Author Topic: Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)  (Read 9701 times)

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Offline UMDNats

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They're going to have even more money coming off after 2018. Plus, they will likely be under the luxury tax threshold.

Again, if the Yankees want, they can have Machado and Harper, no problem. This idea that somehow trading peanuts for Stanton takes them out of the running for Harper is just naivet√© by Nationals fans who are deluding themselves into thinking that they have a shot at signing Harper long term. 

IDK man. Machado, Harper, Stanton would all be 25 million+ players. Then Judge, Bird, Gregorius, Severino, and anyone else will need bigger contracts. Tanaka is a 20 million+ guy. I don't see it, it's not efficient, which is Hal's whole MO.

Offline Mattionals

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IDK man. Machado, Harper, Stanton would all be 25 million+ players. Then Judge, Bird, Gregorius, Severino, and anyone else will need bigger contracts. Tanaka is a 20 million+ guy. I don't see it, it's not efficient, which is Hal's whole MO.

Luxury Tax is based on AAV, not what the player makes that season, so assuming the Yankees move Ellsbury, they still have 64.343 Million tied up in 2019 in THREE PLAYERS. The Yankees estimated Arb for 2018 is 34 Million, and they aren't expected to lose any of those guys in 2019. Severino also will hit his first year of Arb in 2019. Add in 30 Million a year + for both Harper and Machado, and you run out of money pretty quickly.

So if I do my addition correctly; Stanton plus Tanaka plus Chapman plus Machado plus Harper AND minus ALL OF ELLSBURY'S CONTRACT, nets 129 Million. Add in the buyout for Gardner (I have no idea how that plays in so we will keep it at 2 Million) and add in the estimated 14 Million in player benefits, that is 145 Million in 2019. Add in the estimated 2.25 Million for players in the minors, and you are at a total of 147.593 Million. Now Arb raises are a complete estimate, but assume a 25% jump over 2018 estimated raises and lose Adam Warren. That adds up to 42.8125 Million. Now you are stuck at 191.4055 Million for 2019. That team has not added a Starting Pitcher, which is the biggest issue for the Yankees right now. Add in about 6 Million worth of MLB minimum pre-arb guys and you are bumped to 201.4055 Million. That is below the the tax threshold of 206 Million for 2019, but look at what you have with 2020. Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Hicks, and Gray are all free agents, but now you have Sanchez, Judge, Cessa, and Chad Green all hitting arb. The first two are going to do well, and the Yankees in this case still haven't dealt with another starter, and hopefully someone who can come in up at the top.

All this wall of text shows is that the prudent move that Hal and Cashman would much more likely do, is to sign an IF and a SP rather than an IF and another OF.

Offline welch

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Luxury Tax is based on AAV, not what the player makes that season, so assuming the Yankees move Ellsbury, they still have 64.343 Million tied up in 2019 in THREE PLAYERS. The Yankees estimated Arb for 2018 is 34 Million, and they aren't expected to lose any of those guys in 2019. Severino also will hit his first year of Arb in 2019. Add in 30 Million a year + for both Harper and Machado, and you run out of money pretty quickly.

So if I do my addition correctly; Stanton plus Tanaka plus Chapman plus Machado plus Harper AND minus ALL OF ELLSBURY'S CONTRACT, nets 129 Million. Add in the buyout for Gardner (I have no idea how that plays in so we will keep it at 2 Million) and add in the estimated 14 Million in player benefits, that is 145 Million in 2019. Add in the estimated 2.25 Million for players in the minors, and you are at a total of 147.593 Million. Now Arb raises are a complete estimate, but assume a 25% jump over 2018 estimated raises and lose Adam Warren. That adds up to 42.8125 Million. Now you are stuck at 191.4055 Million for 2019. That team has not added a Starting Pitcher, which is the biggest issue for the Yankees right now. Add in about 6 Million worth of MLB minimum pre-arb guys and you are bumped to 201.4055 Million. That is below the the tax threshold of 206 Million for 2019, but look at what you have with 2020. Gregorius, Romine, Betances, Hicks, and Gray are all free agents, but now you have Sanchez, Judge, Cessa, and Chad Green all hitting arb. The first two are going to do well, and the Yankees in this case still haven't dealt with another starter, and hopefully someone who can come in up at the top.

All this wall of text shows is that the prudent move that Hal and Cashman would much more likely do, is to sign an IF and a SP rather than an IF and another OF.

Yes.

From here in Yankee-land, it appears that they need: (1) An ace starting pitcher. (2) A number 3 starter, a pretty good pitcher something like Sonny Gray. A neighbor believes that Sabathia will be re-signed...maybe another $20M a season for a couple of years. (3) A 3B, depending on where they put Glayber Torres, if Torres is really a major leaguer.

The last thing the Yankees need is another LF/RF.

Ellsbury and Gardner are signed for a couple more years. Neither is likely attractive to other teams...too expensive and too old.

Offline UMDNats

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The Yankees need an ace? Severino just got Cy Young votes and Tanaka when on his game is ace-like. Gray is a mid-to-top of the rotation guy, too. Every team needs an ace I guess, but the Yankees really need a #5 (aka CC). But overall, an OF is still their lowest need on the priority list.

Online Natsinpwc

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Yes.

From here in Yankee-land, it appears that they need: (1) An ace starting pitcher. (2) A number 3 starter, a pretty good pitcher something like Sonny Gray. A neighbor believes that Sabathia will be re-signed...maybe another $20M a season for a couple of years. (3) A 3B, depending on where they put Glayber Torres, if Torres is really a major leaguer.

The last thing the Yankees need is another LF/RF.

Ellsbury and Gardner are signed for a couple more years. Neither is likely attractive to other teams...too expensive and too old.
Jeter will trade for them.

Online imref

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Per Jamal Collier on Twitter, Boras says he met with the Nats last month to start discussions on extending Harper.  When asked about the chances something gets done this off-season, Boras replied "that's up to ownership, we'll have to look at it and report back to Bryce"

Offline varoadking

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Per Jamal Collier on Twitter, Boras says he met with the Nats last month to start discussions on extending Harper.  When asked about the chances something gets done this off-season, Boras replied "that's up to ownership, we'll have to look at it and report back to Bryce"

I heard Boras asked recently about a Harper extension and he answered "that's up to the Nationals".  Interesting answer, because he usually says something like "that's up to Harper".  Makes me wonder if something is in the works.

Per Jamal Collier on Twitter, Boras says he met with the Nats last month to start discussions on extending Harper.  When asked about the chances something gets done this off-season, Boras replied "that's up to ownership, we'll have to look at it and report back to Bryce"

I just have a gut feeling that, like Strasburg, we hear about an extension during the season out of the blue.  I think there will no doubt be an opt-out, so at 25, Harper could still hit free agency at some point while in his prime years and leave if he wants to play elsewhere. 

Online imref

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I just have a gut feeling that, like Strasburg, we hear about an extension during the season out of the blue.  I think there will no doubt be an opt-out, so at 25, Harper could still hit free agency at some point while in his prime years and leave if he wants to play elsewhere. 

I hope so too.  I tend to discount the "Bryce wants out" talk.  IIRC, we heard the same about Strasburg, that he wanted to go back to the West Coast.

Offline nfotiu

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Yeah, I think we see something like that too.   

This year's free agent signings will have an impact.  I suspect salaries are going to correct across sports.  MLB cashed out on MLBAM, and no longer will have that revenue coming in.  Local TV deals are in for a big correction.   

The Yankees didn't think Stanton's Market value matched his salary and had Marlins retain salary.  The Yankees may listen if Harper wants to play there, but they're  not going to bid him up with Stanton and Judge there now. 

400 million is not realistic next year.  The problem is that Boras probably is denial of that.   If he has an MVP season next year, low 300s is probably the top end.  If he has any kind of significant injury, he isn't getting 200 million, and if he tore his ACL in spring training, he's not getting 100 million..   275 million with a bunch of opt outs that ensures a couple more years with the Nats should get it done I would think. 


Offline HalfSmokes

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Yeah, I think we see something like that too.   

This year's free agent signings will have an impact.  I suspect salaries are going to correct across sports.  MLB cashed out on MLBAM, and no longer will have that revenue coming in.  Local TV deals are in for a big correction.   

The Yankees didn't think Stanton's Market value matched his salary and had Marlins retain salary.  The Yankees may listen if Harper wants to play there, but they're  not going to bid him up with Stanton and Judge there now. 

400 million is not realistic next year.  The problem is that Boras probably is denial of that.   If he has an MVP season next year, low 300s is probably the top end.  If he has any kind of significant injury, he isn't getting 200 million, and if he tore his ACL in spring training, he's not getting 100 million..   275 million with a bunch of opt outs that ensures a couple more years with the Nats should get it done I would think. 



the teams with locked in TV deals are going to be haves for a long time to come, those who own their own stations, those without long term deals or whose deals come up for renewal will be have nats. Ratings tanking don't matter if you're locked in for a large number as long as the station doesn't go bankrupt 

Offline varoadking

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Yeah, I think we see something like that too.   

This year's free agent signings will have an impact.  I suspect salaries are going to correct across sports.  MLB cashed out on MLBAM, and no longer will have that revenue coming in.  Local TV deals are in for a big correction.   

The Yankees didn't think Stanton's Market value matched his salary and had Marlins retain salary.  The Yankees may listen if Harper wants to play there, but they're  not going to bid him up with Stanton and Judge there now. 

400 million is not realistic next year.  The problem is that Boras probably is denial of that.   If he has an MVP season next year, low 300s is probably the top end.  If he has any kind of significant injury, he isn't getting 200 million, and if he tore his ACL in spring training, he's not getting 100 million..   275 million with a bunch of opt outs that ensures a couple more years with the Nats should get it done I would think.

$275MM over how many years?  AAV is a more useful figure...for me anyway.

Offline nfotiu

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the teams with locked in TV deals are going to be haves for a long time to come, those who own their own stations, those without long term deals or whose deals come up for renewal will be have nats. Ratings tanking don't matter if you're locked in for a large number as long as the station doesn't go bankrupt 
I wonder how rock solid some of the deals are and how it will all play out.  It looks like ESPN is buying Fox Sports RSNs, which covers a lot of teams.  They already own MLB.TV.  MLB owns local streaming and could theoretically sell national in-market streaming to Disney who owns a bunch of pieces of that already.  That would basically make local TV deals almost worthless.

Is a deal like the Dodger's deal rock solid?  Could the channel just go bankrupt at some point, since I think it is its own entity owned by the Dodgers and Charter.   

Offline HalfSmokes

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$275MM over how many years?  AAV is a more useful figure...for me anyway.

50 if you include deferrals

Offline ChicagoCubs

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Now it's pretty much us, LA and the Cubs as the only realistic options. He ain't signing with some turd franchise. He wants spotlight. The Yankees were the perfect place for him regardless of his childhood fandom. LA and the Cubs scare me (especially since he's close with Bryant),

what about the Mets?  They know they need to up there game to compete against Yankees/Judge/Stanton and will probably go all in for Harper.

Offline ChicagoCubs

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Hardly. The Yankees, even with Stanton, can get under the luxury tax threshold. Which means they'll be right back in the mix in 2019. Harper is athletic enough to play CF.

I don't see Harper playing CF or deferring to anyone.  Which brings up a good point.  I don't think he is willing to share the limelight with Stanton and Judge.  Harper isn't going to play second fiddle or Scottie Pippen to them.  He's going to go to a team where it is his team and his city.

Offline Baseball is Life

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He's going to go to a team where it is his team and his city.

Or stay here and keep exactly that. :shrug:

Online dcpatti

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what about the Mets?  They know they need to up there game to compete against Yankees/Judge/Stanton and will probably go all in for Harper.

The Mets need to completely gut their medical and training staffs and redesign their entire approach to player health management before they will attract an elite player like Harper.


'
''Quote from: ChicagoCubs on Today at 05:18:47 PM
He's going to go to a team where it is his team and his city.

Or stay here and keep exactly that. :shrug:


^^ this.  DC is one of the few places where he can still be in on the "first" of something. First postseason series win, first championship run. Hopefully first World Series win.  All the Nats have to do is make him a fairly competitive offer and show him how they work the numbers to still be able to build a solid team around him.


Offline ChicagoCubs

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I saw this quote in an espn article today
I think that the Yankees are pretty much out of the Harper conversation, especially with the emergence of Judge.   The Dodgers are probably too deep into the luxury tax to go for Harper.   If neither of those teams are serious bidders, does Harper even get more than Stanton's contract in free agency?  Maybe there is a possibility that he hits free agency but still signs here.

Harper will get the most money.  He's a much better hitter than Stanton or Judge.  Stanton has never hit over 300.  Judge remains to be seen (.284) but Harper is actually younger than Judge so youth is not an excuse for Judge.

Both Stanton and Judge just hit bombs and wiff alot.

Harper is a much more complete player and has triple crown potential.

Harper is more marketable and hits a key demographic.

Harper will get paid.

Offline ChicagoCubs

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Or stay here and keep exactly that. :shrug:

I think he has a 50% chance of staying here.  And then the other 50% is shared between the other contenders. 
If I had to make a bet my money would be on the Nationals.

Offline UMDNats

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what about the Mets?  They know they need to up there game to compete against Yankees/Judge/Stanton and will probably go all in for Harper.

No chance he does that. Why would he? He'd be a laughingstock. He'd be laughed at as the Yankees' little brother for the rest of his career.

Online Natsinpwc

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I don't see Harper playing CF or deferring to anyone.  Which brings up a good point.  I don't think he is willing to share the limelight with Stanton and Judge.  Harper isn't going to play second fiddle or Scottie Pippen to them.  He's going to go to a team where it is his team and his city.
He's a millennial. The super team stuff is more important to them. Would Michael Jordan ever have done what Lebron and KD have done? No. Times have changed.

Offline HalfSmokes

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He's a millennial. The super team stuff is more important to them. Would Michael Jordan ever have done what Lebron and KD have done? No. Times have changed.

Times have certainly changed -can you imagine Kareem forcing his way to LA?

Online Natsinpwc

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Times have certainly changed -can you imagine Kareem forcing his way to LA?
Ahead of his time.

Or Wilt?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Ahead of his time.

Or Wilt?
or Mikan out of Minneapolis?