Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 55228 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #750: December 15, 2017, 02:18:27 PM »
How do you argue losing a MVP-caliber bat doesn't hurt our chances?  Because we didn't win with him?  Well, we certainly aren't positioned as well to make the playoffs without him all year, let alone win in the postseason.  These are just butthurt takes over the TEAM not coming through in past years.  Why don't we just trade everybody?  We haven't won a postseason series with Max, Stras, Murphy, Rendon, Zimmerman...any of them either. 

I didn't say trade him, I'm just not sold on keeping him without knowing what trade is available.

Before the 2017 season, Fangraphs ranked Aaron Judge the 61st overall prospect, then he hit 52 HRs. I realize that's a huge outlier, but you don't need to make the trade if no one offers what you want. I don't think it's crazy to think that someone might offer a really good prospect or two for Bryce.

I'm also not arguing that it doesn't hurt our chances. I'm arguing that (a) we'll be huge favorites in the division with or without him, and (b) people overrate our chances to win the World Series in general, and (c) people overrate what losing Bryce does to those chances. We might be have a 10% chance with him, and a 9% chance without him. I'd be willing to hurt our 2018 chances that much if it helped us in the long-run.

Of course, my preference is to sign him :)

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #751: December 15, 2017, 02:19:21 PM »
Rendon has had an injury history and has two more years until free Agency. If the Nats made him a good offer he might consider taking it.
Boras client So I doubt it. I think the only reason Strasburg extended was because his wife liked the area and saw it as a great place to raise kids.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #752: December 15, 2017, 02:20:35 PM »
Rendon will test the market also. Why do you think he will sign an extension?

It's not like the Nats don't sign anybody. I think that Rendon re-signing would have a lot to do with the development of Turner, Robles, Soto and the health of Max and Stras. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to sign him for the 2020s if those guys fail to develop/stay healthy.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #753: December 15, 2017, 02:25:13 PM »
I didn't say trade him, I'm just not sold on keeping him without knowing what trade is available.

Before the 2017 season, Fangraphs ranked Aaron Judge the 61st overall prospect, then he hit 52 HRs. I realize that's a huge outlier, but you don't need to make the trade if no one offers what you want. I don't think it's crazy to think that someone might offer a really good prospect or two for Bryce.

I'm also not arguing that it doesn't hurt our chances. I'm arguing that (a) we'll be huge favorites in the division with or without him, and (b) people overrate our chances to win the World Series in general, and (c) people overrate what losing Bryce does to those chances. We might be have a 10% chance with him, and a 9% chance without him. I'd be willing to hurt our 2018 chances that much if it helped us in the long-run.

Of course, my preference is to sign him :)

I think we could get a few decently rated prospects for Harper.  I got into a long debate about that hypothetical situation weeks back.  But I'm not willing to significantly reduce our chances at winning this year, while also basically elimnating any chance of signing Harper next winter, just for a few lottery tickets for the next Aaron Judge.  Is the prospect haul going to be siginificantly better than the draft pick compensation pick we'd get giving Harper a QO?   

Yes, we could win the NL East without Harper.  The Phils are improved, but we'd still be favorites.  So what?  The Yankees didn't trade for Stanton to win the AL East.  They traded for him to help their chances of winning a World Series.  We are a top contender for the World Series, regardless of the eye rolling of the butthurt over our past disappointments.  Harper helps our chances significantly to win the 11 postseason games we'd need to win.  Just like Murphy does, Rendon does, Max does, etc.  Sure you can point to past years where any one of our key players wasn't great in the 4 or 5 game postseason sample and we lost.  That doesn't mean you don't want as many great players as possible.  You don't need them all to have a great series, but the more of them you have, the more likely enough of them do well to carry you to victory.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #754: December 15, 2017, 02:26:00 PM »
Boras client So I doubt it. I think the only reason Strasburg extended was because his wife liked the area and saw it as a great place to raise kids.

Harper is on record saying he prefers DC to NYC specifically.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #755: December 15, 2017, 02:26:18 PM »
Certainly could be untrue, by the way. Even anecdotally, you're talking about a guy who we've never won a playoff series with, in whose best year we actually missed the playoffs. So there's no real evidence that Bryce drives us winning in the playoffs. And if there ever was a year where a team should shed a few current year wins for future year wins, because it has a really good chance of making the playoffs no matter what, that team is the 2018 Nationals in that historically bad division.

This is absurd. There is no way that you replace Harper’s production and there is no scenario in which trading him improves the team. None. No team is going to send back anything that approximates his value, because they will want to win this season.

The Nats were not a good team without Harper, Offesnive production took a major hit while he was out and he likely wasn’t up to full speed in the playoffs. And if you want to trade Harper because the Nats haven’t advanced in the playoffs, then you may as well trade everyone.

I basicallly love how everyone wants the Nats to behave as if they are in rebuild because they’re feelings are hurt that Bryce might reject them.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #756: December 15, 2017, 02:29:38 PM »
This is absurd. There is no way that you replace Harper’s production and there is no scenario in which trading him improves the team. None. No team is going to send back anything that approximates his value, because they will want to win this season.

The Nats were not a good team without Harper, Offesnive production took a major hit while he was out and he likely wasn’t up to full speed in the playoffs. And if you want to trade Harper because the Nats haven’t advanced in the playoffs, then you may as well trade everyone.

I basicallly love how everyone wants the Nats to behave as if they are in rebuild because they’re feelings are hurt that Bryce might reject them.

You have echoed all of my points.  It must be because I always liked Michigan as my 2nd favorite team growing up.  I fell in love with the football helmets and Fab 5 when I was little. 

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #757: December 15, 2017, 02:32:50 PM »
Harper is on record saying he prefers DC to NYC specifically.
Cubs or Dodgers. I think the Nats will have a chance if they want to pay. Angels with his buddy Trout. Or Phillies in a reverse Werth move.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #758: December 15, 2017, 02:37:38 PM »
Cubs or Dodgers. I think the Nats will have a chance if they want to pay. Angels with his buddy Trout. Or Phillies in a reverse Werth move.

Well his quote was about not liking the hectnicness/size of NYC and that he liked DC being more laid back.  Seems that would also very much apply to LA and Chicago.  Of course him saying that in passing doesn't mean too terribly much, but I just don't get why everybody assumes he's a lock to leave.  There is nothing on the surface as far as his quotes/actions that make you feel like any other team has a big lep up.  It's all just one big guess into what goes through his mind.  It's hard to even read much into anything Rizzo or Boras say, because you don't know what they're angling for. 

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #759: December 15, 2017, 02:41:21 PM »
Is the prospect haul going to be siginificantly better than the draft pick compensation pick we'd get giving Harper a QO?

It will help the team significantly sooner, if that matters. I don't know that it's significantly better or worse, but you can choose players that will help the team as soon as 2019 instead of 2023.

Harper helps our chances significantly to win the 11 postseason games we'd need to win.

Yeah, I just disagree with this fundamentally. Once you get into the playoffs I don't think a single player significantly helps or hurts your chances (maybe an ace pitcher, but certainly not a hitter). Jose Altuve OPSd .670 in the World Series, George Springer twice that. I think any team that makes the playoffs probably has talented enough players to get hot.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #760: December 15, 2017, 02:44:05 PM »
This is absurd. There is no way that you replace Harper’s production and there is no scenario in which trading him improves the team. None. No team is going to send back anything that approximates his value, because they will want to win this season.

The Nats were not a good team without Harper, Offesnive production took a major hit while he was out and he likely wasn’t up to full speed in the playoffs. And if you want to trade Harper because the Nats haven’t advanced in the playoffs, then you may as well trade everyone.

I basicallly love how everyone wants the Nats to behave as if they are in rebuild because they’re feelings are hurt that Bryce might reject them.

Grumble grumble, declarative statement with no evidence, grumble grumble, ad hominem attack.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #761: December 15, 2017, 02:48:06 PM »
It will help the team significantly sooner, if that matters. I don't know that it's significantly better or worse, but you can choose players that will help the team as soon as 2019 instead of 2023.

Yeah, I just disagree with this fundamentally. Once you get into the playoffs I don't think a single player significantly helps or hurts your chances (maybe an ace pitcher, but certainly not a hitter). Jose Altuve OPSd .670 in the World Series, George Springer twice that. I think any team that makes the playoffs probably has talented enough players to get hot.

Again, like I said, you can point to a star player having a mediocre postseason in a small sample size.  But, the Astros have multiple weapons.  Like I already said, the more stars you have, the better your chances of enough of them producing to carry you to victory.  It's a numbers game in a small sample.  Why not apply that same logic right down the whole roster?  Why do you single out Harper as the guy that is so expendable?  Get rid of Harper, then there's more pressure on the other guys to produce.  We couldn't afford a Rendon or Murphy slump in the postseason.  A guy like Harper, healthy, can carry your offense when others struggle like we saw against the Giants. 

As for the prospects thing, why are you trading a key part of a team you already assembled to contend for future prospects that may or may not turn into anything?  Even the Orioles, who aren't contenders at all with Machado, aren't going to just dump him unless they get as close to SURE FIRE prospects for him as possible.  You don't just give away 25 year old MVP talents for a couple of "might bes."  It makes no sense at all.  There's a reason Rizzo isn't shopping Harper.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #762: December 15, 2017, 02:52:06 PM »
The Nats were not a good team without Harper, Offesnive production took a major hit while he was out

The Nats went 26-15 when he was out in August and September, a .634 winning percentage.

The rest of the season they had a .587 winning percentage.

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #763: December 15, 2017, 02:55:13 PM »
Wrong.  Yes he wants to contend every year without mortgaging the future.  He's succeeded in having a team capable of competing basically every year since 2012.  Still, how does trading Harper fit into that?  It severely reduces our chances to win this year, and it would be for a few prospects that may or may not help us years down the road.  We aren't going to at all improve for this year, as any team that trades for Harper in his last year of control obviously is trying to win now.  They aren't trading away major pieces from the big leagues and weakening another area.

When has Rizzo traded an important player in their last year under contract for prospects?  He kept Desmond.  He kept Zimmermann.  He's keeping Murphy.   Seriously, even if he hadn't got hurt, nobody would be saying trade Murphy because he won't resign...or will be over the hill when he does anyway.  Why is that?  Because for many reasons people like Murphy and Harper is a lightning rod.   

I have yet to see any scenario where trading Harper makes a lick of sense.  Frankly, some of you are prematurely upset about the certainty (in your eyes) he leaves without winning a title, and you're talking emotionally and not rationally.

Slight problem with your argument.

Combined, Zimmerman, Murphy and Desmond didn't and won't make what Harper is expected to make.

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #764: December 15, 2017, 02:57:59 PM »
This is absurd. There is no way that you replace Harper’s production and there is no scenario in which trading him improves the team. None. No team is going to send back anything that approximates his value, because they will want to win this season.

The Nats were not a good team without Harper, Offesnive production took a major hit while he was out and he likely wasn’t up to full speed in the playoffs. And if you want to trade Harper because the Nats haven’t advanced in the playoffs, then you may as well trade everyone.

I basicallly love how everyone wants the Nats to behave as if they are in rebuild because they’re feelings are hurt that Bryce might reject them.

The last time I checked baseball isn't just played in 2018.

Harper is going to test the market and the Lerners aren't going to get in a bidding war.

We can trade him for some real nice prospects AND sign JD and not lose alot of production IMO.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #765: December 15, 2017, 02:58:20 PM »
The Nats went 26-15 when he was out in August and September, a .634 winning percentage.

The rest of the season they had a .587 winning percentage.

Weren't we mostly playing September callups of our weak NL East foes?  I don't think that proves anything.  How did his replacements do compared to the numbers Harper put up?  Can we find anybody to put out in RF that will hit .319/.416/.562?

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #766: December 15, 2017, 03:00:46 PM »
The Nats went 26-15 when he was out in August and September, a .634 winning percentage.

The rest of the season they had a .587 winning percentage.

So you're saying this team CAN win without him? Weird.

Imagine what that record would be if we had JD Martinez batting 4th. Add at least 4 wins so 30-11. Not too bad.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #767: December 15, 2017, 03:01:12 PM »
The last time I checked baseball isn't just played in 2018.

Harper is going to test the market and the Lerners aren't going to get in a bidding war.

We can trade him for some real nice prospects AND sign JD and not lose alot of production IMO.

Why would the Lerners get into a bidding war for JD Martinez, somebody already 30, but not for a 25 year old Harper?  Why did they get into and win bidding war for Werth and Max in the past, but wouldn't for Harper?

What do we get guaranteed with prospects in return for Harper?  Nothing.  Just a couple hopes and prayers at help down the line.  What do we get keep Harper?  An MVP caliber player on a stacked roster that can win a World Series. 

You guys wanting to trade Harper haven't made any sort of compelling argument whatsoever. 

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #768: December 15, 2017, 03:02:26 PM »
Weren't we mostly playing September callups of our weak NL East foes?  I don't think that proves anything.  How did his replacements do compared to the numbers Harper put up?  Can we find anybody to put out in RF that will hit .319/.416/.562?

JD Martinez.

.303/.376/.690 

Not bad for 200 million less.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #769: December 15, 2017, 03:04:22 PM »
So you're saying this team CAN win without him? Weird.

Imagine what that record would be if we had JD Martinez batting 4th. Add at least 4 wins so 30-11. Not too bad.

The D'Backs were 53-39 when they traded for JD.  They finished 93-69, so 40-30 with him.  Looks like they won plenty without him.  What's your point?  They were still better off having him, as we are with Harper.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #770: December 15, 2017, 03:07:00 PM »
JD Martinez.

.303/.376/.690 

Not bad for 200 million less.

200 million less?  Is JD signing for the same amount of years for 200 million less?  How much less annually is he?  What about the fact he's close to the back end of his prime already and Harper is a few years from the start of his?  Again, your logic is seriously, seriously flawed.  Trading Harper is dumb, dumb, dumb.  If you want to sign JD, then great, but why does that make it smart to trade Harper?  Why not sign JD (which we never will) and keep Harper in 2018?  We'd have the best lineup anybody has seen in a long time.  We'd have a great chance to win a World Series.  I asked this before and you had no answer. 

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #771: December 15, 2017, 03:07:14 PM »
Why would the Lerners get into a bidding war for JD Martinez, somebody already 30, but not for a 25 year old Harper?  Why did they get into and win bidding war for Werth and Max in the past, but wouldn't for Harper?

What do we get guaranteed with prospects in return for Harper?  Nothing.  Just a couple hopes and prayers at help down the line.  What do we get keep Harper?  An MVP caliber player on a stacked roster that can win a World Series. 

You guys wanting to trade Harper haven't made any sort of compelling argument whatsoever.

I don't think you know how sports work.

Very rarely do free agents off this calibre make it to the market without some team over paying. Unless Bryce is willing to take a home team discount with ALOT of deferred money we will not be getting into a bidding war.

As for an argument how does this sound:

-Bryce Harper

OR:

-Two top prospects
-JD Martinez
-An extended Rendon
-A #3 pitcher

All for the price of Harper.

That doesn't sound compelling? Not once in the history of baseball has one single superstar won his team a championship.

This isn't just about 2018. It's about fielding a competitive team for as long as we can. And it's proven that we can win without Harper.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #772: December 15, 2017, 03:09:12 PM »
Pretty pointless to continue a conversation arguing against the central point of baseball orthodoxy that has been disproved and revolutionized the game over the past 20 years - whether one player is irreplaceable in a baseball lineup.

I feel like there was a book about this, Dollarball or something.

I refuse to argue against the strawman that somehow I'm "butthurt" and saying we should trade Bryce regardless of the offer. And yes, I would trade the entire 25-man roster for the right trade offer. Say, the Astros 25-man roster.

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #773: December 15, 2017, 03:10:28 PM »
200 million less?  Is JD signing for the same amount of years for 200 million less?  How much less annually is he?  What about the fact he's close to the back end of his prime already and Harper is a few years from the start of his?  Again, your logic is seriously, seriously flawed.  Trading Harper is dumb, dumb, dumb.  If you want to sign JD, then great, but why does that make it smart to trade Harper?  Why not sign JD (which we never will) and keep Harper in 2018?  We'd have the best lineup anybody has seen in a long time.  We'd have a great chance to win a World Series.  I asked this before and you had no answer.

JD is 30. It's not like he is ready for the retirement home.

As I said, sign him to play LF  then when Zimmerman's deal is done move him to 1B and Robles to OF.

One year of Harper and then losing him for nothing is something In would not want to happen.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #774: December 15, 2017, 03:11:21 PM »
I don't think you know how sports work.

Very rarely do free agents off this calibre make it to the market without some team over paying. Unless Bryce is willing to take a home team discount with ALOT of deferred money we will not be getting into a bidding war.

As for an argument how does this sound:

-Bryce Harper

OR:

-Two top prospects
-JD Martinez
-An extended Rendon
-A #3 pitcher

All for the price of Harper.

That doesn't sound compelling? Not once in the history of baseball has one single superstar won his team a championship.

This isn't just about 2018. It's about fielding a competitive team for as long as we can. And it's proven that we can win without Harper.

I don't know how sports work?  I work on the side with a MLB agent.  I have a pretty damned good idea how they work.  You're arguing for not signing Harper AFTER this season because it means we can have room for JD, Rendon, etc.  Again, how does that make it better to trade him now versus going for it with him in 2018? Because we could acquire a couple of "maybe" prospects?  We aren't acquiring anything sure fire close to ready, either big roll the dice young guys or close to ready to be so-so everyday player guys.