Author Topic: 2018 Prospect Lists  (Read 2385 times)

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Online imref

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2018 Prospect Lists
« Topic Start: November 01, 2017, 01:49:49 PM »
BBA's list is out:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2018-washington-nationals-top-10-prospects/#K27hFchcKfSG6zVj.97

1. Robles
2. Soto
3. Fedde
4. C. Kieboom
5. Seth Romero
6. Luis Garcia
7. Will Crowe
8. Daniel Johnson
9. Raudy Reed
10. Yasel Antuna

Projected 2021 Lineup (with 2021 age)

🔸C Raudy Read (27)
🔸1B Daniel Murphy (36)
🔸2B Wilmer Difo (29)
🔸3B Anthony Rendon (31)
🔸SS Trea Turner (28)
🔸LF Adam Eaton (32)
🔸CF Victor Robles (24)
🔸RF Bryce Harper (28)
🔸SP Stephen Strasburg (32)
🔸SP Max Scherzer (36)
🔸SP Joe Ross (28)
🔸SP Erick Fedde (28)
🔸SP Wil Crowe (26)
🔸CL Seth Romero (25)

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #1: November 01, 2017, 01:55:18 PM »
Interesting. They see us extending Murphy, Rendon and Harper!

Online imref

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #2: November 01, 2017, 03:17:36 PM »
Interesting. They see us extending Murphy, Rendon and Harper!

but not Weiters. :)

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #3: November 02, 2017, 09:59:27 PM »
any scouting reports on crowe available?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #4: November 03, 2017, 08:19:38 AM »
I don't have a linked FTP thread for him yet.  Do you want to see what you can dig up?


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #6: December 29, 2017, 03:12:09 PM »
Imref suggests it in the Crowe thread, but I think there's a very good chance to see some guys fly up the system this season.  There's kind of a gap between the ML-ready / near ready top of the system and the lower levels of the system.  At this point, Robles and Stevenson, Read, and Sanchez probably are your in-house position depth, Fedde, Adams, Suero, and a few others on the Syracuse shuttle, and nothing blocking Crowe, Romero, Soto, C Kieboom from moving up as fast as appropriate.  I'll be really curious if they try to start Kieboom and Soto in Potomac. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #7: January 03, 2018, 12:52:57 PM »
https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/12/24/16816918/washington-nationals-top-20-prospects-for-2018
I think the've overrated everyone after Fedde. Maybe they're judging by ceiling, but I just don't think you can give B level grades to guys who are 17.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #8: January 03, 2018, 01:38:04 PM »
I think the've overrated everyone after Fedde. Maybe they're judging by ceiling, but I just don't think you can give B level grades to guys who are 17.

I agree with this, although I think Sickels inflates across the board and that matters. I think his B- is more like a Fangraphs 45 and his C+ is more like a Fangraphs 40.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #9: January 04, 2018, 08:53:04 AM »
I agree with this, although I think Sickels inflates across the board and that matters. I think his B- is more like a Fangraphs 45 and his C+ is more like a Fangraphs 40.
To some extent, yes.

I'd much rather see him break his grades down like Fangraphs does: Floor/Probable outcome/Ceiling

Like Robles floor is probably a 50 grade outfielder.
His ceilng is 2009-2010 Carl Crawford's.
His probable outcome is probably more like 2014 Lorenzo Cain or 2015 Odubel Herrera

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #10: January 04, 2018, 09:21:43 AM »
As long as we're talking about scouting report pet peeves, my biggest one is probably when they write up a SP's FB as "90-96" or "91-95". Would you write up that a hitter has a .250-.290 hit tool or a 10-25 HR power tool? Gimme a break. I understand that a lot of guy's have velocity variations at lower levels, but it's way more helpful to say "sits 91-93 now and may add velocity as his mechanics get cleaned up/he fills out" etc.

AJ Cole was a classic example of this phenomenon. He was being written up as having a 55-60 FB and then he got up here and was throwing 91 MPH.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #11: January 04, 2018, 11:24:30 AM »
As long as we're talking about scouting report pet peeves, my biggest one is probably when they write up a SP's FB as "90-96" or "91-95". Would you write up that a hitter has a .250-.290 hit tool or a 10-25 HR power tool? Gimme a break. I understand that a lot of guy's have velocity variations at lower levels, but it's way more helpful to say "sits 91-93 now and may add velocity as his mechanics get cleaned up/he fills out" etc.

AJ Cole was a classic example of this phenomenon. He was being written up as having a 55-60 FB and then he got up here and was throwing 91 MPH.
Same for Giolito. His grade right now is a 60. In 2015, it was 65 with a ceiling of 70.

Honestly, unless you are getting crazy ass movement/deception on your fastball, you shouldn't be above a 55 with average velo under 94.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #12: January 04, 2018, 11:47:43 AM »
Honestly, unless you are getting crazy ass movement/deception on your fastball, you shouldn't be above a 55 with average velo under 94.
my goodness, something I agree with from you!

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #13: January 04, 2018, 12:04:15 PM »
Same for Giolito. His grade right now is a 60. In 2015, it was 65 with a ceiling of 70.

Yes, Giolito was another good example. "He sits 93-94, but touches triple digits when he reaches back for more".

Yeah, get back to me when he's "reaching back for more" 90% of the time instead of 5% of the time. Until then, what a guy sits at is how fast he throws. These guys aren't in the habit of adding an extra degree of difficulty by withholding MPH for kicks.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #14: January 04, 2018, 01:40:48 PM »
Yes, Giolito was another good example. "He sits 93-94, but touches triple digits when he reaches back for more".

Yeah, get back to me when he's "reaching back for more" 90% of the time instead of 5% of the time. Until then, what a guy sits at is how fast he throws. These guys aren't in the habit of adding an extra degree of difficulty by withholding MPH for kicks.
I could have lived with 93-94. I felt like by the third inning, he was 90-92

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #15: January 09, 2018, 11:51:47 AM »
a bit of a fantasy perspective, but Mark Hulet has lots of love for our recent system crop of outfielders, plus Wil Crowe.
https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/a-minor-review-of-2017-washington-nationals/

discusses Goodwin (the graduate), Stevenson (1st taste of the bigs), Robles (the stud), Johnson (the sleeper), and Soto (the riser). Very high on Goodwin as a long term 4th OF you could start, especially if the Ks drop, and thinks Stevenson is a 4th OF/platoon guy.  Robles is elite with a great makeup.  Thinks more of Crowe than Romero due to Romero's head.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #16: January 22, 2018, 09:07:07 AM »
Kind of surprised that neither Carter Kieboom nor Fedde ended up in Keith Law’s 51-100 list. I assume neither will make the top 50, so he must be down on our system.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #17: January 28, 2018, 08:21:29 AM »
3 in the MLB Top 100: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects

Robles #6
Soto #29
C. Kieboom #90

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #18: January 28, 2018, 10:06:11 AM »
That seems perfectly average

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #19: January 28, 2018, 04:23:37 PM »
3 in the MLB Top 100: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=prospects

Robles #6
Soto #29
C. Kieboom #90
that's as high as I think I've seen Soto

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #20: January 29, 2018, 09:02:20 AM »
that's as high as I think I've seen Soto

Yeah, he's a pretty ridiculous hitter. With health last season, is it crazy to think there might not be much to separate him from Vlad Jr.?

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #21: January 29, 2018, 09:41:06 AM »
Does Fedde not count as a prospect anymore?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #22: January 29, 2018, 10:17:32 AM »
Yeah, he's a pretty ridiculous hitter. With health last season, is it crazy to think there might not be much to separate him from Vlad Jr.?
I'd say he's Vladi's real child, except he draws walks.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #23: January 29, 2018, 10:18:21 AM »
Does Fedde not count as a prospect anymore?
Fedde is still rookie eligible, but some of the bloom is off.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2018 Prospect Lists
« Reply #24: January 29, 2018, 10:35:10 AM »
Fedde is still rookie eligible, but some of the bloom is off.

Really? Huh. I didn't see anything that should result in that. It was obvious he was raw, but his stuff was good. It's not like he was proclaimed to be living in the upper 90s and coming into the game throwing 91. His breaking ball was solid. Needs to develop stamina, but his stuff is good. If Dunning is on there, I don't see why Fedde wouldn' tbe.