Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 55823 times)

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #750: December 15, 2017, 02:25:13 PM »
I didn't say trade him, I'm just not sold on keeping him without knowing what trade is available.

Before the 2017 season, Fangraphs ranked Aaron Judge the 61st overall prospect, then he hit 52 HRs. I realize that's a huge outlier, but you don't need to make the trade if no one offers what you want. I don't think it's crazy to think that someone might offer a really good prospect or two for Bryce.

I'm also not arguing that it doesn't hurt our chances. I'm arguing that (a) we'll be huge favorites in the division with or without him, and (b) people overrate our chances to win the World Series in general, and (c) people overrate what losing Bryce does to those chances. We might be have a 10% chance with him, and a 9% chance without him. I'd be willing to hurt our 2018 chances that much if it helped us in the long-run.

Of course, my preference is to sign him :)

I think we could get a few decently rated prospects for Harper.  I got into a long debate about that hypothetical situation weeks back.  But I'm not willing to significantly reduce our chances at winning this year, while also basically elimnating any chance of signing Harper next winter, just for a few lottery tickets for the next Aaron Judge.  Is the prospect haul going to be siginificantly better than the draft pick compensation pick we'd get giving Harper a QO?   

Yes, we could win the NL East without Harper.  The Phils are improved, but we'd still be favorites.  So what?  The Yankees didn't trade for Stanton to win the AL East.  They traded for him to help their chances of winning a World Series.  We are a top contender for the World Series, regardless of the eye rolling of the butthurt over our past disappointments.  Harper helps our chances significantly to win the 11 postseason games we'd need to win.  Just like Murphy does, Rendon does, Max does, etc.  Sure you can point to past years where any one of our key players wasn't great in the 4 or 5 game postseason sample and we lost.  That doesn't mean you don't want as many great players as possible.  You don't need them all to have a great series, but the more of them you have, the more likely enough of them do well to carry you to victory.