Author Topic: Fire Dave Martinez - 79.4% Playoff Probability  (Read 145270 times)

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Offline LoveAngelos

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This team does OK for a rudderless ship.

Is it too early to declare the Martinez hire a disaster???

Online Slateman

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This team does OK for a rudderless ship.

Is it too early to declare the Martinez hire a disaster???
Assuming the expectation was a deep playoff run, yes.

I honestly dont think Rizzo was expecting that.  Certainly not this year

Offline UMDNats

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What sucks is I don't think we will bottom out enough (or if we do it will be too late) to crap can him. I think he should be gone if it's May 15 and were in the same spot but this org doesn't strike me as a "500 play is unacceptable" kind of org.

Online PowerBoater69

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What sucks is I don't think we will bottom out enough (or if we do it will be too late) to crap can him. I think he should be gone if it's May 15 and were in the same spot but this org doesn't strike me as a "500 play is unacceptable" kind of org.

The NL East isn't looking nearly as good as was originally thought. A .500 club could stay in the running for the division into mid September.

Online Slateman

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The NL East isn't looking nearly as good as was originally thought. A .500 club could stay in the running for the division into mid September.
:lmao:

It's looking exactly like everyone but you thought. It's going to beat up itself because its filled with competitive teams.

Martinez has faced more .500 teams in his own division in the last month than Dusty faced in 2  seasons.

Online Slateman

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What sucks is I don't think we will bottom out enough (or if we do it will be too late) to crap can him. I think he should be gone if it's May 15 and were in the same spot but this org doesn't strike me as a "500 play is unacceptable" kind of org.
I dunno. Lerners are dropping a lot of money. It's one thing when you're winning the division. But a .500 team isn't going to get the same attendance numbers. That's going to affect their bottom line. Which means they might not be willing to accept back to back .500 seasons and missing the playoffs.

Online PowerBoater69

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:lmao:

It's looking exactly like everyone but you thought. It's going to beat up itself because its filled with competitive teams.

Martinez has faced more .500 teams in his own division in the last month than Dusty faced in 2  seasons.

The combined division record isn't dropping because they are playing each other. Just the opposite, most of the NL East wins are coming against NL East teams.

Offline Natsinpwc

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The combined division record isn't dropping because they are playing each other. Just the opposite, most of the NL East wins are coming against NL East teams.
I looked it up and the records of the teams are about the same in the division as well as against the other division.  Not enough data at this time but the teams all have flaws. 

Online PowerBoater69

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I looked it up and the records of the teams are about the same in the division as well as against the other division.  Not enough data at this time but the teams all have flaws. 

As a division the NL East is seven games below 500. Tied with the AL Central for worst. According to Baseball Reference only three teams have had an easier schedule than the Nats. But it is early and we're in a weak division so plenty of time to make a run.

Online Slateman

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The combined division record isn't dropping because they are playing each other. Just the opposite, most of the NL East wins are coming against NL East teams.

But so are their losses :lmao:


Offline Kevrock

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As a division the NL East is seven games below 500. Tied with the AL Central for worst. According to Baseball Reference only three teams have had an easier schedule than the Nats. But it is early and we're in a weak division so plenty of time to make a run.

17-17 outside of division if you eliminate the Marlins and look at the big 4, 32-28 within the division. When we talk about the toughness of the division, we’re not talking about the Marlins. They are going to be an outlier all year.

So the win rates inside and outside the division for the big 4 are about the same, a few more wins inside.

I don’t think it’s a weak division, though.

Online PowerBoater69

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17-17 outside of division if you eliminate the Marlins and look at the big 4, 32-28 within the division. When we talk about the toughness of the division, we’re not talking about the Marlins. They are going to be an outlier all year.

So the win rates inside and outside the division for the big 4 are about the same, a few more wins inside.

I don’t think it’s a weak division, though.

Eliminating the Marlins for outside the division but not inside does skew the numbers. Which divisions don't look better if you take out the worst team?

Offline Kevrock

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Yes it would, but I did eliminate the Marlins from my inside the division numbers.

Offline Kevrock

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Oh I see what you're saying, hang on

Offline Kevrock

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I think the Big 4 are 24-24 against each other in division, which is the same Win % as out of division

I'm on Mobile though, so this could be horribly wrong lol.

.

Online PowerBoater69

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District on Deck has called for Martinez to be fired.

Quote
After a rookie campaign marred by sloppy play and managerial gaffes, Martinez’s in-game mistakes resumed on his second Opening Day and haven’t let up since. From consistently failing to manufacture runs with men on base to chronically misusing the bullpen and bench, Martinez simply hasn’t proven himself capable of managing at the sport’s highest level.


https://districtondeck.com/2019/04/25/washington-nationals-fire-davey-martinez/amp/

Offline hotshot

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District on Deck has called for Martinez to be fired.
 

https://districtondeck.com/2019/04/25/washington-nationals-fire-davey-martinez/amp/
I'm for firing Martinez but ... bullpen failure is not on him. No manager could make an effective pen out of this weak group of arms. 

Online Slateman

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The Nationals have the 9th best runs per game in baseball. Discussion of "manufacturing runs" is dumb.

Misusing the bullpen? Misusing what? It is a garbage bullpen with a dude in it who he can't use except in wildly differential scores. It's Davey's fault that the pen is crap now? Really?

Fundamentals has been a problem with this team for the entire time it's been winning divisions. It's been noted time and time again on this board. Is it Davey's fault or the players? Or is it a problem with player development in the minors?

And then it compares with Baker but fails to take into account how bad the rest of the division was and how much more talent Baker had available to him. Or how badly Baker screwed up in both of his post seasons here in DC.

Online varoadking

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District on Deck has called for Martinez to be fired.
https://districtondeck.com/2019/04/25/washington-nationals-fire-davey-martinez/amp/

The author get's points off for using an FP-ism:

Martinez simply hasn’t proven himself capable of managing at the sport’s highest level.

Online PowerBoater69

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And then it compares with Baker but fails to take into account how bad the rest of the division was and how much more talent Baker had available to him. Or how badly Baker screwed up in both of his post seasons here in DC.

The rest of the division is still bad, the talent has improved in places, but good point about Martinez being better in the post season.

Online Slateman

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The rest of the division is still bad, the talent has improved in places, but good point about Martinez being better in the post season.
:lmao:

What the freak are you talking about? Everyone  but one team in the division is .500 or better. The division is head and shoulders better than it was at any point in the previous two seasons.

Baker was fired because he failed in the postseaon and it was a failure that highlighted his inability to evolve with the game. It was painfully obvious that no one was going to win with Baker at the helm. He simply lacks the intuition and understanding of analytics to make tough decisions. Cases in point: Using Scherzer on one day rest, letting Gio pitch, continually starting Jayson Werth in the playoffs, and letting Danny Espinosa play SS when it was obvious he couldn't hit water if threw him out of a submarine.

Online PowerBoater69

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:lmao:

What the freak are you talking about? Everyone  but one team in the division is .500 or better. The division is head and shoulders better than it was at any point in the previous two seasons.

Baker was fired because he failed in the postseaon and it was a failure that highlighted his inability to evolve with the game. It was painfully obvious that no one was going to win with Baker at the helm. He simply lacks the intuition and understanding of analytics to make tough decisions. Cases in point: Using Scherzer on one day rest, letting Gio pitch, continually starting Jayson Werth in the playoffs, and letting Danny Espinosa play SS when it was obvious he couldn't hit water if threw him out of a submarine.

Every single division has a better first place team than the NLE, every division has a better second place team. Four mediocre teams and one bad one, that's the might National League East.

Online Slateman

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Every single division has a better first place team than the NLE, every division has a better second place team. Four mediocre teams and one bad one, that's the might National League East.
And that still surpasses anything that Baker ever faced in his two years here. He faced one mediocre team and seven bad ones. Even you could have managed the team to 95+ wins in 2017

Offline Natsinpwc

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 :popcorn: