Author Topic: Harper trade speculation (breakout from off-season thread)  (Read 17459 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Martinez is barely 30.  Now that we're returning to normal hitter aging curves, 32 is a lot different than 30.  I'm not sure Stanton 2 years from now will be a better defender than JD is now, which is the defensive comparison.  Also, I wouldn't assume a "healthy" Stanton.  The freak face injury aside, the dude's had a number of problems with his legs, and he's the size of a small truck - not great for the knees.
7 years at $31MM AAV is serious cash, no question.  I just think it is premature to think the opt out is unlikely.  IT really depends on inflation generally in baseball and health specific to Stanton. 

What I take from all this is that it's not to wild to speculate about a deal built around Harper for Stanton.  If this were to happen, it'd be like Williams for DiMaggio, which was always rumored given the ballparks.

Offline Expos

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Martinez is barely 30.  Now that we're returning to normal hitter aging curves, 32 is a lot different than 30.  I'm not sure Stanton 2 years from now will be a better defender than JD is now, which is the defensive comparison.  Also, I wouldn't assume a "healthy" Stanton.  The freak face injury aside, the dude's had a number of problems with his legs, and he's the size of a small truck - not great for the knees.

Then move him to 1st in a few years when Zimm is gone

Offline nfotiu

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What I take from all this is that it's not to wild to speculate about a deal built around Harper for Stanton.  If this were to happen, it'd be like Williams for DiMaggio, which was always rumored given the ballparks.

I guess it depends on what the Marlins think they can realistically get for Stanton without retaining salary.   I don't know that a year of Harper is worth much to him than what he can get back in terms of a trade or comp picks.  I can't imagine Harper would be happy with that trade at all.  It could spoil their relationship with Boras and maybe some players.

Offline DPMOmaha

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I guess it depends on what the Marlins think they can realistically get for Stanton without retaining salary.   I don't know that a year of Harper is worth much to him than what he can get back in terms of a trade or comp picks.  I can't imagine Harper would be happy with that trade at all.  It could spoil their relationship with Boras and maybe some players.
If  you get Stanton back, though, that would salve a lot of any potential ill feelings. If you're trading Harper for Stanton, however, you're doing so while acknowledging that signing Harper to a long term deal isn't gonna happen here. At that point, Harpers feelings become moot. His feelings are only relevant as long as you still want and think you can sign him. Beyond that, you do what you think is best for the organization.

Offline nfotiu

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If  you get Stanton back, though, that would salve a lot of any potential ill feelings. If you're trading Harper for Stanton, however, you're doing so while acknowledging that signing Harper to a long term deal isn't gonna happen here. At that point, Harpers feelings become moot. His feelings are only relevant as long as you still want and think you can sign him. Beyond that, you do what you think is best for the organization.

I could see Boras turning his players against the Nats if he took a Harper trade badly.  As for Harper's feelings himself, it would make for an awkward year of replacing Stanton with 1 year of a guy who didn't want to be there and wasn't going to be there the next year.   

Offline Count Walewski

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Wait, why would Miami want a year of Bryce Harper in exchange for Stanton?

Online bluestreak

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Does trading Harper for Stanton (even straight up) make the team significantly better either next year or in the long run? I just don’t see it, but maybe I’m missing something.

For 2018, assuming both are healthy, how many more wins does Stanton bring you. Last year Stanton had a fWAR of 6.9 and Harper 4.8. And that’s with Harper hurt for a big chunk of time.

And in the future, does it make you significantly better? Remember, the Marlins are going to want significant prospects. And the outfield post 2018 looks pretty good. Obviously Stanton is better than any of those guys, but he costs a lot of money. Money that could be used in other places.

Plus, I think that people who want a Stanton trade expect 2017 production. If he produces at that level for two years he opts out. If he doesn’t he stays and ages in DC, eating up tons of money.

Seriously though, what am I missing?

Offline nfotiu

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Does trading Harper for Stanton (even straight up) make the team significantly better either next year or in the long run? I just don’t see it, but maybe I’m missing something.

For 2018, assuming both are healthy, how many more wins does Stanton bring you. Last year Stanton had a fWAR of 6.9 and Harper 4.8. And that’s with Harper hurt for a big chunk of time.

And in the future, does it make you significantly better? Remember, the Marlins are going to want significant prospects. And the outfield post 2018 looks pretty good. Obviously Stanton is better than any of those guys, but he costs a lot of money. Money that could be used in other places.

Plus, I think that people who want a Stanton trade expect 2017 production. If he produces at that level for two years he opts out. If he doesn’t he stays and ages in DC, eating up tons of money.

Seriously though, what am I missing?
   
It's really hard to value what these guys are worth in a trade with their contract situations.   Can the Marlins get a high prospect without keeping salary for Stanton?   Is a year of Harper worth any more than the comp pick Marlins would get? (I think the Marlins are a team that would get a pick after the first round).  If the answer to both those questions is no, then a one for one swap is about right.

Offline NJ Ave

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Yes, but the way that contract is weighted, I wouldn't expect him to opt out.  Do you expect him to be in a position to get 7/218 (counting the buyout of the 8th year) as a 32 year old?  That's pretty close to Pujols-level bad in terms of contracts for 32-year-old MVP-level hitters.

It doesn't really matter if you *expect* him to opt out. If it was all guaranteed with no opt outs, how would that be any better? At least currently, there's a chance that he opts out. 7/$218 million will be what he's owed, heading into his age-31 season. I think there's probably a small chance he opts out, say 20%.

But it any case, my point was that people tend to see player opt-outs as a bad thing, but I really have never gotten that logic. So what if all the years are guaranteed if something goes "wrong". That's no different than a contract that has no opt outs. And if the player actually does opt out, you very likely just got him at a below market value level for the number of years you got him.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Does trading Harper for Stanton (even straight up) make the team significantly better either next year or in the long run? I just don’t see it, but maybe I’m missing something.

For 2018, assuming both are healthy, how many more wins does Stanton bring you. Last year Stanton had a fWAR of 6.9 and Harper 4.8. And that’s with Harper hurt for a big chunk of time.

And in the future, does it make you significantly better? Remember, the Marlins are going to want significant prospects. And the outfield post 2018 looks pretty good. Obviously Stanton is better than any of those guys, but he costs a lot of money. Money that could be used in other places.

Plus, I think that people who want a Stanton trade expect 2017 production. If he produces at that level for two years he opts out. If he doesn’t he stays and ages in DC, eating up tons of money.

Seriously though, what am I missing?

If we were going to deal for Stanton why wouldn't we just pay Harper instead?

Online HalfSmokes

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But it any case, my point was that people tend to see player opt-outs as a bad thing, but I really have never gotten that logic. So what if all the years are guaranteed if something goes "wrong". That's no different than a contract that has no opt outs. And if the player actually does opt out, you very likely just got him at a below market value level for the number of years you got him.

it's fundamentally different- a contract with no opt out places the risk of a bad performance on the team, but gives them the upside of good performance. A player opt out leaves the risk of bad performance with the team, but removes the benefit of the upside from the team 

Offline Slateman

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If we were going to deal for Stanton why wouldn't we just pay Harper instead?
Stanton costs 100-200 million less

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Wait, why would Miami want a year of Bryce Harper in exchange for Stanton?
flip him in July.  Potentially easier to deal than taking on a 10 year commitment to Stanton. Hypothetically, get say Fedde and C Kieboom (or more) from the Nats along with Harper, then get a Chapman-like haul at the deadline for Harper.  1 player, 2 moves, maybe 6 prospects. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Seriously though, what am I missing?
Stanton's contract will be cheaper than Bryce's on both an AAV and total dollar basis.  The opt out may even make it likely you get 3 years of prime Stanton w/o the later decline years.  Stanton may even be a better ball player over the next 3 years.  Better deal, better ballplayer, why not?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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If we were going to deal for Stanton why wouldn't we just pay Harper instead?
because there's no way Bryce signs for 10 years, $295MM.  This likely saves you $50MM (assuming a home town discount of $35MM/ season) to $100MM (assuming a $40MM AAV) over 10 years.

Offline Ray D

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  If this were to happen, it'd be like Williams for DiMaggio, which was always rumored given the ballparks.
This was not a rumor.  The Yankees and Red Sox GMs/owners actually agreed to this trade one night.  The next morning they woke up, realized what an insane idea it was, and mutually agreed  to nullify it.  Point being, DiMaggio was too closely associated with the Yankees and Williams with the Red Sox.  And the same reasoning applies here. This will never happen. 

Offline Expos

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This was not a rumor.  The Yankees and Red Sox GMs/owners actually agreed to this trade one night.  The next morning they woke up, realized what an insane idea it was, and mutually agreed  to nullify it.  Point being, DiMaggio was too closely associated with the Yankees and Williams with the Red Sox.  And the same reasoning applies here. This will never happen.

It doesn't matter how closely Harper is associated with the Nats franchise. We will see how loyal he is when the Yankees and all the press clippings he can handle come calling.

Offline Ray D

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It doesn't matter how closely Harper is associated with the Nats franchise. We will see how loyal he is when the Yankees and all the press clippings he can handle come calling.
Harper can leave on his own, and the fans have nobody to nag about except Harper. My point is, we can't trade him.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Then move him to 1st in a few years when Zimm is gone

Well, the point is that a first base move is likely.  But for a guy who's never played infield, 1B at age 32 is not a slam dunk.  First base is by far the easiest of the infield positions, but it's not as easy as people who have never played it seem to think.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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First base is by far the easiest of the infield positions, but it's not as easy as people who have never played it seem to think.
So, you are Ron Washington?

Offline DPMOmaha

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Well, the point is that a first base move is likely.  But for a guy who's never played infield, 1B at age 32 is not a slam dunk.  First base is by far the easiest of the infield positions, but it's not as easy as people who have never played it seem to think.
Took me two innings to make the transition for my slow-pitch softball team.

Online varoadking

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Took me two innings to make the transition for my slow-pitch softball team.

Zimm hasn't made the transition yet.  Maybe he should try slow-pitch softball...

Offline DPMOmaha

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Zimm hasn't made the transition yet.  Maybe he should try slow-pitch softball...
Or I should try Major League Baseball.  :shrug:

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Took me two innings to make the transition for my slow-pitch softball team.

It took me zero innings to instantly become a .700 hitter and above-average shortstop in slow pitch, but that doesn't make it the same on a full-sized diamond.  Same with 1B, where you need to deal with holding runners on, charging bunts, handling pickoff throws with a runner sliding into your ankles, and getting your fat ass back to the bag from 30 feet away to handle the return throw on a 3-6-3 on a real field, whereas in slow-pitch you mostly need to worry about if the beer is getting warm.   

So, you are Ron Washington?

No, I prefer my coke in liquid form.

Offline DPMOmaha

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whereas in slow-pitch you mostly need to worry about if the beer is getting warm.   
Not an insignificant concern.