2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread

[bluestreak]

I think the concern is that his velocity has been down over the past two years.

[varoadking]

10.2 IP, 1.35 ERA in last year's playoffs. 13Ks, 10BBs (that walk rate is obviously concerning)

last two months of 2017:  47IP, 2.27 ERA / 47Ks / 15 BBs

I'd take that.

Pfft...old school metrics...

[varoadking]

I think the concern is that his velocity has been down over the past two years.

We have a winner... 

[Mattionals]

We have a winner... 

Yea, it's definitely concerning that he lost 2 MPH of his fastball since 2016, and I wonder if he pitched through some issues in 2017 after the WS run in 2016.

[UMDNats]

I'll be stunned if Arrietta gets less than a 5 year deal.

What leverage does he have? If a team really wanted to commit to him long-term they would have by now.

[Mattionals]

What leverage does he have? If a team really wanted to commit to him long-term they would have by now.

I bet he has gotten offers at 4 or 5 years but for something closer to 15 Million a season. The Phillies were rumored to go as high as 3 years and 90 Million, so my guess is that 4 or 5 years at 100-110 Million is about where he ends up. I would offer him the Jordan Zimmermann contract and see if he bites at this point in the offseason.

[UMDNats]

I'm not really willing to commit to him more than 4 years at 70-80 million. To me, he has no leverage. No big-money teams besides us and maybe Philly are interested.

Every small-market team has already spent their cap or is actively tanking. There's no where for him to go. He needs us more than we need him. Give him the Cespedes contract.

[Mattionals]

I'm not really willing to commit to him more than 4 years at 70-80 million. To me, he has no leverage. No big-money teams besides us and maybe Philly are interested.

Every small-market team has already spent their cap or is actively tanking. There's no where for him to go. He needs us more than we need him. Give him the Cespedes contract.

Boras is probably waiting out an injury on another team. Someone on fangraphs in a live chat figured that Boras and the Lerners are doing the dance but Boras is keeping his eyes open in case a big starter goes down with an injury.

[HalfSmokes]

This reminds me of Steven Drew a few years ago- Boras tried to wait out teams on a guy who wasn’t quite good enough for teams to hold back space in their budgets and he ended up with a terrible contract

[UMDNats]

This reminds me of Steven Drew a few years ago- Boras tried to wait out teams on a guy who wasn’t quite good enough for teams to hold back space in their budgets and he ended up with a terrible contract

Right. Arrieta is good but there are enough red flags to concern teams enough to not want to break the bank for him.

I see him either go for a 1-year deal with a contender or a 3-year deal with an opt out.

[Truconfidence]

I'll be stunned if Arrietta gets less than a 5 year deal.

You are gonna be stunned I think.

[varoadking]

You are gonna be stunned I think.

Flabbergasted even... 

[Natsinpwc]

I'd be stunned and flabbergasted if he signs a one year or a five year deal. Sounds like he has 3 year offers on hand. Probably trying to turn one of those into four years.

Arrieta is a year younger than Scherzer who still has four years left on his contact. 

[Ray D]

I'll be stunned if Arrietta gets less than a 5 year deal.

I'll be stunned if he GETS a five year deal.

Seems like ALL of the owners have wised up to how destructive these long-term deals can potentially be.   I say "potentially" because there are exceptions.  Like Scherzer.  But there really is no comparison. I mean seriously, you could sign Arrieta to a five year deal and he could have five straight 4+ ERA seasons. And in fact I think that's more likely than him having five straight sparkling seasons.

[HalfSmokes]

I think owners are willing to pay for elite, but that level below just isn’t worth it

[Truconfidence]

I think owners are willing to pay for elite, but that level below just isn’t worth it

It is this. They because of the luxury tax are not willing to take the chance on deals like the 1 we gave Werth because years 5-7 can be expensive because it can force you into that threshold.

[zimm_da_kid]

Arrieta makes us the best team in baseball this year if people are healthy

[tomterp]

I'll be stunned if he GETS a five year deal.

Seems like ALL of the owners have wised up to how destructive these long-term deals can potentially be.   I say "potentially" because there are exceptions.  Like Scherzer. But there really is no comparison. I mean seriously, you could sign Arrieta to a five year deal and he could have five straight 4+ ERA seasons. And in fact I think that's more likely than him having five straight sparkling seasons.

A little bit premature to call that exception, with 4 years left, isn't it?  Or if his arm falls off tomorrow are you good with what we got out of him already?

[bluestreak]

If you go by wins created he’s already almost outperformed that contract. He’s accounted for 20.6 wins in his three seasons by bWAR.
At $9 million per win, that’s a value of $185.5 million of the $220 million. He only has to produce 4 wins (which would be a significant downtick for him) next year to have already outperformed his contract. The remaining 3 years would be gravy. And that’s not factoring in inflation.

[aBaltoNat]

If you go by wins created he’s already almost outperformed that contract. He’s accounted for 20.6 wins in his three seasons by bWAR.
At $9 million per win, that’s a value of $185.5 million of the $220 million. He only has to produce 4 wins (which would be a significant downtick for him) next year to have already outperformed his contract. The remaining 3 years would be gravy. And that’s not factoring in inflation.

Leave it up to a fellow UMich graduate to give you all that type of analysis.

[aBaltoNat]

Watching a rerun of the Marlins ST game now on MLB Network. Not sure why it just hit me, but no wonder Starlin wants traded after he was traded to Miami....his last name is Castro....in Cuban dominated Miami.

Edit: Jacob Turner throwing heat against den Dekker. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Watching a rerun of the Marlins ST game now on MLB Network. Not sure why it just hit me, but no wonder Starlin wants traded after he was traded to Miami....his last name is Castro....in Cuban dominated Miami.

realmuto is changing his first name to "Che" to force a trade.

[UMDNats]

Lind signed a minor league deal with NYY.

[imref]

De Aza back on a minor league deal

[Natitude2018]

First time poster..question: some pretty respected media types think the Phillies will get Jake and possibly one of Lynn/Cobb. Does anyone on here have any thoughts on our chances of getting Jake? Is there any possibility@ payroll reduction to allow this to occur? Assuming possibility of trade with Marlins is dead? Thx for your time.