Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 55048 times)

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Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3208
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #425: November 29, 2017, 10:07:09 AM »
I could see JZ returning here and pitching closer to his previous form. There is something to be said about comfort and environment. I wouldn't give up much to get him though with that salary, nor should we need to.

I was kinda surprised when I looked him up that he's only lost a mile and a half on his FB from his peak with the Nats to last year. That really doesn't seem like it should have ended his career as a effective starter. He still averaged 92.2 last year. When you look at his FB heatmaps from 2017 and 2014, it seems clear that in 2014 he worked higher in the zone and out of the top of the zone, and in 2017 he basically throws a bunch of meatballs in the heart of the plate.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

So you wonder if that's a loss of command, or a mechanical problem, or a strategic blunder?

This is him vs. RHB. You can almost see a distinct move of two quandrants down and to the outside part of the plate, which brings the centerpoint right over the middle.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

Then his slider against RHB. In 2014 you see a wider spread, whereas in 2017 you're basically looking bottom outside corner - in 2014 only one middle square hits 4% of his sliders, whereas in 2017 5 contiguous squares on the bottom outside corner account are over 4%.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

Anyways, again, who knows why that's happening, and maybe the answer is simply "he can't pitch anymore". Certainly it's not a good strategy to be throwing 92 MPH fastballs right down the middle of the plate.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #426: November 29, 2017, 10:19:51 AM »
I was kinda surprised when I looked him up that he's only lost a mile and a half on his FB from his peak with the Nats to last year. That really doesn't seem like it should have ended his career as a effective starter. He still averaged 92.2 last year. When you look at his FB heatmaps from 2017 and 2014, it seems clear that in 2014 he worked higher in the zone and out of the top of the zone, and in 2017 he basically throws a bunch of meatballs in the heart of the plate.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=all&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

So you wonder if that's a loss of command, or a mechanical problem, or a strategic blunder?

This is him vs. RHB. You can almost see a distinct move of two quandrants down and to the outside part of the plate, which brings the centerpoint right over the middle.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=FA,SI&season=all&data=pi

Then his slider against RHB. In 2014 you see a wider spread, whereas in 2017 you're basically looking bottom outside corner - in 2014 only one middle square hits 4% of his sliders, whereas in 2017 5 contiguous squares on the bottom outside corner account are over 4%.

2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2017-04-08&se=2017-09-27&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=

2014: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=4505&position=P&ss=2014-04-04&se=2014-09-28&type=0&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=pit&pitch=SL&season=all&data=pi

Anyways, again, who knows why that's happening, and maybe the answer is simply "he can't pitch anymore". Certainly it's not a good strategy to be throwing 92 MPH fastballs right down the middle of the plate.
Great analysis. Pitching is like real estate. Location. Location. Location.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #427: November 29, 2017, 10:20:27 AM »
good post NJ

Offline Slateman

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  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #428: November 29, 2017, 10:35:34 AM »
Zimmermann was likely hampered by a neck/lat injury for most of the season.

Offline Count Walewski

  • Posts: 1906
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #429: November 29, 2017, 10:56:44 AM »
Hold up. Before we get up to our eyeball in stats, somebody please explain why the Detroit Tigers would trade Zimmermann right now and eat an enormous portion of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs, when they could hold on to him another year or two and see if he has a good season. His trade value also improves the less money there is left on his contract.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #430: November 29, 2017, 10:58:04 AM »
Hold up. Before we get up to our eyeball in stats, somebody please explain why the Detroit Tigers would trade Zimmermann right now and eat an enormous portion of his salary in exchange for a bag of baseballs, when they could hold on to him another year or two and see if he has a good season. His trade value also improves the less money there is left on his contract.
Cause Rizzo is a genius?
They would have to give up something of value. Soto?

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3208
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #431: November 29, 2017, 01:51:17 PM »
Cause Rizzo is a genius?
They would have to give up something of value. Soto?

Lol, no way a team is giving up something of value to get Zimmermann, especially not a Soto-like value. I guess if they ate his entire contract, you'd give up something. But realistically the Rangers just got Doug Fister - whose last 2 seasons include 270 IP of 4.72 ERA ball - for $4 million with a club option for another year at $7.5 million.

So even if you ate the entire contract, what would you even give up in prospect value for Jordan Zimmermann - he of the last 2 seasons that include 265 IP of 5.60 ERA ball? Nothing like Soto, for sure.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #432: November 29, 2017, 02:18:21 PM »
Lol, no way a team is giving up something of value to get Zimmermann, especially not a Soto-like value. I guess if they ate his entire contract, you'd give up something. But realistically the Rangers just got Doug Fister - whose last 2 seasons include 270 IP of 4.72 ERA ball - for $4 million with a club option for another year at $7.5 million.

So even if you ate the entire contract, what would you even give up in prospect value for Jordan Zimmermann - he of the last 2 seasons that include 265 IP of 5.60 ERA ball? Nothing like Soto, for sure.
You may be right. Shows how overvalued prospects are. There are lots of pitchers who have had bad years and bounced back. What are the odds Soto become a good MLB player? 50 %? I would be happy to give up less but cant see them making a trade if they don't get a decent prospect. Why would they trade him for next to nothing?

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3208
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #433: November 29, 2017, 02:22:05 PM »
You may be right. Shows how overvalued prospects are. There are lots of pitchers who have had bad years and bounced back. What are the odds Soto become a good MLB player? 50 %? I would be happy to give up less but cant see them making a trade if they don't get a decent prospect. Why would they trade him for next to nothing?

One reason might be, because another team is still willing to pay $8-10 million a year for 3 years and the Tigers just went 64-98 and don't need to pay a 5th starter $25-30 million over that timespan. Interesting premise, that lots of pitchers bounce back. I wonder if that's really true and maybe I'll test it and report back :)

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1014
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #434: November 29, 2017, 02:36:44 PM »
You don't trade prospects of any merit for a reclamation project like JZ.  You go out and sign them in free agency ala Doug Fister. 

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #435: November 29, 2017, 03:20:31 PM »
You don't trade prospects of any merit for a reclamation project like JZ.  You go out and sign them in free agency ala Doug Fister.
JZ is two years younger. Also the Nats have no money so they need another team to pay salary.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #436: November 29, 2017, 03:22:04 PM »
One reason might be, because another team is still willing to pay $8-10 million a year for 3 years and the Tigers just went 64-98 and don't need to pay a 5th starter $25-30 million over that timespan. Interesting premise, that lots of pitchers bounce back. I wonder if that's really true and maybe I'll test it and report back :)
Well Doug Fister for one. He looked totally washed up in that last season with the Nats. Gio had a good season this past year after his stats trended downward for several years.  You never know.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #437: November 29, 2017, 04:07:56 PM »
You never often, but don't always, know.

I edited this to be something I agree with :)

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 11903
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #438: November 29, 2017, 04:25:00 PM »
I edited this to be something I agree with :)
John Lackey. CC Sabathia.

Offline Slateman

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  • thanosdidnothingwrong
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #439: November 29, 2017, 09:39:39 PM »

Offline aBaltoNat

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1014
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #441: November 30, 2017, 09:59:56 AM »
I saw the report the Dodgers are willing to trade Grandal, but I don't see why they'd want Wieters back in return.  Grandal is in his last year of arbitration, and they want Barnes as the primary guy.  Why take back an expensive 1-year guy in Wieters?  They already have a much better version of that in Grandal. 

Grandal would be a nice pick up if we can get him.  We'll likely be stuck with Wieters as an expensive backup/platoon.  Both are switch hitters.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 14387
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #442: November 30, 2017, 10:10:20 AM »
rizzo said the nats have "as good a chance as anyone in baseball" to re-sign harper :lmao:

i'd freaking hope so

Offline madj55

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #443: November 30, 2017, 10:45:59 AM »
Would love Grandal. Would be nice to see what Long could do with him.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1014
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #444: November 30, 2017, 01:08:49 PM »
I wonder if the Dodgers would be relucant to trade Grandal to one of their 2 biggest threats in the NL and helping them fix their biggest weak link?  I imagine the answer is yes.

Online Baseball is Life

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #445: November 30, 2017, 01:24:15 PM »
Does anyone really know what other bids there were?

Know? Not really. Just from the general media reports. Why else would he have gone to Detroit, the garden spot of North America?

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 9829
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #446: November 30, 2017, 01:38:32 PM »
Know? Not really. Just from the general media reports. Why else would he have gone to Detroit, the garden spot of North America?
What I read is that among the teams interested, Detroit was the closest to where he wanted to be.  Brewers weren't interested.  He didn't plan to spend any quality time in Detroit, on off days his plan was to jet to the family. Don't know how that worked out.

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 609
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #447: November 30, 2017, 06:22:51 PM »
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton.

Morosi adds the contingency that San Francisco would also have to assume $250 million of the $295 million remaining on Stanton's contract. There's a lot of detail to this latest report, which gives us the impression a deal might be close. Or perhaps it's a signal to other clubs in the running (like the Cardinals and Red Sox) that final, best offers need to be submitted. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote Thursday morning that the Yankees have spoken to the Marlins about a possible Stanton trade, but it sounds like the financials don't match up between those two clubs.

Related: Giants

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Get on it Rizzo.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

  • Posts: 1014
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #448: December 01, 2017, 01:56:11 PM »
According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Marlins "likely would accept" an offer of Joe Panik, Tyler Beede, and Chris Shaw from the Giants for Giancarlo Stanton.

Morosi adds the contingency that San Francisco would also have to assume $250 million of the $295 million remaining on Stanton's contract. There's a lot of detail to this latest report, which gives us the impression a deal might be close. Or perhaps it's a signal to other clubs in the running (like the Cardinals and Red Sox) that final, best offers need to be submitted. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports wrote Thursday morning that the Yankees have spoken to the Marlins about a possible Stanton trade, but it sounds like the financials don't match up between those two clubs.

Related: Giants

Source: Jon Morosi on Twitter

Get on it Rizzo.

What are you wanting to trade the Marlins for Stanton?  How are we going to take on that much salary?

Offline aBaltoNat

  • Posts: 1452
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #449: December 01, 2017, 03:45:53 PM »
Wellington Castillo off the market. 2 years $15 million from the White Sox.