Author Topic: Fire Dave Martinez - 85.7% Playoff Probability  (Read 145665 times)

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Online Natsinpwc

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Balls are going to land somewhere near Boulder.
He can’t throw that far. They will only make the back stop.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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He can’t throw that far. They will only make the back stop.

Assuming he gets one at 100 over the plate, with zero humidity reducing ball movement to zippy, the ball's going out at 150 MPH.

Big assumption. I know.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 16232
Can't give up monster HRs if you just walk every batter

Offline Greg_SRT

  • Posts: 2826
  • Don't give up
Assuming he gets one at 100 over the plate, with zero humidity reducing ball movement to zippy, the ball's going out at 150 MPH.

Big assumption. I know.

That’s really gonna hurt whoever is in the batters box

I kid of course. He will figure it out soon

Offline Air Desmond

  • Posts: 1528
It looks like we’re in for another never ending cycle of .500 baseball. Pure torture. Win a game. Lose a game. Win a game. Lose 2 games. Win 2 games. Lose a game.

Drives me nuts! String some wins together and get out of this rut. I understand that’s a lot to ask with this bullpen. They make winning multiple games in a row seem impossible.

Offline Air Desmond

  • Posts: 1528
Found this gem on Twitter. The Davey Martinez bullpen flowchart



Offline tomwvr

  • Posts: 969
It’s time to fire the entire staff. This is what they are going to give you. If sub 500 baseball
Is acceptable then don’t fire them...

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 12850
It looks like we’re in for another never ending cycle of .500 baseball. Pure torture. Win a game. Lose a game. Win a game. Lose 2 games. Win 2 games. Lose a game.

Drives me nuts! String some wins together and get out of this rut. I understand that’s a lot to ask with this bullpen. They make winning multiple games in a row seem impossible.

You are absolutely correct...Every win we get feels like a big deal, like we lucked out with the bullpen not giving enough runs to the other team.  We are not winning 80 games this season.  Injuries are piling up, bullpen won't get fixed in time.  Scherzer aging.

Offline hotshot

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Who'll be the first to go on the non-player side of things? My bet is Lilliquist.

Offline BuckyHarris

  • Posts: 230
  • Waiting for 1924
You are absolutely correct...Every win we get feels like a big deal, like we lucked out with the bullpen not giving enough runs to the other team.  We are not winning 80 games this season.  Injuries are piling up, bullpen won't get fixed in time.  Scherzer aging.
And we're doing this against sub-.500 teams. After the Padres and Cards series, what?
Bullpen ERAs today:
28. Royals 6.04
29. Orioles 6.81
30. Nats 7.34

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 12850
And we're doing this against sub-.500 teams. After the Padres and Cards series, what?
Bullpen ERAs today:
28. Royals 6.04
29. Orioles 6.81
30. Nats 7.34
So the Nats bullpen basically gives up 1 run per inning.  Which means that if our starter goes 6 innings, we need to be up by 4 or so in the 6th to have a realistic shot at winning.  If we want to win 15 out of 20 games, then we have to be up by at least 4 runs after 6 innings in 15 out of 20 games.   That simply won't happen.

Offline UMDNats

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So the Nats bullpen basically gives up 1 run per inning.  Which means that if our starter goes 6 innings, we need to be up by 4 or so in the 6th to have a realistic shot at winning.  If we want to win 15 out of 20 games, then we have to be up by at least 4 runs after 6 innings in 15 out of 20 games.   That simply won't happen.

Fortunately the organization has seen the problem too and is fixing it - see how they almost signed Bud Norris and did sign someone named Dan Jennings.

"help is on the way!"

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Fortunately the organization has seen the problem too and is fixing it - see how they almost signed Bud Norris and did sign someone named Dan Jennings.

"help is on the way!"
Great, I'll change my username to HelpsOnThe Way and remove my Hindenburg avatar.

Offline BuckyHarris

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  • Waiting for 1924
Great, I'll change my username to HelpsOnThe Way and remove my Hindenburg avatar.
Now that's funny. We need a laugh.

Online PowerBoater69

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So the Nats bullpen basically gives up 1 run per inning.  Which means that if our starter goes 6 innings, we need to be up by 4 or so in the 6th to have a realistic shot at winning.  If we want to win 15 out of 20 games, then we have to be up by at least 4 runs after 6 innings in 15 out of 20 games.   That simply won't happen.

The Nats can score after the sixth, so they don't necessarily need a four run lead.

Online PowerBoater69

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Who'll be the first to go on the non-player side of things? My bet is Lilliquist.

During Lilliquist week I looked up some info on him, surprisingly little available despite his time in St Louis. His teams always had good pitching. He is not considered an analytics guy, which leads to the question of why he was hired with Martinez when the Nats were trying to become more stats based. According to the Athletic the Nats wanted to keep Maddux but he left when they let Baker go.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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The Nats can score after the sixth, so they don't necessarily need a four run lead.

I thought about that too, except whatever piddly amount of scoring they do will pale in comparison to the runs given up. 

Online mitlen

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I thought about that too, except whatever piddly amount of scoring they don will pale in comparison to the runs given up. 

Sounds like something that needs a formula for advanced analytics.

Online PowerBoater69

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Sounds like something that needs a formula for advanced analytics.

When you do college savings calculators they always go ages 0-18, for some reason they assume that you will stop saving as soon as they start school. This calculation reminded me of that, the Nats need to plan on scoring all of their runs by the end of the sixth because they can't count on anything late.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 12850
When you do college savings calculators they always go ages 0-18, for some reason they assume that you will stop saving as soon as they start school. This calculation reminded me of that, the Nats need to plan on scoring all of their runs by the end of the sixth because they can't count on anything late.

Fine...  We need to up by 3 instead of 4.

Offline sixthree175

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I just caught on about the replacement manager of the week idea.  When is it going to be Dave Jageler week?

Online PowerBoater69

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Fine...  We need to up by 3 instead of 4.

One run tonight. All is well.

Online imref

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I just caught on about the replacement manager of the week idea.  When is it going to be Dave Jageler week?

He comes after Screech and Terrance.

Offline Slateman

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