Author Topic: Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)  (Read 17974 times)

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A closer is so much different than an outfield bat. Look at what the Tigers got for Martinez, which is a much better indicator, or what the Mets got for Bruce. Martinez went for basically a bag of balls and bats. The value of a shutdown closer is so high right now.

You think Chapman for 2 months commands a better return than Harper for a full season?  Not to mention if you trade for Harper before the season you can make a QO and get a compensation pick, which the Cubs couldn't do with Chapman.  Come on.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 4943
Who cares? Bryce won't be here 3 years from now.

Besides, what has the wonder kid done to help us win? He is just as big of a choker as the rest of our guys.

I can’t tell if this is an emotional hedge because they don’t want to feel rejected if Harper leaves or if people actually believe it, but there are multiple people who think this. And it’s patently absurd.

I can’t tell if this is an emotional hedge because they don’t want to feel rejected if Harper leaves or if people actually believe it, but there are multiple people who think this. And it’s patently absurd.

Fully agree.  It reminds me of Strasburg.  Both come in with a lot of hype.  Both mostly perform at a very high level with some injury setbacks.  Both presumed to be jerks that couldn't wait to get out of DC.  Strasburg signs an extention and raises his family in DC and is a postseason hero in 2017.  I don't understand where all the Bryce hate stems from and the assumption that he's a lock to leave. 

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 4943
You think Chapman for 2 months commands a better return than Harper for a full season?  Not to mention if you trade for Harper before the season you can make a QO and get a compensation pick, which the Cubs couldn't do with Chapman.  Come on.

I absolutely do, and recent history has borne that out. The issue is that everyone needs a reliever, as the playoffs showed. Basically no contender needs an outfield bat. There is no way you get that haul for Harper. Like I said, look a what Martinez (someone you claim is near equivalent to Bryce) went for. It was basically nothing. Position players aren’t as valuable as pitchers on the trade market.

I absolutely do, and recent history has borne that out. The issue is that everyone needs a reliever, as the playoffs showed. Basically no contender needs an outfield bat. There is no way you get that haul for Harper. Like I said, look a what Martinez (someone you claim is near equivalent to Bryce) went for. It was basically nothing. Position players aren’t as valuable as pitchers on the trade market.

1)  I never claimed Martinez is equal to Harper and teams don't think so either.  Heck, think of the extra ticket sales alone owners enjoy from Harper versus a JD Martinez.
2) That was at the deadline.  2 month rental versus a full season.
3) You can't make a QO to a guy you acquire at the deadline.  A compensation pick at the end of the 1st round is huge.

You're right with just the pitchers command more than position players.  But you have to look further than that to the above 3 points.

Offline nfotiu

  • Posts: 2004
1)  I never claimed Martinez is equal to Harper and teams don't think so either.  Heck, think of the extra ticket sales alone owners enjoy from Harper versus a JD Martinez.
2) That was at the deadline.  2 month rental versus a full season.
3) You can't make a QO to a guy you acquire at the deadline.  A compensation pick at the end of the 1st round is huge.

You're right with just the pitchers command more than position players.  But you have to look further than that to the above 3 points.

Any team he is traded to would likely get a comp pick after the 4th or second round, so that's probably a non-factor.   I really don't think a team is going to give up that much for one year of Harper.  It's hard to see the point of that for most teams, and there's a better chance someone would overpay at the deadline if they are in need of offense or replacing an injury.

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 19312
1)  I never claimed Martinez is equal to Harper and teams don't think so either.  Heck, think of the extra ticket sales alone owners enjoy from Harper versus a JD Martinez.
2) That was at the deadline.  2 month rental versus a full season.
3) You can't make a QO to a guy you acquire at the deadline.  A compensation pick at the end of the 1st round is huge.

You're right with just the pitchers command more than position players.  But you have to look further than that to the above 3 points.

Teams acquiring at the deadline are more desperate than the offseason and they do stupid things

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 43359
The Yankees got Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, Rashad Crawford and Adam Warren from the Cubs for a 2 month rental of Chapman.  You seriously are asking this? 
You're not getting that.

Martinez brought back  Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. None of them are even remotely high prospects.
You think Chapman for 2 months commands a better return than Harper for a full season?  Not to mention if you trade for Harper before the season you can make a QO and get a compensation pick, which the Cubs couldn't do with Chapman.  Come on.

Yes. Again, what team is one bat away from being a WS favorite and is willing to give up what it takes to get him? The Cubs were a closer away from being a WS champion and they made the move.

Who are you trading Harper for and what are you getting in return? Name names. Don't tell me "oh Chapman got this" That was at the deadline and back end relievers were artificially inflated at the time. Wade Davis cost less. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle went for a lot less. The 2016 MLB trade deadline was an anomaly.

So like I said, start naming names. Would you give up Robles, Fedde, and Goodwin for one season of Mike Trout or JD Martinez?

Any team he is traded to would likely get a comp pick after the 4th or second round, so that's probably a non-factor.   I really don't think a team is going to give up that much for one year of Harper.  It's hard to see the point of that for most teams, and there's a better chance someone would overpay at the deadline if they are in need of offense or replacing an injury.

I think it's very obvious that a team would trade more for a full season of Harper versus 2 months of Chapman at the deadline.  I'm surprised to have to argue this.

You're not getting that.

Martinez brought back  Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. None of them are even remotely high prospects.
Yes. Again, what team is one bat away from being a WS favorite and is willing to give up what it takes to get him? The Cubs were a closer away from being a WS champion and they made the move.

Who are you trading Harper for and what are you getting in return? Name names. Don't tell me "oh Chapman got this" That was at the deadline and back end relievers were artificially inflated at the time. Wade Davis cost less. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle went for a lot less. The 2016 MLB trade deadline was an anomaly.

So like I said, start naming names. Would you give up Robles, Fedde, and Goodwin for one season of Mike Trout or JD Martinez?

Martinez isn't Harper and that was a 2 month rental.  It's not an apples to apples comparison AT ALL.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 4943
I think it's very obvious that a team would trade more for a full season of Harper versus 2 months of Chapman at the deadline.  I'm surprised to have to argue this.

Except it’s not obvious. And five years of trades back that up. The Cubs got more for Chapman than the White Sox got for 5 YEARS of Adam Eaton, who is a 6 win player. That was an anomalous trade. There isn’t the demand for Bryce from a contender and position players in their walk year have historically not gotten that much in return. 

We gave up three prospects for 25-30 wins. And many think that was an overpay. How many wins is one year of Bryce worth? 8? 10 at the most? So figure you get a third of what you gave up for Eaton. And that doesn’t take into account that Bryce is due for $21 million next year Eaton isn’t nearly that expensive. So the price goes down even more. These other GMs aren’t idiots.

Except it’s not obvious. And five years of trades back that up. The Cubs got more for Chapman than the White Sox got for 5 YEARS of Adam Eaton, who is a 6 win player. That was an anomalous trade. There isn’t the demand for Bryce from a contender and position players in their walk year have historically not gotten that much in return. 

We gave up three prospects for 25-30 wins. And many think that was an overpay. How many wins is one year of Bryce worth? 8? 10 at the most? So figure you get a third of what you gave up for Eaton. And that doesn’t take into account that Bryce is due for $21 million next year Eaton isn’t nearly that expensive. So the price goes down even more. These other GMs aren’t idiots.

Do you have any trade examples of a MVP-level player in their prime being traded in the offseason 1 year prior to them hitting free agency? 

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11518
Except it’s not obvious. And five years of trades back that up. The Cubs got more for Chapman than the White Sox got for 5 YEARS of Adam Eaton, who is a 6 win player. That was an anomalous trade. There isn’t the demand for Bryce from a contender and position players in their walk year have historically not gotten that much in return. 

We gave up three prospects for 25-30 wins. And many think that was an overpay. How many wins is one year of Bryce worth? 8? 10 at the most? So figure you get a third of what you gave up for Eaton. And that doesn’t take into account that Bryce is due for $21 million next year Eaton isn’t nearly that expensive. So the price goes down even more. These other GMs aren’t idiots.

Also the price goes up at the trade deadline usually as some teams decide to go all in. Such as the Cubs with Chapman. It's not very likely that the Nats would be so far out of it to want to trade Harper.  They likely would just ride it out and take their best shot. Same with Murphy. Before the season they likely won't get enough to want to make a deal.

Offline Mattionals

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Martinez isn't Harper and that was a 2 month rental.  It's not an apples to apples comparison AT ALL.

Not to pile on, but who are you expecting back for Harper? Do you expect to get back a top 10 prospect? Wouldn't one of the big market teams just wait until he is a free agent instead of having to give up prospects AND then try to keep him? Is there a small market team with one hole in RF that would give up a top 10 prospect because they completely know that they won't be able to sign him long term, but think that 2018 is "their year".

I just don't see enough coming back for one year of Harper to make up for his loss, even with signing J.D. Martinez.

Offline bluestreak

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Not to pile on, but who are you expecting back for Harper? Do you expect to get back a top 10 prospect? Wouldn't one of the big market teams just wait until he is a free agent instead of having to give up prospects AND then try to keep him? Is there a small market team with one hole in RF that would give up a top 10 prospect because they completely know that they won't be able to sign him long term, but think that 2018 is "their year".

I just don't see enough coming back for one year of Harper to make up for his loss, even with signing J.D. Martinez.

There is. The Nationals if they trade away Bryce Harper.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 4943
Do you have any trade examples of a MVP-level player in their prime being traded in the offseason 1 year prior to them hitting free agency?

I don’t off the top of my head. But we can extrapolate based on players that are slightly less than Harper. Like a 5 or six win player. Do you think that someone is going to give a lot more for that 3 or 4 extra wins? There is a reason there aren’t many examples. Because teams don’t do it because they will never get equal value in return.

Offline Mattionals

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There is. The Nationals if they trade away Bryce Harper.

Nats aren't a small market, and I'm not even sure the Nats trade Robles for Harper if he was on another team and the Nats were one position away.

Offline imref

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Do you have any trade examples of a MVP-level player in their prime being traded in the offseason 1 year prior to them hitting free agency? 

Gretzky would be the only equivalent I can think of, but he wasn't heading into a FA year.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
I don’t off the top of my head. But we can extrapolate based on players that are slightly less than Harper. Like a 5 or six win player. Do you think that someone is going to give a lot more for that 3 or 4 extra wins? There is a reason there aren’t many examples. Because teams don’t do it because they will never get equal value in return.

The Nationals' trade for Soriano isn't too far off that, and suggests that the return would be utter crap.  Things have evolved a lot in the last decade, though. 

Offline bluestreak

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And the Yankees basically got Alex Rodriguez for Soriano. And that was for 2 more years before A-Rod opted out.

Offline Slateman

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Martinez isn't Harper and that was a 2 month rental.  It's not an apples to apples comparison AT ALL.
It's closer than anything else. You still haven't said what team is willing to trade for Harper and what they will give up.

The best example I can come up with is Justin Upton. The Braves traded him to the Padres in the offseason for Max Fried, Jace Peterson, Dustin Peterson, and Mallex Smith

Offline Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 1992
And the Yankees basically got Alex Rodriguez for Soriano. And that was for 2 more years before A-Rod opted out.

Yeah, but a lot of the issue with that was the money.  The Rangers weren't going anywhere and were trying to go cheap because they had a few millstone contracts around that time (Chan Ho Park, anyone?).   A lot more teams would probably be in the market for a $21 million superstar today than wanted one for $25 million or whatever it was back in the Dark Ages.

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 582
You're not getting that.

Martinez brought back  Dawel Lugo, Sergio Alcantara, and Jose King. None of them are even remotely high prospects.
Yes. Again, what team is one bat away from being a WS favorite and is willing to give up what it takes to get him? The Cubs were a closer away from being a WS champion and they made the move.

Who are you trading Harper for and what are you getting in return? Name names. Don't tell me "oh Chapman got this" That was at the deadline and back end relievers were artificially inflated at the time. Wade Davis cost less. David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle went for a lot less. The 2016 MLB trade deadline was an anomaly.

So like I said, start naming names. Would you give up Robles, Fedde, and Goodwin for one season of Mike Trout or JD Martinez?

For Trout? Absolutely. In a heartbeat. Guys like Harper or Trout would take teams that are on the cusp like Boston to a new level. But on the Nats Harper doesn't make that much of a difference because we are so deep 1-9. Which is why we wouldnt lose much production if we replaced him with a guy like JD.

Teams would be lining up to add a guy like Harper or Trout especially if that meant they could negotiate with him during the season which is something other teams cannot do.

Offline Slateman

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Yeah, but a lot of the issue with that was the money.  The Rangers weren't going anywhere and were trying to go cheap because they had a few millstone contracts around that time (Chan Ho Park, anyone?).   A lot more teams would probably be in the market for a $21 million superstar today than wanted one for $25 million or whatever it was back in the Dark Ages.

ARod's contract today would be worth 360+ million. He was traded after his third year, so there would be approximately 260 million left on it. How many teams can eat that today?

Offline Slateman

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For Trout? Absolutely. In a heartbeat. Guys like Harper or Trout would take teams that are on the cusp like Boston to a new level. But on the Nats Harper doesn't make that much of a difference because we are so deep 1-9. Which is why we wouldnt lose much production if we replaced him with a guy like JD.

Teams would be lining up to add a guy like Harper or Trout especially if that meant they could negotiate with him during the season which is something other teams cannot do.

Mike Trout and  his .083/.267/.333 line are gonna punch us to the World Series?

Guys like Trout and Harper aren't negotiating during the season. Harper especially. Everyone knows he's a merc at this point. You're trading to go all in for one season.