Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 52486 times)

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Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #775: December 15, 2017, 03:11:53 PM »
Do people honestly think the Lerners are going to give him 400 million? There is no way

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #776: December 15, 2017, 03:14:23 PM »
I don't know how sports work?  I work on the side with a MLB agent.  I have a pretty damned good idea how they work.  You're arguing for not signing Harper AFTER this season because it means we can have room for JD, Rendon, etc.  Again, how does that make it better to trade him now versus going for it with him in 2018? Because we could acquire a couple of "maybe" prospects?  We aren't acquiring anything sure fire close to ready, either big roll the dice young guys or close to ready to be so-so everyday player guys.

To me it's fairly simple. Keep him this year and make a run then lose him or sign him and lose the chance at signing Rendon and others.

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #777: December 15, 2017, 03:14:37 PM »
JD is 30. It's not like he is ready for the retirement home.

As I said, sign him to play LF  then when Zimmerman's deal is done move him to 1B and Robles to OF.

One year of Harper and then losing him for nothing is something In would not want to happen.

How many years do you think JD wants?  It's going to be at least 6 or 7.  You want another Jayson Werth situation?  That's exactly what this is, except we aren't desparate for somebody to change the franchise image now like we were then.  VERY good chance JD becomes a bad, bad contract halfway into it.

AGAIN, why does signing JD mean you want to trade Harper?  All you've done is, at best, swapped similar players, thus a net ZERO for this year...for the bonus of a couple of lottery ticket prospects?  Why the hell wouldn't you keep Harper and JD in 2018 then make your QO to Harper and take the compensation pick?  You become the odds on favorite to win the 2018 World Series, and you still end up with a lottery ticket in exchange for Harper same as trading him.  Maybe only 1 instead of 2. 

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #778: December 15, 2017, 03:17:29 PM »
To me it's fairly simple. Keep him this year and make a run then lose him or sign him and lose the chance at signing Rendon and others.

What part of keeping him in 2018 and making a run at it with a MVP type player, then letting him walk and signing Rendon after the season don't you understand?  If you don't want to sign Harper long-term, then fine.  Aren't we trying to win a World Series in 2018?  You haven't AT ALL provided a benefit available to us by trading Harper otherwise not available.  The only benefit is a couple of so-so prospects that might turn out.  Your benefit is a couple of so-so prospects instead of what we'd get with a QO offer comp pick AND having Harper help us in 2018.  So glad you aren't GM.

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #779: December 15, 2017, 03:20:59 PM »
Do people honestly think the Lerners are going to give him 400 million? There is no way

What is different about the Lerners willingness to spend than other franchises?  The Yankees made moves to stay under the luxury tax.  The Lerners didn't dictate that.  Who knows if Harper gets 400 mill, but why is anybody else more likely to spend that?  The Cubs, Dodgers, Yankees...they already have plenty of expensive guys.  The Cubs are going to have to pay Bryant and Rizzo in the coming years.  What sets them apart financially?  Werth, Zimmerman, Max, Strasburg...they all got mega deals/extensions. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #780: December 15, 2017, 03:22:01 PM »
As has been repeatedly explained to me, I'm arguing that we should trade Harper for whatever dregs of the farm system someone is willing to offer us.

Man that sounds stupid. I withdraw that.

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #781: December 15, 2017, 03:24:30 PM »
As has been repeatedly explained to me, I'm arguing that we should trade Harper for whatever dregs of the farm system someone is willing to offer us.

Man that sounds stupid. I withdraw that.

Dregs is a huge exaggeration, but you aren't getting a stud prospect that is basically a year or 2 away from the big leagues.  So again, you're saying let's take a SIGNIFICANT wrecking ball to this 2018 contending team in hopes that a couple of prospects turn into decent players in a few years. 

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #782: December 15, 2017, 03:26:43 PM »
As has been repeatedly explained to me, I'm arguing that we should trade Harper for whatever dregs of the farm system someone is willing to offer us.

Man that sounds stupid. I withdraw that.

Why are the Orioles shopping Machado?

You guys seriously think we'd get peanuts for Harper. Good god.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #783: December 15, 2017, 03:30:15 PM »
It obviously depends on the trade, for me. I certainly wouldn't do it for A-ball lottery tickets. However, while we aren't rebuilding I think it's fair to say that we could be reloading. We have 4 more years of Strasburg/Scherzer/Eaton/Trea/Robles and if re-sign Rendon I'm basically fine with that being the heart of the team. I don't believe that equals 2018 or bust, especially in this terrible division at this point when even 89-90 wins could be a division champ over the next 3-5 years.

Let's put it this way - last year the Brewers won 86 games and missed the playoffs by a game, while the Rockies won 87 games and made the playoffs by a game. The Brewers offense + pitching was worth 34.6 WAR and the Rockies offense + pitching was worth 31.9 WAR.

So if you assume that those 6 guys above should average 4 WAR apiece, that's 24 WAR, which is like 2-3 more WAR than the entire Orioles team had last year when they finished with 75 wins. So it's not an impossible situation or anything to add 12-15 more wins from the other 19 players on the roster over the next few years, although it's a lot less likely we're going to have 98-win seasons and a lot more likely we'll have 88-90 win seasons instead.

Now could those guys crater and not average 4 wins apiece? Of course. It's also possible Juan Soto ends up being the best player out of all of them. My point is simply that Bryce Harper isn't the end of the talent on this team, and if the right trade comes along - say a near-MLB ready 1B with a lot of pop :pray: - I don't think you turn it down just because 2018 is the last year we can possibly win. It's definitely not.

how much longer can you count on a terrible division? Likely another year, but eventually prospects mature and both the Phillies and Braves have strong farms

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #784: December 15, 2017, 03:30:25 PM »
Why are the Orioles shopping Machado?

You guys seriously think we'd get peanuts for Harper. Good god.
What have the Orioles gotten for Machado? Does the fact that they didn't make a trade yet tell you anything. They are also in a different position as a team. They have very little chance of catching the Yanks or Sox or other teams that might get a wild card. They need to rebuild. Nats are not in that position.

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #785: December 15, 2017, 03:30:53 PM »
Why are the Orioles shopping Machado?

You guys seriously think we'd get peanuts for Harper. Good god.

The Orioles don't have a chance this year with Machado.  NONE.  So they might as well take what they can get and save the money he'd cost this year.  WE ARE a contender.  You don't see the difference? 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #786: December 15, 2017, 03:32:05 PM »
Why are the Orioles shopping Machado?

because they're punting his remaining year under contract, something that isn't the case with harper

Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #787: December 15, 2017, 03:32:56 PM »
how much longer can you count on a terrible division? Likely another year, but eventually prospects mature and both the Phillies and Braves have strong farms

The Phillies are very close to be good and the Braves not far behind like you said.  The Phillies sort of remind me of the Cubs a few years back, and are a few free agent signings filling in holes away (they added Carlos Santana today).  Even the Mets, if they can get their pitching staff healthy, are a threat to make some moves and become much, much better.  Last year was as easy as it will get.  The Phils may still be another year off and the Braves another year or 2, but they are coming. 

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #788: December 15, 2017, 03:36:05 PM »
how much longer can you count on a terrible division? Likely another year, but eventually prospects mature and both the Phillies and Braves have strong farms
May I remind you that we were 10-9 against the Braves

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #789: December 15, 2017, 04:42:51 PM »
The Nats went 26-15 when he was out in August and September, a .634 winning percentage.

The rest of the season they had a .587 winning percentage.

Instead of using winning percentage, which is affected by the fact that the Nats had run away with the division, had to play against September Call ups and had also is affected by pitching, we should look at how the Nationals did offensively:

Pre August 12: .275/.390/.472  wRC+ 108 5.34 Runs per game
Post August 12: .243/.313/.394 wRC+ 82  4.32 Runs per game

By all offensive metrics the Nats offense was significantly worse after Harper got injured. And he didn't have enough at bats to get back into the swing. There is no way that this team is better with Bryce Harper. That assessment has no basis in reality.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #790: December 15, 2017, 04:50:00 PM »
Instead of using winning percentage, which is affected by the fact that the Nats had run away with the division, had to play against September Call ups and had also is affected by pitching, we should look at how the Nationals did offensively:

Pre August 12: .275/.390/.472  wRC+ 108 5.34 Runs per game
Post August 12: .243/.313/.394 wRC+ 82  4.32 Runs per game

By all offensive metrics the Nats offense was significantly worse after Harper got injured. And he didn't have enough at bats to get back into the swing. There is no way that this team is better with Bryce Harper. That assessment has no basis in reality.
Isn't that misleading because they had other injuries and also were resting players the last few weeks. Obviously he makes a difference in the long haul.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #791: December 15, 2017, 04:53:06 PM »
Isn't that misleading because they had other injuries and also were resting players the last few weeks. Obviously he makes a difference in the long haul.

I can try to look at specific guys when I have time this weekend, but if I think about it, September was probably the healthiest the team had been all year outside of Harper.

Offline Ray D

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #792: December 15, 2017, 05:27:43 PM »
I don't think you know how sports work.

Uncalled for.

Online dcpatti

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #793: December 15, 2017, 05:29:04 PM »
Lobaton is now a Met, on a minor league deal with a spring training invite.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #794: December 15, 2017, 05:45:34 PM »
I can try to look at specific guys when I have time this weekend, but if I think about it, September was probably the healthiest the team had been all year outside of Harper.
The last two weeks Dusty was resting several regulars each game.

Online varoadking

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #795: December 15, 2017, 07:35:45 PM »
Lobaton is now a Met, on a minor league deal with a spring training invite.

Seems like an appropriate deal for him...

Offline sph274

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #796: December 15, 2017, 07:55:09 PM »
JD Martinez is a terrible fielder that just had a career year. He is a DH, and not worth anything close to 200 million a year. People convincing themselves that JD at 7 years 200 million plus is a better deal than harper at 10/400 are crazy. Bryce was a more valuable player than JD was last year, in JD's career year. Harper's career year was worth double the WAR of JD's career year. IF we trade Harper we trade him to a team that we will be directly competing against, and we will get worse. It makes no sense.

JD Martinez is a DH and would be a terrible fit for the Nats. Christ, get bullpen help, sign Wade Davis or something

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #797: December 15, 2017, 10:03:24 PM »
JD Martinez is a terrible fielder that just had a career year. He is a DH, and not worth anything close to 200 million a year. People convincing themselves that JD at 7 years 200 million plus is a better deal than harper at 10/400 are crazy. Bryce was a more valuable player than JD was last year, in JD's career year. Harper's career year was worth double the WAR of JD's career year. IF we trade Harper we trade him to a team that we will be directly competing against, and we will get worse. It makes no sense.

JD Martinez is a DH and would be a terrible fit for the Nats. Christ, get bullpen help, sign Wade Davis or something

Agreed. That’s why they are called career years.  You only get one of them. Martinez was worth 4.2 WAR last year. Harper was worth 4.7 and missed a quarter of the season. I fully expect that Harper will be playing higher level if not All-Star caliber baseball 7 years from now. There is no way Martinez is producing at that level in seven years, especially if he is in the NL. I really do not understand the fascination this forum has with the idea of a serious contender (Vegas’ 4th choice to win the WS) trading away one of the best players in base.

Online imref

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #798: December 16, 2017, 10:31:11 AM »
Crasnick says Albers has a two year deal from an unknown team.

Online varoadking

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #799: December 16, 2017, 10:35:32 AM »
Crasnick says Albers has a two year deal from an unknown team.

Bummer...  :(