Author Topic: Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)  (Read 9683 times)

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Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 2952
There is no way I’d give up that much talent for a year of anybody. And no GM in baseball would either. Because no player can guarantee anything for one season. Makes more sense in the NBA.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15313
  • Nats RP have no nerve
Mike Trout and  his .083/.267/.333 line are gonna punch us to the World Series?

3-game sample size, ya big dummy

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 490
There is. The Nationals if they trade away Bryce Harper.

Garbage.

This team is still a contender and likely division champs without Harper.

This season we will have Eaton and his 5 WAR. We will have a healthy Turner at the top of the lineup. We will have Taylor who looks to be a star in CF for the whole season. We hopefully won't be trotting out AJ Cole or Edwin Jackson as the 4th / 5th starters. We will have a closer who won't blow 20 games.

Plus, it isn't just about this season. Trading Harper means we can turn our attention to signing Rendon Long term who arguably has a bigger impact on this team than Harper. If we sign Harper say goodbye to Rendon. We can also sign a top starting pitcher like Lance Lynn because we know we won't have an albatross contract next year from Harper.

185 mil to JD over 7 years
185 mil to Rendon over 7 years
45 mil to Lynn over 3 years
1 top prospect for Harper

Is world's better than

400+ mil to Harper.

I'd still take one top prospect for Harper right now than lose him for nothing because we are one of the few teams that can do alot of damage without him. But put him on a team on the cusp like Boston for 163 and he may take them over the top.

Or say a team like the Blue Jays who have money to spend call and offer us Pillar or Osuna. He would make the Jays contenders in that division, sell seats and take them over the top.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
3-game sample size, ya big dummy
Didn't light it up the last month of the season when they were in the playoff hunt. Again, not giving up a ton for one year of him. I don't need the 3-5 WAR increase in the regular season, and Taylor has lit it up (.294/.400/.647) in the playoffs.

So convince me why 1 year of trout is better than 5 years of Robles

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15313
  • Nats RP have no nerve
Didn't light it up the last month of the season when they were in the playoff hunt. Again, not giving up a ton for one year of him. I don't need the 3-5 WAR increase in the regular season, and Taylor has lit it up (.294/.400/.647) in the playoffs.

So convince me why 1 year of trout is better than 5 years of Robles

I don't necessarily believe that, I just think you're a complete freaking tool for using a 3-game, 1-round sample to "demonstrate" how bad someone is in the playoffs.

Offline aBaltoNat

  • Posts: 852
Garbage.

This team is still a contender and likely division champs without Harper.

This season we will have Eaton and his 5 WAR. We will have a healthy Turner at the top of the lineup. We will have Taylor who looks to be a star in CF for the whole season. We hopefully won't be trotting out AJ Cole or Edwin Jackson as the 4th / 5th starters. We will have a closer who won't blow 20 games.

Plus, it isn't just about this season. Trading Harper means we can turn our attention to signing Rendon Long term who arguably has a bigger impact on this team than Harper. If we sign Harper say goodbye to Rendon. We can also sign a top starting pitcher like Lance Lynn because we know we won't have an albatross contract next year from Harper.

185 mil to JD over 7 years
185 mil to Rendon over 7 years
45 mil to Lynn over 3 years
1 top prospect for Harper

Is world's better than

400+ mil to Harper.

I'd still take one top prospect for Harper right now than lose him for nothing because we are one of the few teams that can do alot of damage without him. But put him on a team on the cusp like Boston for 163 and he may take them over the top.

Or say a team like the Blue Jays who have money to spend call and offer us Pillar or Osuna. He would make the Jays contenders in that division, sell seats and take them over the top.

I love having Harper on the team, but agree with all of these points. I wouldn't want JD on a 7 yr contract though.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
Top 20 prospects in baseball:
1—-Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
2—-Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
3—-Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
4—-Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
5—-Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
6—-Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
7—-Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago White Sox
8—-Gleyber Torres, INF, New York Yankees
9—-Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
10—Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
11—Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
12—Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros
13—Fernando Tatis Jr, SS, San Diego Padres
14—Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
15—Ozzie Albies, INF, Atlanta Braves
16—Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta Braves
17—Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
18—Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
19—Lewis Brinson, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
20—Rhys Hoskins, OF-1B, Philadelphia Phillies

Which team is giving up one of them for Bryce?

Braves, Blue Jays,  White Sox, Reds, Pirates, and Phillies are rebuilding, so they have no reason to trade for him.

Red Sox? Doubt it. Offense wasn't really a problem for them. They also have one of the best RFers in baseball and a top prospect for left.

Mets: A possibility. If their pitching is healthy, that's a really good team with Bryce Harper. Amed Rosario is probably three years away from being MLB steady.

Yankees - They need starting pitching, not offense.

Indians - Scored one less run than we did without Brantley.

Astros - Don't need help on offense and are pretty stacked in the OF

Rockies - I mean, I'd love to see it, but they don't need offense

Brewers - A good trade partner if they're willing to pick up the money. They need offense and Bryce would be a good fit. Lewis Brinson is a good prospect and is probably MLB ready or will be in the 2018 season.


So we have two trade partners. Do you think those teams are going to cough up their top guys for a year of Harper? Do you think those teams are Bryce Harper away from a WS bid?


Offline Expos

  • Posts: 490
Didn't light it up the last month of the season when they were in the playoff hunt. Again, not giving up a ton for one year of him. I don't need the 3-5 WAR increase in the regular season, and Taylor has lit it up (.294/.400/.647) in the playoffs.

So convince me why 1 year of trout is better than 5 years of Robles

You're the GM of a team. You have an outfield of Taylor - Eaton - Robles and the rest of your team is stacked. You're telling me you wouldn't trade Robles for 1 year of Harper if it meant taking you over the top?


Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 9914
You're the GM of a team. You have an outfield of Taylor - Eaton - Robles and the rest of your team is stacked. You're telling me you wouldn't trade Robles for 1 year of Harper if it meant taking you over the top?
If you could guarantee more revenue I would. That's what it's all about.

Online Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1836
Top 20 prospects in baseball:
Amed Rosario is probably three years away from being MLB steady.


That seems a little long of a timeline for a guy who has hit pretty well in both of the top levels of the minors and didn't embarrass himself in a reasonable MLB sample at age 21.  If he takes 3 years from now to become a steady big leaguer, something has gone very wrong.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
You're the GM of a team. You have an outfield of Taylor - Eaton - Robles and the rest of your team is stacked. You're telling me you wouldn't trade Robles for 1 year of Harper if it meant taking you over the top?



What team is that?

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18809
You're the GM of a team. You have an outfield of Taylor - Eaton - Robles and the rest of your team is stacked. You're telling me you wouldn't trade Robles for 1 year of Harper if it meant taking you over the top?

No, baseball isn't basket ball. It's rare (nonexistent?) that you have a team where one player actually will put them over the top and anyone thinking they can spot such a situation in the offseason is an idiot

It's closer than anything else. You still haven't said what team is willing to trade for Harper and what they will give up.

The best example I can come up with is Justin Upton. The Braves traded him to the Padres in the offseason for Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, and Mallex Smith

I imagine just about every team in baseball with some money and designs on contending in 2018 would make significant offers for Harper in this hypothetical, but he's not on the trade market. 

I don’t off the top of my head. But we can extrapolate based on players that are slightly less than Harper. Like a 5 or six win player. Do you think that someone is going to give a lot more for that 3 or 4 extra wins? There is a reason there aren’t many examples. Because teams don’t do it because they will never get equal value in return.

WAR aside, I don't think any team values Eaton and Harper remotely similarly enough to make it a valid basis for comparison.  There really isn't any. 

Not to pile on, but who are you expecting back for Harper? Do you expect to get back a top 10 prospect? Wouldn't one of the big market teams just wait until he is a free agent instead of having to give up prospects AND then try to keep him? Is there a small market team with one hole in RF that would give up a top 10 prospect because they completely know that they won't be able to sign him long term, but think that 2018 is "their year".

I just don't see enough coming back for one year of Harper to make up for his loss, even with signing J.D. Martinez.

I said earlier it doesn't make sense to trade Harper now.  Then somebody said we wouldn't get much for Harper if we did trade him, to which I totally disagree.  I'd only look into trading Harper if we're unable to extend him now or during the season and if we somehow totally fall way out of contention by the deadline.  That's highly unlikely, so Harper is playing here through the end of next season at least.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 2952
I love JD Martinez, but if you expect anything similar to this year’s production over the life of a contract, you’re crazy. He’s 30 and already plays bad defense. He’s a definite downgrade. The problem with trading Harper is that any move will make you worse for next year, which is supposedly a year where the Nats should try to win. If Harper leaves, then go with an outfield of Taylor, Robles, Eaton and Goodwin. This team has too many good outfielders to be dropping that much money on an old one who can’t play defense.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
I imagine just about every team in baseball with some money and designs on contending in 2018 would make significant offers for Harper in this hypothetical, but he's not on the trade market. 

What team?

Offline Ryan9009

  • Posts: 5
Harper, Soto, Fedde for Stanton, Realmuto

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
Harper, Soto, Fedde for Stanton, Realmuto

Why would the Marlins want Harper?

Offline aBaltoNat

  • Posts: 852
Why would the Marlins want Harper?

Salary dump for them.

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3038
Salary dump for them.

Then why would they want Harper instead of an additional prospect or two?

Offline aBaltoNat

  • Posts: 852
Then why would they want Harper instead of an additional prospect or two?

Do I have to explain everything for you? They get Harper for one year to help with jersey sales
...then he's off the books for them and they get rid of Stanton's massive contract.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18809
Do I have to explain everything for you? They get Harper for one year to help with jersey sales
...then he's off the books for them and they get rid of Stanton's massive contract.

Because getting rid of their best asset for nothing is exactly what you’d expect from a deep pockets new ownership group

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41810
Because getting rid of their best asset for nothing is exactly what you’d expect from a deep pockets new ownership group

I'm pretty sure Stanton in Miami is better for jersey sales than Harper.

Online HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 18809
Jersey sales are collective anyway, so I doubt they’d care