Here are the odds of where he'll end up. Note, these are just odds, so no matter where he goes, I can't have been wrong!
Nats: 30%
Dodgers: 20%
Cubs: 15%
Field: 35%
To summarize, the team he is most likely to end up with is the Nats. The Dodgers are the team he is most likely to go to if he leaves. He is more likely to leave than to stay. There is no team that he is more likely to go to than to not go to.
The good news is that here is the place he is most likely to end up. The bad news is that he likely to end up somewhere other than here. (Assuming you think he's a fair value at whatever he costs -- if you don't, then the converses are true -- the good news is someone else will likely be paying his $400M, and the bad news is that we are the team most likely to be paying his $400M.)
Where are these odds coming from?
