2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread

[NJ Ave]

I could see JZ returning here and pitching closer to his previous form. There is something to be said about comfort and environment. I wouldn't give up much to get him though with that salary, nor should we need to.

I was kinda surprised when I looked him up that he's only lost a mile and a half on his FB from his peak with the Nats to last year. That really doesn't seem like it should have ended his career as a effective starter. He still averaged 92.2 last year. When you look at his FB heatmaps from 2017 and 2014, it seems clear that in 2014 he worked higher in the zone and out of the top of the zone, and in 2017 he basically throws a bunch of meatballs in the heart of the plate.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

So you wonder if that's a loss of command, or a mechanical problem, or a strategic blunder?

This is him vs. RHB. You can almost see a distinct move of two quandrants down and to the outside part of the plate, which brings the centerpoint right over the middle.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

Then his slider against RHB. In 2014 you see a wider spread, whereas in 2017 you're basically looking bottom outside corner - in 2014 only one middle square hits 4% of his sliders, whereas in 2017 5 contiguous squares on the bottom outside corner account are over 4%.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

Anyways, again, who knows why that's happening, and maybe the answer is simply "he can't pitch anymore". Certainly it's not a good strategy to be throwing 92 MPH fastballs right down the middle of the plate.

[Natsinpwc]

I was kinda surprised when I looked him up that he's only lost a mile and a half on his FB from his peak with the Nats to last year. That really doesn't seem like it should have ended his career as a effective starter. He still averaged 92.2 last year. When you look at his FB heatmaps from 2017 and 2014, it seems clear that in 2014 he worked higher in the zone and out of the top of the zone, and in 2017 he basically throws a bunch of meatballs in the heart of the plate.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

So you wonder if that's a loss of command, or a mechanical problem, or a strategic blunder?

This is him vs. RHB. You can almost see a distinct move of two quandrants down and to the outside part of the plate, which brings the centerpoint right over the middle.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

Then his slider against RHB. In 2014 you see a wider spread, whereas in 2017 you're basically looking bottom outside corner - in 2014 only one middle square hits 4% of his sliders, whereas in 2017 5 contiguous squares on the bottom outside corner account are over 4%.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

Anyways, again, who knows why that's happening, and maybe the answer is simply "he can't pitch anymore". Certainly it's not a good strategy to be throwing 92 MPH fastballs right down the middle of the plate.

Great analysis. Pitching is like real estate. Location. Location. Location.

[UMDNats]

good post NJ

[Slateman]

Zimmermann was likely hampered by a neck/lat injury for most of the season.

[Count Walewski]

Hold up. Before we get up to our eyeball in stats, somebody please explain why the Detroit Tigers would trade Zimmermann right now and eat an enormous portion of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs, when they could hold on to him another year or two and see if he has a good season. His trade value also improves the less money there is left on his contract.

[Natsinpwc]

Hold up. Before we get up to our eyeball in stats, somebody please explain why the Detroit Tigers would trade Zimmermann right now and eat an enormous portion of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs, when they could hold on to him another year or two and see if he has a good season. His trade value also improves the less money there is left on his contract.

Cause Rizzo is a genius?
They would have to give up something of value. Soto?

[NJ Ave]

Cause Rizzo is a genius?
They would have to give up something of value. Soto?

Lol, no way a team is giving up something of value to get Zimmermann, especially not a Soto-like value. I guess if they ate his entire contract, you'd give up something. But realistically the Rangers just got Doug Fister - whose last 2 seasons include 270 IP of 4.72 ERA ball - for $4 million with a club option for another year at $7.5 million.

So even if you ate the entire contract, what would you even give up in prospect value for Jordan Zimmermann - he of the last 2 seasons that include 265 IP of 5.60 ERA ball? Nothing like Soto, for sure.

[Natsinpwc]

Lol, no way a team is giving up something of value to get Zimmermann, especially not a Soto-like value. I guess if they ate his entire contract, you'd give up something. But realistically the Rangers just got Doug Fister - whose last 2 seasons include 270 IP of 4.72 ERA ball - for $4 million with a club option for another year at $7.5 million.

So even if you ate the entire contract, what would you even give up in prospect value for Jordan Zimmermann - he of the last 2 seasons that include 265 IP of 5.60 ERA ball? Nothing like Soto, for sure.

You may be right. Shows how overvalued prospects are. There are lots of pitchers who have had bad years and bounced back. What are the odds Soto become a good MLB player? 50 %? I would be happy to give up less but cant see them making a trade if they don't get a decent prospect. Why would they trade him for next to nothing?

[NJ Ave]

You may be right. Shows how overvalued prospects are. There are lots of pitchers who have had bad years and bounced back. What are the odds Soto become a good MLB player? 50 %? I would be happy to give up less but cant see them making a trade if they don't get a decent prospect. Why would they trade him for next to nothing?

One reason might be, because another team is still willing to pay $8-10 million a year for 3 years and the Tigers just went 64-98 and don't need to pay a 5th starter $25-30 million over that timespan. Interesting premise, that lots of pitchers bounce back. I wonder if that's really true and maybe I'll test it and report back

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

You don't trade prospects of any merit for a reclamation project like JZ.  You go out and sign them in free agency ala Doug Fister. 

[Natsinpwc]

You don't trade prospects of any merit for a reclamation project like JZ.  You go out and sign them in free agency ala Doug Fister.

JZ is two years younger. Also the Nats have no money so they need another team to pay salary.

[Natsinpwc]

One reason might be, because another team is still willing to pay $8-10 million a year for 3 years and the Tigers just went 64-98 and don't need to pay a 5th starter $25-30 million over that timespan. Interesting premise, that lots of pitchers bounce back. I wonder if that's really true and maybe I'll test it and report back

Well Doug Fister for one. He looked totally washed up in that last season with the Nats. Gio had a good season this past year after his stats trended downward for several years.  You never know.

[NJ Ave]

You never often, but don't always, know.

I edited this to be something I agree with

[Natsinpwc]

I edited this to be something I agree with

John Lackey. CC Sabathia.

[Slateman]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/936039933562839042

Wieters and a prospect for Grandal?

[aBaltoNat]

https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/936039933562839042

Wieters and a prospect for Grandal?

Expensive backup for them...

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I saw the report the Dodgers are willing to trade Grandal, but I don't see why they'd want Wieters back in return.  Grandal is in his last year of arbitration, and they want Barnes as the primary guy.  Why take back an expensive 1-year guy in Wieters?  They already have a much better version of that in Grandal. 

Grandal would be a nice pick up if we can get him.  We'll likely be stuck with Wieters as an expensive backup/platoon.  Both are switch hitters.

[UMDNats]

rizzo said the nats have "as good a chance as anyone in baseball" to re-sign harper

i'd freaking hope so

[madj55]

Would love Grandal. Would be nice to see what Long could do with him.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I wonder if the Dodgers would be relucant to trade Grandal to one of their 2 biggest threats in the NL and helping them fix their biggest weak link?  I imagine the answer is yes.

[Baseball is Life]

Does anyone really know what other bids there were?

Know? Not really. Just from the general media reports. Why else would he have gone to Detroit, the garden spot of North America?

[Ray D]

Know? Not really. Just from the general media reports. Why else would he have gone to Detroit, the garden spot of North America?

What I read is that among the teams interested, Detroit was the closest to where he wanted to be.  Brewers weren't interested.  He didn't plan to spend any quality time in Detroit, on off days his plan was to jet to the family. Don't know how that worked out.

[Expos]

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton.

Morosi adds the contingency that San Francisco would also have to assume $250 million of the $295 million remaining on Stanton's contract. There's a lot of detail to this latest report, which gives us the impression a deal might be close. Or perhaps it's a signal to other clubs in the running (like the Cardinals and Red Sox) that final, best offers need to be submitted. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote Thursday morning that the Yankees have spoken to the Marlins about a possible Stanton trade, but it sounds like the financials don't match up between those two clubs.

Related: Giants

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Get on it Rizzo.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton.

Morosi adds the contingency that San Francisco would also have to assume $250 million of the $295 million remaining on Stanton's contract. There's a lot of detail to this latest report, which gives us the impression a deal might be close. Or perhaps it's a signal to other clubs in the running (like the Cardinals and Red Sox) that final, best offers need to be submitted. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote Thursday morning that the Yankees have spoken to the Marlins about a possible Stanton trade, but it sounds like the financials don't match up between those two clubs.

Related: Giants

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Get on it Rizzo.

What are you wanting to trade the Marlins for Stanton?  How are we going to take on that much salary?

[aBaltoNat]

Wellington Castillo off the market. 2 years $15 million from the White Sox.