2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread

[Slateman]

Trade Harper for a nice haul of prospects.

Sign Martinez and watch him have the same effect as signing Murphy. 45 HR, 125 RBI in this lineup. Guaranteed.

Doubt you get such a big haul for Harper at this point.

[Expos]

Doubt you get such a big haul for Harper at this point.

Anything we get is better than losing him for nothing. The Orioles are shopping Machado to get something of value before he bolts. We should be pro-active like them.

USA Today's Bob Nightengale reports that the Nationals "are realistic and firmly believe" Bryce Harper will test free agency next offseason

JD Martinez. Play him in LF with Eaton in RF and Taylor in LF then when Zimmermans deal expires move him to 1B and have Robles take over in OF.

[Slateman]

Rather have Hosmer in LF tbh

[varoadking]

Trade Harper for a nice haul of prospects.

Sign Martinez and watch him have the same effect as signing Murphy. 45 HR, 125 RBI in this lineup. Guaranteed.

We've been over this.  Who is going to give us a nice haul off prospects for Royce?

[Expos]

We've been over this.  Who is going to give us a nice haul off prospects for Royce?

Every team in the league has checked in on Machado. I'm fairly confident teams would be lining up for Harper if we offered him up.

[varoadking]

Every team in the league has checked in on Machado. I'm fairly confident teams would be lining up for Harper if we offered him up.

...and yet there Machado sits...

[Slateman]

Every team in the league has checked in on Machado. I'm fairly confident teams would be lining up for Harper if we offered him up.

But what would they offer?

The Marlins traded Stanton and Ozuna, and neither garnered a top 100 prospect

[dcpatti]

But what would they offer?

The Marlins traded Stanton and Ozuna, and neither garnered a top 100 prospect

The Marlins are idiots.  Just because they’re willing to get ripped off doesn’t mean everyone is.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We're trying to win a World Series in 2018.  How does trading Bryce Harper help us do that?  In what scenario do we trade him and get better this year? 

We're going to have Bryce in the lineup trying to win a World Series in 2018.  No brainer because he's one of the best players in the game.  We'll try to extend him during the season, but word is already out the Nats expect him to test the open market.  You never know though, and you can't believe every rumor reported.  If he does hit the open market, we'll make a QO so we at least get draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.  We'll do our best to resign him, and if we don't, we'll target another OF or just roll with Eaton, MAT, and Robles. 

[Natsinpwc]

We're trying to win a World Series in 2018.  How does trading Bryce Harper help us do that?  In what scenario do we trade him and get better this year? 

We're going to have Bryce in the lineup trying to win a World Series in 2018.  No brainer because he's one of the best players in the game.  We'll try to extend him during the season, but word is already out the Nats expect him to test the open market.  You never know though, and you can't believe every rumor reported.  If he does hit the open market, we'll make a QO so we at least get draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.  We'll do our best to resign him, and if we don't, we'll target another OF or just roll with Eaton, MAT, and Robles.

Posted something similar in the other thread. The only way I could see them trading him is if the wheels fall off this year and someone comes in at the trade deadline offering real prospects. Seems very unlikely.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Posted something similar in the other thread. The only way I could see them trading him is if the wheels fall off this year and someone comes in at the trade deadline offering real prospects. Seems very unlikely.

Yea, if we were out of it at the deadline, and he seemed totally unhappy with no chance of resigning, then you shop him.  That scenario is far fetched.  It would take a mega collapse to be out of the NL East race.  Even if we're .500 or really close to it, we'll be in the thick of that division race.

[Expos]

...and yet there Machado sits...

They put him on the market like 3 days ago man.

[Expos]

We're trying to win a World Series in 2018.  How does trading Bryce Harper help us do that?  In what scenario do we trade him and get better this year? 

We're going to have Bryce in the lineup trying to win a World Series in 2018.  No brainer because he's one of the best players in the game.  We'll try to extend him during the season, but word is already out the Nats expect him to test the open market.  You never know though, and you can't believe every rumor reported.  If he does hit the open market, we'll make a QO so we at least get draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.  We'll do our best to resign him, and if we don't, we'll target another OF or just roll with Eaton, MAT, and Robles.

We were one of the best teams in baseball without him when he was hurt. This lineup is stacked and subtract him and add JD Martinez doesn't make a bit of difference to our chances IMO.

We've done jack all for 4 years with him. Why would this year be any different.

I'd take an extended Rendon, a 3rd starter and JD Martinez any day of the week over Harper and his 400 million dollar contract.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

We were one of the best teams in baseball without him when he was hurt. This lineup is stacked and subtract him and add JD Martinez doesn't make a bit of difference to our chances IMO.

We've done jack all for 4 years with him. Why would this year be any different.

I'd take an extended Rendon, a 3rd starter and JD Martinez any day of the week over Harper and his 400 million dollar contract.

We weren't one of the best teams in baseball while he was out.  If you sign JD, which we won't, why don't you keep Harper as well for this year and shop MAT?  We'd then be super stacked.  I still don't follow your logic.  How does trading Harper help anything?  We aren't rebuilding and in need of prospects. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The Phils look like the 2nd best team in the division now.  They just signed Carlos Santana.  Hoskins will move to LF.  Crawford will be the everyday SS with Galvis traded. 

[NJ Ave]

How does trading Harper help anything?  We aren't rebuilding and in need of prospects. 

It obviously depends on the trade, for me. I certainly wouldn't do it for A-ball lottery tickets. However, while we aren't rebuilding I think it's fair to say that we could be reloading. We have 4 more years of Strasburg/Scherzer/Eaton/Trea/Robles and if re-sign Rendon I'm basically fine with that being the heart of the team. I don't believe that equals 2018 or bust, especially in this terrible division at this point when even 89-90 wins could be a division champ over the next 3-5 years.

Let's put it this way - last year the Brewers won 86 games and missed the playoffs by a game, while the Rockies won 87 games and made the playoffs by a game. The Brewers offense + pitching was worth 34.6 WAR and the Rockies offense + pitching was worth 31.9 WAR.

So if you assume that those 6 guys above should average 4 WAR apiece, that's 24 WAR, which is like 2-3 more WAR than the entire Orioles team had last year when they finished with 75 wins. So it's not an impossible situation or anything to add 12-15 more wins from the other 19 players on the roster over the next few years, although it's a lot less likely we're going to have 98-win seasons and a lot more likely we'll have 88-90 win seasons instead.

Now could those guys crater and not average 4 wins apiece? Of course. It's also possible Juan Soto ends up being the best player out of all of them. My point is simply that Bryce Harper isn't the end of the talent on this team, and if the right trade comes along - say a near-MLB ready 1B with a lot of pop - I don't think you turn it down just because 2018 is the last year we can possibly win. It's definitely not.

[Count Walewski]

We're trying to win a World Series in 2018. 

But we're not. The idea of betting it all on one year is fundamentally at odds with Rizzo's philosophy. He is not trying to win the World Series in 2018 - he is trying to field a team that will be competitive every year over the near-term future. He is thinking about 2019, 2020, etc. He views the playoffs as a crapshoot and wants to roll the dice as many times as possible by making the playoffs in as many years as possible.

Trading Harper this year would very much fit into Rizzo's philosophy.

[varoadking]

But we're not. The idea of betting it all on one year is fundamentally at odds with Rizzo's philosophy. He is not trying to win the World Series in 2018 - he is trying to field a team that will be competitive every year over the near-term future. He is thinking about 2019, 2020, etc. He views the playoffs as a crapshoot and wants to roll the dice as many times as possible by making the playoffs in as many years as possible.

Trading Harper this year would very much fit into Rizzo's philosophy.

Yet they had the perfect manager for that and they fired him...

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

But we're not. The idea of betting it all on one year is fundamentally at odds with Rizzo's philosophy. He is not trying to win the World Series in 2018 - he is trying to field a team that will be competitive every year over the near-term future. He is thinking about 2019, 2020, etc. He views the playoffs as a crapshoot and wants to roll the dice as many times as possible by making the playoffs in as many years as possible.

Trading Harper this year would very much fit into Rizzo's philosophy.

Wrong.  Yes he wants to contend every year without mortgaging the future.  He's succeeded in having a team capable of competing basically every year since 2012.  Still, how does trading Harper fit into that?  It severely reduces our chances to win this year, and it would be for a few prospects that may or may not help us years down the road.  We aren't going to at all improve for this year, as any team that trades for Harper in his last year of control obviously is trying to win now.  They aren't trading away major pieces from the big leagues and weakening another area.

When has Rizzo traded an important player in their last year under contract for prospects?  He kept Desmond.  He kept Zimmermann.  He's keeping Murphy.   Seriously, even if he hadn't got hurt, nobody would be saying trade Murphy because he won't resign...or will be over the hill when he does anyway.  Why is that?  Because for many reasons people like Murphy and Harper is a lightning rod.   

I have yet to see any scenario where trading Harper makes a lick of sense.  Frankly, some of you are prematurely upset about the certainty (in your eyes) he leaves without winning a title, and you're talking emotionally and not rationally. 

[Ray D]

He is not trying to win the World Series in 2018 - he is trying to field a team that will be competitive every year over the near-term future.

The two are not mutually exclusive.

[NJ Ave]

It severely reduces our chances to win this year...

Certainly could be untrue, by the way. Even anecdotally, you're talking about a guy who we've never won a playoff series with, in whose best year we actually missed the playoffs. So there's no real evidence that Bryce drives us winning in the playoffs. And if there ever was a year where a team should shed a few current year wins for future year wins, because it has a really good chance of making the playoffs no matter what, that team is the 2018 Nationals in that historically bad division.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Certainly could be untrue, by the way. Even anecdotally, you're talking about a guy who we've never won a playoff series with, in whose best year we actually missed the playoffs. So there's no real evidence that Bryce drives us winning in the playoffs. And if there ever was a year where a team should shed a few current year wins for future year wins, because it has a really good chance of making the playoffs no matter what, that team is the 2018 Nationals in that historically bad division.

How do you argue losing a MVP-caliber bat doesn't hurt our chances?  Because we didn't win with him?  Well, we certainly aren't positioned as well to make the playoffs without him all year, let alone win in the postseason.  These are just butthurt takes over the TEAM not coming through in past years.  Why don't we just trade everybody?  We haven't won a postseason series with Max, Stras, Murphy, Rendon, Zimmerman...any of them either. 

[Natsinpwc]

It obviously depends on the trade, for me. I certainly wouldn't do it for A-ball lottery tickets. However, while we aren't rebuilding I think it's fair to say that we could be reloading. We have 4 more years of Strasburg/Scherzer/Eaton/Trea/Robles and if re-sign Rendon I'm basically fine with that being the heart of the team. I don't believe that equals 2018 or bust, especially in this terrible division at this point when even 89-90 wins could be a division champ over the next 3-5 years.

Let's put it this way - last year the Brewers won 86 games and missed the playoffs by a game, while the Rockies won 87 games and made the playoffs by a game. The Brewers offense + pitching was worth 34.6 WAR and the Rockies offense + pitching was worth 31.9 WAR.

So if you assume that those 6 guys above should average 4 WAR apiece, that's 24 WAR, which is like 2-3 more WAR than the entire Orioles team had last year when they finished with 75 wins. So it's not an impossible situation or anything to add 12-15 more wins from the other 19 players on the roster over the next few years, although it's a lot less likely we're going to have 98-win seasons and a lot more likely we'll have 88-90 win seasons instead.

Now could those guys crater and not average 4 wins apiece? Of course. It's also possible Juan Soto ends up being the best player out of all of them. My point is simply that Bryce Harper isn't the end of the talent on this team, and if the right trade comes along - say a near-MLB ready 1B with a lot of pop - I don't think you turn it down just because 2018 is the last year we can possibly win. It's definitely not.

Rendon will test the market also. Why do you think he will sign an extension?

[bluestreak]

Rendon has had an injury history and has two more years until free Agency. If the Nats made him a good offer he might consider taking it.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Rendon has had an injury history and has two more years until free Agency. If the Nats made him a good offer he might consider taking it.

I agree.  If Rendon can lock in 100+ million right now, he'd be crazy not to take it.  Maybe have an opt-out in case he stays healthy for several more years putting up All Star numbers.