Author Topic: Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)  (Read 17975 times)

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Offline imref

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This. There's going to be fan mutiny if they trade him or they let him walk. They know this. They'll pay him.

Too early to say how fans would react if he walks. If he has a down year, and Robles is up and contributing, there might not be a big backlash.  If he’s putting up MVP numbers and we don’t want to pay him, then you’ll see a backlash.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Too early to say how fans would react if he walks. If he has a down year, and Robles is up and contributing, there might not be a big backlash.  If he’s putting up MVP numbers and we don’t want to pay him, then you’ll see a backlash.

If he gets the $400 million people are talking about, i think casual fans turn on him for begin a greedy athlete rather than on ownership

Offline imref

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If he gets the $400 million people are talking about, i think casual fans turn on him for begin a greedy athlete rather than on ownership

 Not if he puts up MVP numbers again.  I still think we extend him before opening day.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Not if he puts up MVP numbers again.  I still think we extend him before opening day.

Fans have been conditioned for years to view athletes as greedy, a record setting contract intensity reinforces that

Offline Slateman

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How did Rangers fans revolt when they traded Rodriguez?

Cards fans when Pujols left?

Offline Ray D

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Cards fans when Pujols left?

I know a Cardinal fan; he was heartbroken when Pujols, left.  Today, he says not extending him was the smartest thing the Cardinals ever did.
So the fans immediate knee-jerk reaction really doesn't matter.  How we feel about it five years down the road is more important.  In Pujols case it took one year for fans to forget him. Do you know, he hit over .300 every years with the Cardinals. Hasn't hit .300 yet with the Angels.

Offline imref

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I know a Cardinal fan; he was heartbroken when Pujols, left.  Today, he says not extending him was the smartest thing the Cardinals ever did.
So the fans immediate knee-jerk reaction really doesn't matter.  How we feel about it five years down the road is more important.  In Pujols case it took one year for fans to forget him. Do you know, he hit over .300 every years with the Cardinals. Hasn't hit .300 yet with the Angels.

Pujols was 31 when he left STL IIRC. a bit different situation.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Bad big contracts kill almost all teams.  As good as Cashman has played the last couple of years, I don't think even the Yankees took a step back when their contracts turned bad.  Granted, they bought the '09 World Series, but the collection of Damon, Teixeira, the Sabathia and Rodriguez extensions, and a few others eventually blocked better players and moves.  The only teams I think that have survived bad contracts pretty well are the Dodgers and the Red Sox.  Other than that, you look at the Pujols contract, the Tigers and Rangers, and even the big money, big spending teams hit walls when contracts turn bad.  So, there's a ton of risk in committing to Harper for 10 or more years at $35+MM a year with opt outs.  There's a ton of downside risk.  Baseball people like Rizzo can evaluate the risk / reward better than I can, but it is a deal that will determine the course of the franchise either way.  Sign him, and your fate rides on him playing well enough that he will be turning away a ton of money if he doesn't opt out.

Offline Slateman

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Bad big contracts kill almost all teams. 
This. Convince me that paying Harper 40 million a year doesn't cripple the team. We've already seen that one player can't take you to the playoffs. You need a plethora of good players over one great one.

Offline HalfSmokes

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This. Convince me that paying Harper 40 million a year doesn't cripple the team. We've already seen that one player can't take you to the playoffs. You need a plethora of good players over one great one.

we already have seasons with $25 million committed to players who will no longer be under contract- worrying about the future isn't something this team does well

Offline Slateman

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we already have seasons with $25 million committed to players who will no longer be under contract- worrying about the future isn't something this team does well
I would say that worrying about the future is what this team has done the best. They scout well. They draft well.

Offline HalfSmokes

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They draft well.

particularly with top 10 picks

Offline Slateman

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particularly with top 10 picks
Plenty of teams can't even accomplish that

Offline Smithian

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The other thing about trading Harper. All of the non-WNFF fans would be apoplectic. You would have a complete fan mutiny. And justifiably so.
I think this is an important point.

If the Nats try to resign Bryce and he leaves, it sucks. If you trade Bryce and even get two or three starters backs, but he goes off and has a Hall of Fame career then the casual fan turns off the Nats.

I am 100% in the camp of if Harper's contract gets ridiculous, I would rather keep Rendon and go sign a couple $100 million quality players than have only Harper. But I see no possible situation where trading Harper is worth the risk of reducing your chances in 2018 and possibly lighting your fanbase on fire. If he shows up and plays like 2015 then he is the best player in baseball and you can't replicate that production with a lineup already set with starters.

The Nats need to play this season with the players we have. Make a run at the World Series. And then deal with Harper next offseason. If he leaves, he leaves. That's free agency. We made our run and will reload without him.

Offline Slateman

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I think this is an important point.

If the Nats try to resign Bryce and he leaves, it sucks. If you trade Bryce and even get two or three starters backs, but he goes off and has a Hall of Fame career then the casual fan turns off the Nats.

Casual fans will come back when the team wins 95+ games.

Offline bluestreak

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How did Rangers fans revolt when they traded Rodriguez?

Cards fans when Pujols left?

I don’t think there will be a fan revolt if Bryce walks after next year. But if he gets traded this offseason, when the fans have been told this is last year of the window. I don’t think they will be happy.

Offline Slateman

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I don’t think there will be a fan revolt if Bryce walks after next year. But if he gets traded this offseason, when the fans have been told this is last year of the window. I don’t think they will be happy.
Are they happy now? I'm not. I don't think Bryce is this missing link to winning a postseason series.

I think if someone legitimately offers you a top 10 prospect for Bryce Harper, you should take it and run all the way to the playoffs.

Offline nfotiu

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Are they happy now? I'm not. I don't think Bryce is this missing link to winning a postseason series.

I think if someone legitimately offers you a top 10 prospect for Bryce Harper, you should take it and run all the way to the playoffs.
I'd rather roll the dice on one more shot of having a 100% healthy Harper, Strasburg and Scherzer going into the playoffs with a good supporting cast.  We haven't got to see that.  I don't know that we've even gone into the playoffs with 2 of those guys anywhere near 100%, but I'd happily give up a prospect for one more chance to see what they can do.

Offline bluestreak

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Are they happy now? I'm not. I don't think Bryce is this missing link to winning a postseason series.

I think if someone legitimately offers you a top 10 prospect for Bryce Harper, you should take it and run all the way to the playoffs.

With all due respect, you’re not the typical Nats fan. Half the jerseys in the park have Harper on the back. People would be pissed if he was just traded away for someone they had never heard of.

Offline Expos

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This. Convince me that paying Harper 40 million a year doesn't cripple the team. We've already seen that one player can't take you to the playoffs. You need a plethora of good players over one great one.

Exactly. Which is why I suggest trading him before we lose him for nothing.

I'd rather have the money from NOT paying Harper and a signed Rendon than a signed Harper.

We can win without him anyways.

Offline Expos

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With all due respect, you’re not the typical Nats fan. Half the jerseys in the park have Harper on the back. People would be pissed if he was just traded away for someone they had never heard of.

Well too bad. I cheer for the Nationals. Not Bryce Harper.

We will sell seats as long as we are winning. Plain and simple.

Offline bluestreak

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Exactly. Which is why I suggest trading him before we lose him for nothing.

I'd rather have the money from NOT paying Harper and a signed Rendon than a signed Harper.

We can win without him anyways.

But it’s not nothing. It’s an extra year of Harper. And draft picks when you make him a QO. Which is why rental bats don’t bring a whole lot back in trade. Trading him this year certainly means what you get will be less than what you gave away.

Offline Expos

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I'd rather roll the dice on one more shot of having a 100% healthy Harper, Strasburg and Scherzer going into the playoffs with a good supporting cast.  We haven't got to see that.  I don't know that we've even gone into the playoffs with 2 of those guys anywhere near 100%, but I'd happily give up a prospect for one more chance to see what they can do.

We have been in the playoffs 3 times with Harper and have underwhelmed each time. Why would this season be any different?

Offline bluestreak

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Well too bad. I cheer for the Nationals. Not Bryce Harper.

We will sell seats as long as we are winning. Plain and simple.

I wasn’t even referring to you, I was referring to Slate, and if you don’t think that there would be a significant PR hit to trading Bryce Harper, you’re kidding yourself.
But in general, no one that is a regular here is the typical Nats fan. It’s not bad.

And to quote Jerry Seinfeld, I cheer for players and not clothes. 😉

Offline Expos

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But it’s not nothing. It’s an extra year of Harper. And draft picks when you make him a QO. Which is why rental bats don’t bring a whole lot back in trade. Trading him this year certainly means what you get will be less than what you gave away.

What has Harper done to help us win?

Trade him. Get a prospect. Take the money that Harper would get and sign JD. Sign a Pitcher. Sign Rendon.

That is a much better long term plan than one year of Harper and losing out in the 1st round again.