Bryce Harper 2018 and beyond

[Gil1957]

Just throwing this out for discussion purposes.   With Taylor seeming to have matured into a very good ML ball player and Victor Robles coming up, do the Nats offer Bryce Harper an extension along the lines of Stanton and if he turns it down, look to trade him for prospects, especially if the Yankees get knocked out by the Astros, who are packed with prospects or do you gamble one more year and hope you can afford to sign him after 2018?   It would be awful to let him just walk away and get nothing in return....I am in favor of offering the extension and if it is rebuffed, feeling out offers for him.

[rbw5t]

Seems sensible, but I think there's no way he actually gets traded.  (We may well broach the topic of an extension, although I doubt that conversation goes anywhere either.)  We expect to contend, so I think we want him in the lineup for his final year.  Since he'd be at most a 1-yr rental for someone else, we wouldn't really get a great haul of prospects.  You might get more with a desperate buyer at the trade deadline, but it's (knock on wood) unlikely that we're out of the NL East race by the 7/31 trade deadline, and you can't justify trading Bryce away when you expect to be playing in the postseason! 

[Natsinpwc]

http://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/bryce-harper-flirting-chicago-cubs-kris-bryant-boras-blackhawks-bulls-vegas-wrigley-mlb

[imref]

we're going to extend him.  Probably 4 years with player options in years 5-6-7 ala the Strasburg deal. $25-30m a year.

[NJ Ave]

To play devil's advocate: can anyone point to a year where Bryce Harper was the difference between us making the playoffs or not, or advancing in the playoffs or not?

To cut to the chase - you cannot because it hasn't happened. His best year (by far) was a year we didn't make the playoffs. In the years we have made the playoffs we still would have won the division with an average player in his place. We've never advanced in the playoffs, despite (in some cases, partially because of) his performance.

So I think the reality is the Nationals should look to trade him if they don't think they can sign him long-term. They'll likely get back a nice haul of prospects, and will still be among the widest favorites to win their division in MLB, even without him. Maybe that won't happen for any number of reasons, but that's probably the smart move.

[imref]

To play devil's advocate: can anyone point to a year where Bryce Harper was the difference between us making the playoffs or not, or advancing in the playoffs or not?

To cut to the chase - you cannot because it hasn't happened. His best year (by far) was a year we didn't make the playoffs. In the years we have made the playoffs we still would have won the division with an average player in his place. We've never advanced in the playoffs, despite (in some cases, partially because of) his performance.

So I think the reality is the Nationals should look to trade him if they don't think they can sign him long-term. They'll likely get back a nice haul of prospects, and will still be among the widest favorites to win their division in MLB, even without him. Maybe that won't happen for any number of reasons, but that's probably the smart move.

probably the smart baseball move, not the smart marketing move.

[GburgNatsFan]

I'm sure Rizzo has plan A, B, and C all laid out.

Just throwing this out for discussion purposes.   With Taylor seeming to have matured into a very good ML ball player and Victor Robles coming up, do the Nats offer Bryce Harper an extension along the lines of Stanton and if he turns it down, look to trade him for prospects, especially if the Yankees get knocked out by the Astros, who are packed with prospects or do you gamble one more year and hope you can afford to sign him after 2018?   It would be awful to let him just walk away and get nothing in return....I am in favor of offering the extension and if it is rebuffed, feeling out offers for him.

[NJ Ave]

probably the smart baseball move, not the smart marketing move.

If they only have him for one year, then they make as well start marketing the team around Tony, Trea, Stras, and Max. There’s no shortage of stars on the team, even without Bryce. And in my opinion the effect is negligible if selling Bryce in a year you can make the playoffs without him means you makes the playoffs in a future year (or multiple future years) when you otherwise would not have. Sure baseball fans follow stars, but winning CREATES stars.

Just my opinion

[dcpatti]

The Lerners sat at the “family” table with Ma and Pa Harper for Bryce’s wedding.  There were like 400peoole at that wedding and they get the family table.  I don’t think he is going anywhere.

[Dave301]

The Lerners sat at the “family” table with Ma and Pa Harper for Bryce’s wedding.  There were like 400peoole at that wedding and they get the family table.  I don’t think he is going anywhere.

Grant Paulsen‏Verified account @granthpaulsen · 21h21 hours ago 
Kenley Jansen was going to sign with #Nats. They offered him $85M. Justin Turner talked him into staying with #Dodgers at Kenley's wedding.

There ya go. Could be as simple as that.

[slhubic]

quite simply, I cannot ignore the fact that my gut doesn't care (doesn't really want) the baggage or the player.  especially at the money that it would cost to have him, I just can't get over the fact that, for the 'best' player on my favorite team, I just don't feel much at all for him, even when he's at his best; and I surely don't feel he's more than a one-dimensional player, whose bat is going to be streaky.  I still see him making idiotic base-running mistakes, and though a great arm, I never feel comfortable about his defense, either...

[imref]

If they only have him for one year, then they make as well start marketing the team around Tony, Trea, Stras, and Max. There’s no shortage of stars on the team, even without Bryce. And in my opinion the effect is negligible if selling Bryce in a year you can make the playoffs without him means you makes the playoffs in a future year (or multiple future years) when you otherwise would not have. Sure baseball fans follow stars, but winning CREATES stars.

Just my opinion

I respectfully disagree.  Bryce Harper is the biggest star on this team, and one of the biggest stars in baseball, and it's not even close.  Look around the park next spring, i'd bet at least half to 2/3rds of the names on the backs you'll see says "Harper".  He's the guy that puts butts in seats, and moves merchandise.

[Ray D]

It would be awful to let him just walk away and get nothing in return...

If you keep Harper and then he walks, what you got in return is one year of Harper.  If you trade him, you get prospect (or players) the sum total of whose value is one year of Harper.  Business 101.

[tzinc]

he will go to a winner for less money

[PowerBoater69]

If you keep Harper and then he walks, what you got in return is one year of Harper.  If you trade him, you get prospect (or players) the sum total of whose value is one year of Harper.  Business 101.

Harper will make $21.6 million next year. On the FA market there is widespread speculation that he is looking for $40 million per year for ten years, so for a single year contract he is worth in the $45-50 million range. Making his value in trade the huge difference between his contract and market value. For that amount the Nats could get several top prospects with seven years of team control each.

[Optics]

Honestly, I don't think Harper cares that much about raw dollar total. I think he cares more about his legacy and his place in baseball history. I'm not saying he'll sign for peanuts, he'll try to get his, but instead of just offering him a boatload of money I'd sit him down and talk to him about his future in the city and what it would mean to be the guy that brought a World Series championship to Washington, about having a statue in front of Nats Park, about how sweet his sculpture in Cooperstown will look with a Curly W on it, etc. Sell him on being Washington's Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. I think he wants that more than just a half a billion dollars.

[GNatsNoMore]

Honestly, I don't think Harper cares that much about raw dollar total. I think he cares more about his legacy and his place in baseball history. I'm not saying he'll sign for peanuts, he'll try to get his, but instead of just offering him a boatload of money I'd sit him down and talk to him about his future in the city and what it would mean to be the guy that brought a World Series championship to Washington, about having a statue in front of Nats Park, about how sweet his sculpture in Cooperstown will look with a Curly W on it, etc. Sell him on being Washington's Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. I think he wants that more than just a half a billion dollars.

I agree.  (Or maybe Washington's Mickey Mantle. 3+4=7)

[dracnal]

Honestly, I don't think Harper cares that much about raw dollar total. I think he cares more about his legacy and his place in baseball history. I'm not saying he'll sign for peanuts, he'll try to get his, but instead of just offering him a boatload of money I'd sit him down and talk to him about his future in the city and what it would mean to be the guy that brought a World Series championship to Washington, about having a statue in front of Nats Park, about how sweet his sculpture in Cooperstown will look with a Curly W on it, etc. Sell him on being Washington's Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. I think he wants that more than just a half a billion dollars.

Let's not forget in Nats Park he has a chance to be immortalized as a bronze octopus.

[GburgNatsFan]

Until proven otherwise, assume it's all about the money.

Because it's always all about the money.

[nfotiu]

To play devil's advocate: can anyone point to a year where Bryce Harper was the difference between us making the playoffs or not, or advancing in the playoffs or not?

To cut to the chase - you cannot because it hasn't happened. His best year (by far) was a year we didn't make the playoffs. In the years we have made the playoffs we still would have won the division with an average player in his place. We've never advanced in the playoffs, despite (in some cases, partially because of) his performance.

So I think the reality is the Nationals should look to trade him if they don't think they can sign him long-term. They'll likely get back a nice haul of prospects, and will still be among the widest favorites to win their division in MLB, even without him. Maybe that won't happen for any number of reasons, but that's probably the smart move.

Bryce and Max not being fully recovered from injuries and being shells of themselves was probably the biggest reason we lost this year.  Strasburg, Ramos being out and Bryce sucking from Aug/Sept through Oct probably cost us last year.  A healthy, mid-season form, Bryce Harper would be invaluable in the post season.  We saw that once, but he didn't have the supporting cast that year.   

I don't know what was going on with Harper last year, but this year was just a freak thing.   I think theories of players being injury prone in general are often overblown, especially when they are all unrelated things.  But, I guess that would be the biggest risk of signing Harper long term. 

How much is one year of Bryce worth in a trade anyway?  I'd guess not as much as many people here would guess.  Is he actually worth more for a full year than a deadline rental?   

I agree with the above comments that he's a huge star.  Ask 12 kids on any of my son's past few little league teams in Richmond who their favorite player is and at least 9 of them will say Bryce Harper.   Bryce Harper at bats late in a tight game are about as excited as Nats Park gets.

I bet they end up going with something like the player option contract mentioned above.  I bet it is more like 2-3 extra years before the player option kicks in though.  Bryce has got to realize he is risking a lot of dough by not signing anything this summer either.  If he goes and tears his ACL in the summer, then he's left signing a one year deal needing to prove himself.  I have to think the Nats would at least put 250-300 million with player options on the table.

[UMDNats]

So I think the reality is the Nationals should look to trade him if they don't think they can sign him long-term. They'll likely get back a nice haul of prospects, and will still be among the widest favorites to win their division in MLB, even without him. Maybe that won't happen for any number of reasons, but that's probably the smart move.

We will never, ever get decent value from trading Harper. We can't trade him for PR reasons and we can't trade him because no one will give us what he's worth for 1 year of play.

[rbw5t]

Honestly, I don't think Harper cares that much about raw dollar total. I think he cares more about his legacy and his place in baseball history. I'm not saying he'll sign for peanuts, he'll try to get his, but instead of just offering him a boatload of money I'd sit him down and talk to him about his future in the city and what it would mean to be the guy that brought a World Series championship to Washington, about having a statue in front of Nats Park, about how sweet his sculpture in Cooperstown will look with a Curly W on it, etc. Sell him on being Washington's Babe Ruth or Ted Williams. I think he wants that more than just a half a billion dollars.

I actually agree he has a sense of history and wants to be one of those guys associated with a team in a special way, and he probably understands his best chance is to do it here.  But, I also think that he, like many others, probably sees pay as a point of pride.  I think he might not care much about $550M vs $450M in terms needed every cent, but I think to sign him you have to offer him the a contract that is the biggest ever, both in terms of total dollars and annual pay, just bc that's how he "wins" free agency.

[GburgNatsFan]

I'm sure I'm too old and pale to appropriate a cultural reference, but...

Dolla dolla dolla bills, y'all.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sell him on being Washington's Babe Ruth or Ted Williams.

Only one of them got a ring.  You can pitch him on being the hero of the town's baseball fans, but championships don't just go to the long suffering and most deserving. 

[Ray D]

Only one of them got a ring.   

So switch Joe D. or Mantle for Williams.