sox fans are at the game to watch a game, but I'll decline the temptation. I'll simply say that every few years we become 100% convinced that Bryce absolutely wants to play for the Yankees because he grew up idolizing Mickey Mantle, or that he absolutely wants to play for the Dodgers because his family is up west, or that he absolutely wants to play for the Cubs because his best friend in the whole world is on that team.

Sounds like even if he has strong desires about where he wants to go, these are fickle and could still change in the next year. Or, more likely, there's a bunch of places he'd consider playing for various reasons, and he'd be OK with going to any of them if the price is right. Washington might even be one of those places.

[Slateman]

As a native of Chicago there's much I can say about how Cubs fans are often at Wrigley for the "scene" and White Sox fans are at the game to watch a game, but I'll decline the temptation.

Because Cubs fans are bandwagon fans. It's okay. Most of us know. Some are in denial. Ironically, Cubs fans and Nationals fans are eerily similar.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sounds like even if he has strong desires about where he wants to go, these are fickle and could still change in the next year. Or, more likely, there's a bunch of places he'd consider playing for various reasons, and he'd be OK with going to any of them if the price is right. Washington might even be one of those places.

I think this is right.  The fact that some of the wealthiest-budgeted teams also have a personal factor (NYY, LAD, CHC) makes them potential destinations, but I don't discount completely ego-factors in terms of place in franchise history (becoming bigger than Dawson or Vladi!) or the fact that he grew up professionally around guys like Stras, Rendon, Turner, etc... might keep the Nats in the picture. 

My dark horse is Philly.  Capacity to spend and a lefty-friendly ballpark.  But it would be pure mercenary at that point.

[varoadking]

Because Cubs fans are bandwagon fans. It's okay. Most of us know. Some are in denial. Ironically, Cubs fans and Nationals fans are eerily similar.

When is the last time you attended an MLB game in Chicago?

Thought so...

[Elvir Ovcina]

When is the last time you attended an MLB game in Chicago?

Thought so...

He may be talking out of an absence of personal experience, but he's not wrong.  And that's coming from someone who's been to both parks repeatedly, including recently.  There are some real, die-hard, actual Cubs fans, and then there's a massive horde of "Cubs fans" who were wearing Red Sox sh!t until late 2016.

[varoadking]

He may be talking out of an absence of personal experience, but he's not wrong.  And that's coming from someone who's been to both parks repeatedly, including recently.  There are some real, die-hard, actual Cubs fans, and then there's a massive horde of "Cubs fans" who were wearing Red Sox sh!t until late 2016.

Dude...I lived it.

Most of the real Cubs fans aren't at the game...they hang out at the same neighborhood tavern their grandfather did, watching the game on a 19" TV on a shelf in the corner of the bar...they live and die by them.  Sure, there are posers at the game...those folks are not indicative of real Cubs fans.

Sox fan are students of the game, but if the team left town, they'd get over it.

Without having lived it, someone telling me about the underbelly of Chicago sports is about as freaking stoopid as me telling Slate about conditions on the ground in the sandbox.

[spidernat]

Dude...I lived it.

Most of the real Cubs fans aren't at the game...they hang out at the same neighborhood tavern their grandfather did, watching the game on a 19" TV on a shelf in the corner of the bar...they live and die by them.  Sure, there are posers at the game...those folks are not indicative of real Cubs fans.

This proves how stupid they are.



Another round in the win column for Slate.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Dude...I lived it.

Most of the real Cubs fans aren't at the game...they hang out at the same neighborhood tavern their grandfather did, watching the game on a 19" TV on a shelf in the corner of the bar...they live and die by them.  Sure, there are posers at the game...those folks are not indicative of real Cubs fans.

Sox fan are students of the game, but if the team left town, they'd get over it.

Without having lived it, someone telling me about the underbelly of Chicago sports is about as freaking stoopid as me telling Slate about conditions on the ground in the sandbox.

It sounds like you're rather violently agreeing with him (and me), then.  I don't disagree with anything you say above, but the country isn't awash in bandwagon White Sox "fans" who couldn't tell you the name of a single player who played for them more than 5 years ago. 

[varoadking]

It sounds like you're rather violently agreeing with him (and me), then.  I don't disagree with anything you say above, but the country isn't awash in bandwagon White Sox "fans" who couldn't tell you the name of a single player who played for them more than 5 years ago.

Ah, but they can tell you who was on the '59 Go-Go Sox...

There is one truism that I know the Count will agree with me on...you root for the Sox, or you root for the Cubs.  NEVER both...

[varoadking]

Another round in the win column for Slate.

Can't find the "finger" emoji on my phone.   

[tomterp]

This proves how stupid they are.



Another round in the win column for Slate.

I didn't realize Spider was an elitist.

[spidernat]

I didn't realize Spider was an elitist.

come on tomterp, a 19" television in this day and age, that is just too dated!!!!!!!!!