Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Interesting.  With a 5 man rotation for 4 slots, you get each time for 130 games.  Add in 9 games in AL parks for a DH, and, assuming no injuries, that is close to 140 games, which would be in the 550 - 600 PA range.  Any injury alters it a bit, but what you are suggesting is that, with a little flexibility and willingness to give guys days off, you can come pretty close to giving these guys full-time gigs. This calls into question the "Eaton must go if Bryce stays" view.

Yea, although I wouldn't expect an even split.  Injuries will happen, and even if Zim avoids the DL, he'd sit more than the others I believe.  But yea, even if everybody stayed healthy all year, there is plenty of PT to go around.

[bluestreak]

Yea, although I wouldn't expect an even split.  Injuries will happen, and even if Zim avoids the DL, he'd sit more than the others I believe.  But yea, even if everybody stayed healthy all year, there is plenty of PT to go around.

Do you think that this coaching staff is innovative enough to come up with this type of solution? I do not. 

[Ray D]

Do you think that this coaching staff is innovative enough to come up with this type of solution? I do not. 

But they don't have to come up with it, they only need to read this forum.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Do you think that this coaching staff is innovative enough to come up with this type of solution? I do not.

I don't think I'm smarter than Rizzo when it comes to this baseball stuff.  If it could work and is the best option, I'm sure they'll do it without my input haha.

[imref]

https://fancredsports.com/articles/jon-heyman-nats-havent-given-up-hope-to-retain-h

In any case, word is, they do plan to make a strong effort to try to keep superstar outfielder Bryce Harper. But just in case they are unable to do so, Nats people are said to be preparing two winter plans: one with Harper (who turned 26 Tuesday) and without him.

Nats people love Harper, the young homegrown star who’s ultra popular with fans who love having a superstar position player with power they can call their own. And while there’s a perception that drama surrounds Harper in some circles, the Nats don’t see it that way; they view him as a spirited young man who’s enthusiastic about the game, a gym rat type who’s driven to succeed. If there has been a bit of drama, it may not be his fault that the team has shown favoritism on occasion toward their prodigy.

[Slateman]

The plan with Harper would be interesting.

Basically, if the Nats are going to compete, they're going to have to trade one of Turner, Robles, or Rendon, as well as Eaton or Keiboom.

[imref]

The plan with Harper would be interesting.

Basically, if the Nats are going to compete, they're going to have to trade one of Turner, Robles, or Rendon, as well as Eaton or Keiboom.

Eaton is gone if we keep Harper.   I don't think they deal any of the others.

[NJ Ave]

Basically, if the Nats are going to compete, they're going to have to trade one of Turner, Robles, or Rendon, as well as Eaton or Keiboom.

Why's that?

[Slateman]

Why's that?

Because the team has too many holes and the 30+ million that Harper is going to eat up wont let them fill them via free agency. Not unless the Lerners want to go big into the luxury tax. And early reports from Jane's says they want to reduce payroll

[NJ Ave]

Because the team has too many holes and the 30+ million that Harper is going to eat up wont let them fill them via free agency. Not unless the Lerners want to go big into the luxury tax. And early reports from Jane's says they want to reduce payroll

No, I'm wondering why you think it's possible, for a team facing salary constraints, to improve their situation by trading away cheap 3-4 win players?

Eaton would have to go because otherwise it's too many OF.

And Harper's $30 million 2019 salary is just replacing the salaries of Harper and Wieters in 2018. Here's the breakdown from last offseason. I think this is still close. http://www.talknats.com/2017/12/30/the-washington-nationals-salary-projections-and-bryce-harper/

2019 Tax Basis, assuming Eaton trade
Scherzer: $28.69
Strasburg: $25
Zimmerman: $16.67
Rendon: $18
Roark: $12
Doolittle: $6
Taylor: $6
Kendrick: $4
Turner: $3
Ross: $2
Solis: $2
Barraclough: $2

Total: $125.36 million

So despite your repeated declarations that the Nationals have no money to spend, I just don't see it. They can sign Bryce and take care of the rest of the minimum contracts and be at $165 million or so, with a cap of $206 next season.

[NJ Ave]

And Eaton should be able to bring you back something of pretty significant value.

[bluestreak]

The plan with Harper would be interesting.

Basically, if the Nats are going to compete, they're going to have to trade one of Turner, Robles, or Rendon, as well as Eaton or Keiboom.

Trade away all your cost-controlled good players/prospects. Makes total sense.

[NJ Ave]

You went into the 2018 season with C+OF salaries of $40.64 million from Wieters, Harper, Eaton, and MAT.

Assuming you're filling two 2019 OF positions with Soto/Robles at minimum salaries totaling $1 million, that leaves you $39.64 million to sign Bryce and get something at C, at no additional cost and contributing likely more WAR to the team in 2019.

[Natsinpwc]

You went into the 2018 season with C+OF salaries of $40.64 million from Wieters, Harper, Eaton, and MAT.

Assuming you're filling two 2019 OF positions with Soto/Robles at minimum salaries totaling $1 million, that leaves you $39.64 million to sign Bryce and get something at C, at no additional cost and contributing likely more WAR to the team in 2019.

Are they trading Eaton and MAT. They will still be paid even if on the bench.

[Natsinpwc]

Kind of ignoring what to do with Rendon and issues in 2020 and beyond. Either he is going to cost much more tha 18 million or he is gone and need to replace him.

[NJ Ave]

Are they trading Eaton and MAT. They will still be paid even if on the bench.

Eaton will certainly be traded if they re-sign Bryce. MAT, I have no idea but I think he'll be traded too this offseason regardless of what happens with Bryce. He doesn't come off the bench well and they don't have a full-time slot for him. But even if they keep him, MAT's ~$4 million 2019 salary doesn't really make or break the cap for us.

[NJ Ave]

Kind of ignoring what to do with Rendon and issues in 2020 and beyond. Either he is going to cost much more tha 18 million or he is gone and need to replace him.

Rendon will not get that much more - just look at the list of AAV for 3rd basemen. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/3rd-base/

And whatever we can resign Rendon for will be a savings over Rendon + Zimmerman in 2019.

My guess for Rendon is no more than 5/$115 or something like that.

[Minty Fresh]

What about just put Harper behind the dish and be done with it?  All our problems solved.

[Natsinpwc]

Rendon will not get that much more - just look at the list of AAV for 3rd basemen. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/3rd-base/

And whatever we can resign Rendon for will be a savings over Rendon + Zimmerman in 2019.

My guess for Rendon is no more than 5/$115 or something like that.

This years prices will help drive up next years. Someone else will go beyond that to get a high quality 3B.

[Slateman]

No, I'm wondering why you think it's possible, for a team facing salary constraints, to improve their situation by trading away cheap 3-4 win players?

Eaton would have to go because otherwise it's too many OF.

And Harper's $30 million 2019 salary is just replacing the salaries of Harper and Wieters in 2018. Here's the breakdown from last offseason. I think this is still close. http://www.talknats.com/2017/12/30/the-washington-nationals-salary-projections-and-bryce-harper/

2019 Tax Basis, assuming Eaton trade
Scherzer: $28.69
Strasburg: $25
Zimmerman: $16.67
Rendon: $18
Roark: $12
Doolittle: $6
Taylor: $6
Kendrick: $4
Turner: $3
Ross: $2
Solis: $2
Barraclough: $2

Total: $125.36 million

So despite your repeated declarations that the Nationals have no money to spend, I just don't see it. They can sign Bryce and take care of the rest of the minimum contracts and be at $165 million or so, with a cap of $206 next season.

125 million + Harper's 30 million = 155 million. So you're already stressing the payroll, and the Nationals still need at least one more top quality reliever (who can close when Doolittle goes to the DL), a front rotation starter (who can take over when Strasburg goes to the DL), another starter to replace Roark and/or Ross, a starting catcher, and probably someone to start at second base.

Per Janes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/12/how-much-money-will-nationals-have-spend-this-winter/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3a3475551450), "Asked whether the Nationals would put all of the money they saved with the departure of free agents back into the roster next season, Rizzo said only that the Lerner family has always provided him with plenty of resources to build a strong roster. But the consensus internally is not only that the Nationals do not want to eclipse the competitive balance tax threshold for a third straight season, but they do not want to come close."

So there isn't nearly as much money as as everyone wants to think there is. There certainly isn't enough to get the pieces you need to win 95+ games in this division and keep Harper. 

Also, read the rest of Janes' article. While Scherzer and Strasburg are only counting 25 and 28 million against the luxury tax, they are both going to be paid 35 million each. This will give the Lerner's additional pause, as they haven't exactly been pleased with the results of expanded payroll so far.

[Slateman]

And Eaton should be able to bring you back something of pretty significant value.

I don't know why anyone thinks this. He's a worse version of what was traded for two seasons ago. He may not be an elite defender in RF anymore due to injury. You're not going to get what you think from that guy.

[imref]

I don't know why anyone thinks this. He's a worse version of what was traded for two seasons ago. He may not be an elite defender in RF anymore due to injury. You're not going to get what you think from that guy.

agreed, maybe you get a decent middle reliever.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

agreed, maybe you get a decent middle reliever.

We gave up 2 of the top 10 RH pitching prospects in baseball and a 1st round pcik from the previous summer for Eaton.  His value hasn't now dwindled to "decent middle reliever."

[Natsinpwc]

125 million + Harper's 30 million = 155 million. So you're already stressing the payroll, and the Nationals still need at least one more top quality reliever (who can close when Doolittle goes to the DL), a front rotation starter (who can take over when Strasburg goes to the DL), another starter to replace Roark and/or Ross, a starting catcher, and probably someone to start at second base.

Per Janes (https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/12/how-much-money-will-nationals-have-spend-this-winter/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3a3475551450), "Asked whether the Nationals would put all of the money they saved with the departure of free agents back into the roster next season, Rizzo said only that the Lerner family has always provided him with plenty of resources to build a strong roster. But the consensus internally is not only that the Nationals do not want to eclipse the competitive balance tax threshold for a third straight season, but they do not want to come close."

So there isn't nearly as much money as as everyone wants to think there is. There certainly isn't enough to get the pieces you need to win 95+ games in this division and keep Harper. 

Also, read the rest of Janes' article. While Scherzer and Strasburg are only counting 25 and 28 million against the luxury tax, they are both going to be paid 35 million each. This will give the Lerner's additional pause, as they haven't exactly been pleased with the results of expanded payroll so far.

Also they kind of need a catcher and second baseman. Kendrick is not an everyday second baseman even before the major injury. And no one wants to roll with Roark as the number three and Ross as the number four.

Harper will get more than 30 million.

[NJ Ave]

125 million + Harper's 30 million = 155 million.

This is the only fact in your post. The rest is speculation. Another couple of facts are that the tax threshold is $206 million for next season, and the difference between $155 and $206 is $51 million, which is plenty of money to address the roster while staying under the tax.

Your point is disingenuous. The Lerners may decide to cut payroll and retool, and they may decide to sign Harper, but they won't decide to do BOTH. If they sign Harper, that means they will use the $51 million left over to address the other holes. If they don't sign Harper, I agree they will probably give Rizzo a budget far under the tax.

Frankly, I don't care either way. I'm just pointing out the extreme unlikeliness that they decide to sign Bryce for $300 million and then sit on $51 million in cap space so they can be third favorites in the division with one of the top three paid players in baseball.

As far as Eaton, I didn't mean "significant" as in "a brand new bullpen". I meant something that will help the team. He's still worth more than an A-ball prospect.