Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[Baseball is Life]

Until proven otherwise, assume it's all about the money.

Because it's always all about the money.

Stras didn't go for the money. Yet another reason he's my favorite Nat of all time.

[GburgNatsFan]

Stras can become a free agent or renegotiate his contract after the 2019 and the 2020 seasons. What he got from the team is a guarantee that he'll be paid through 2023 or something, whether he blows out his elbow again or not.

Stras didn't go for the money. Yet another reason he's my favorite Nat of all time.

[mdnatsfan]

I say let him go. Trade him. Mike Trout isn't getting the Angels any closer to a WS. Why do we think Harper puts us over the top?

This team needs better hitters all round.

[imref]

Zuck notes only Zimmerman, Gio, and Strasburg have been on the roster longer than Harper.

[Slateman]

Bryce says he won't talk about 2019

[UMDNats]

Bryce says he won't talk about 2019

someone should ask him where he sees himself in 2021 to get around that

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Probably gone after this year.  He's not getting traded unless the Nats are somehow out of playoff contention (unlikely, we would like to think).  He's not getting extended, either, so he'll walk and go to some other team in 2019.

Nice run while it lasted, but it's time to get used to the idea of a future outfield of Taylor/Eaton/Robles/Goodwin.

To play devil's advocate: can anyone point to a year where Bryce Harper was the difference between us making the playoffs or not, or advancing in the playoffs or not?

To cut to the chase - you cannot because it hasn't happened. His best year (by far) was a year we didn't make the playoffs. In the years we have made the playoffs we still would have won the division with an average player in his place. We've never advanced in the playoffs, despite (in some cases, partially because of) his performance.

So I think the reality is the Nationals should look to trade him if they don't think they can sign him long-term. They'll likely get back a nice haul of prospects, and will still be among the widest favorites to win their division in MLB, even without him. Maybe that won't happen for any number of reasons, but that's probably the smart move.

Not Bryce's fault the rest of the lineup didn't show up in 2014.

[nfotiu]

I think at this point, the biggest thing working against an extension is the difficulty in figuring out what his market value is.  The Lerners are probably seeing lots of signs are pointing to a correction in salaries including the very soft free agency market this off season.  Boras probably believes that some of that is due to teams saving up to make runs on Harper and Machado next year.  They are both probably at least a little bit right, and that uncertainty makes any kind of negotiations difficult. 

It's going to be sad to see him go, he got a lot people in this area excited about the Nats and baseball.  I do think there is at least a small chance he signs here after hitting free agency when he sees the money he is looking for isn't really out there.

[Dave301]

[imref]

Martinez has been about a 2 WAR player the last 3 years. so if a WAR is going for about $11 million now.  That puts Harper's value at around $40 million a year.  With JDM getting 5/$110 and an opt-out after 2, I'm guessing Boras starts the bidding at 7/$245 million for Harper with an opt-out after 3 or 4. 

[Greg_SRT]

Martinez has been about a 2 WAR player the last 3 years. so if a WAR is going for about $11 million now.  That puts Harper's value at around $40 million a year.  With JDM getting 5/$110 and an opt-out after 2, I'm guessing Boras starts the bidding at 7/$245 million for Harper with an opt-out after 3 or 4.

I don’t think Harper signs an extension for less than 35 million a year. If he hits free agency, I don’t think they entertain anything lower than that.

[nfotiu]

The way this off season has gone, and given the comments from Boras, it seems like Boras will be treating Harper's deal as a significant opportunity to try to make a statement and try to the push the market higher.   

I'm still kind of surprised that Harper is going to take such a big risk by going into this season without a contract.  If he steps on another slippery base, he'll be flushing 250 million dollars down the toilet.

[Count Walewski]

I really do think he cares about money more than he cares about wearing the same uniform as Mickey Mantle, playing close to his family, or playing with Kris Bryant. Everything he and Boras has said indicates that there will be no discount given to the Nats, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, or whoever else he is rumored to be interested in.

[bluestreak]

I really do think he cares about money more than he cares about wearing the same uniform as Mickey Mantle, playing close to his family, or playing with Kris Bryant. Everything he and Boras has said indicates that there will be no discount given to the Nats, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, or whoever else he is rumored to be interested in.

Is this based on anything of than pure speculation. I have zero idea what motivates Bryce Harper. I do know what motivates Scott Boras, though.

[imref]

some more from Nightengale - https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2018/02/19/bryce-harper-free-agency/351232002/

He notes that Rizzo says there is no deadline for getting a deal done, they are open to working on it throughout the next 8 months.

[NJ Ave]

Martinez has been about a 2 WAR player the last 3 years. so if a WAR is going for about $11 million now.  That puts Harper's value at around $40 million a year.  With JDM getting 5/$110 and an opt-out after 2, I'm guessing Boras starts the bidding at 7/$245 million for Harper with an opt-out after 3 or 4. 

2014: 4.0
2015: 5.0
2016: 1.8
2017: 3.8

I wouldn't exactly say "2 WAR player the last 3 years" is accurate.

[Trea Burner]

After the annual tradition of getting eliminated in the divisional series yet again, Bryce’s frustrations will take over.

Should have thought about this when they were making all those half ass attempts to compete for a WS. They got a false sense of security playing in a weak division.

He is gone. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs. Phillies a darkhorse.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Martinez has been about a 2 WAR player the last 3 years. so if a WAR is going for about $11 million now.  That puts Harper's value at around $40 million a year.  With JDM getting 5/$110 and an opt-out after 2, I'm guessing Boras starts the bidding at 7/$245 million for Harper with an opt-out after 3 or 4. 

depends on whose WAR you are talking about.  fWAR had him 5 / 1.8 / 3.8, or 4 - 5 WAR when healthy.  If you project him at 3.5 WAR as a DH (which gives a big hit for positional adjustment), that is closer to $7MM a win.  To get Byrce to $40MM, you have to figure he's a 6 WAR player.  That's not unreasonable in the early years.  If you want to be "reasonable," 10 years, $325 MM, front loaded with about $40MM a year for the first 5, then a couple of opt out.  My guess is, if he's healthy at all, that's a 5 year contract that only hits you in the luxury tax at $32.5 MM.  Maybe you do a little more if Bryce agrees to defer $10MM a year until after Scherzer's deferrals.

[bluestreak]

After the annual tradition of getting eliminated in the divisional series yet again, Bryce’s frustrations will take over.

Should have thought about this when they were making all those half ass attempts to compete for a WS. They got a false sense of security playing in a weak division.

He is gone. Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs. Phillies a darkhorse.

Man, you guys kill me....

[imref]

2014: 4.0
2015: 5.0
2016: 1.8
2017: 3.8

I wouldn't exactly say "2 WAR player the last 3 years" is accurate.

My bad, I didn't realize the split on baseball reference for the two teams in 2017 (1.6 for Detroit, 2.6 for Arizona).

[Trea Burner]

Man, you guys kill me....

Which kills you more...the years they went in with a joke bullpen, the years they had lack of professional hitting lineup that embarrassed themselves with record Whiff rates or both? 

[Ray D]

He needs to cut down on his "ummmmm"s.

[dcpatti]

In a departure from his usual tone, Boz wrote an article about the Nats handling of Harper that is almost a love letter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/whether-bryce-harper-stays-or-goes-the-nationals-have-played-this-just-right/2018/02/20/fc2f6e50-166a-11e8-b681-2d4d462a1921_story.html

[Greg_SRT]

Harper, like most athletes and celebrities, have an ego. It just depends on what you think his ego needs. To me Harper has always found importance in impact. Signing a contract worth most money ever can do that. However signing a long term extension, staying with a team, not going to free agency does that as well. The impact of him signing an extension just before the All Star game would be huge.

Individuals like that seem to want to set the market. But biggest contract ever is only one way to do that. Harper could also set the standard that elite players aren’t journey men.

It all depends on what kind of ego he really has.

[GburgNatsFan]

In a departure from his usual tone, Boz wrote an article about the Nats handling of Harper that is almost a love letter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/whether-bryce-harper-stays-or-goes-the-nationals-have-played-this-just-right/2018/02/20/fc2f6e50-166a-11e8-b681-2d4d462a1921_story.html

Well, with all the  cynical machinations in Ashburn, it was time for a contrast piece.