IDK man. Machado, Harper, Stanton would all be 25 million+ players. Then Judge, Bird, Gregorius, Severino, and anyone else will need bigger contracts. Tanaka is a 20 million+ guy. I don't see it, it's not efficient, which is Hal's whole MO.
Luxury Tax is based on AAV, not what the player makes that season, so assuming the Yankees move Ellsbury, they still have 64.343 Million tied up in 2019 in THREE PLAYERS. The Yankees estimated Arb for 2018 is 34 Million, and they aren't expected to lose any of those guys in 2019. Severino also will hit his first year of Arb in 2019. Add in 30 Million a year + for both Harper and Machado, and you run out of money pretty quickly.
So if I do my addition correctly; Stanton plus Tanaka plus Chapman plus Machado plus Harper AND minus ALL OF ELLSBURY'S CONTRACT, nets 129 Million. Add in the buyout for Gardner (I have no idea how that plays in so we will keep it at 2 Million) and add in the estimated 14 Million in player benefits, that is 145 Million in 2019. Add in the estimated 2.25 Million for players in the minors, and you are at a total of 147.593 Million. Now Arb raises are a complete estimate, but assume a 25% jump over 2018 estimated raises and lose Adam Warren. That adds up to 42.8125 Million. Now you are stuck at 191.4055 Million for 2019. That team has not added a Starting Pitcher, which is the biggest issue for the Yankees right now. Add in about 6 Million worth of MLB minimum pre-arb guys and you are bumped to 201.4055 Million. That is below the the tax threshold of 206 Million for 2019, but look at what you have with 2020. Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Hicks, and Gray are all free agents, but now you have Sanchez, Judge, Cessa, and Chad Green all hitting arb. The first two are going to do well, and the Yankees in this case still haven't dealt with another starter, and hopefully someone who can come in up at the top.
All this wall of text shows is that the prudent move that Hal and Cashman would much more likely do, is to sign an IF and a SP rather than an IF and another OF.
