Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 55210 times)

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Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #375: November 21, 2017, 02:19:39 PM »
Nah, if it's our last year of Harper, put him in as Catcher and Taylor at CF.

I wonder if he can frame pitches?   I think that's brilliant.  Let the Dodgers worry about his knees later.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #376: November 21, 2017, 05:39:12 PM »
The Braves are about to lose a bunch of prospects.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-hammers-atlanta-braves-declaring-12-minor-league-players-free-agents-201314625.html

The Braves will not be allowed to sign 14-year-old shortstop Robert Puason, the top player in the class of 2019, with whom they had illegally struck a deal. Atlanta also will lose a third-round draft pick in 2018 for offering inducements to a drafted player.




The Braves:

 1. Will lose 12 players + Bae + Puason

Nine players (Juan Contrares, Yefri del Rosario, Abrahan Gutierrez, Kevin Maitan, Juan Carlos Negret, Yenci Pena, Yunior Severino, Livan Soto and Guillermo Zuniga) from the Braves’ 2015-16 signing class, the majority of whom received bonuses in excess of $1 million, will be declared free agents, as will three players from the most recent class (Brandol Mezquita, Angel Rojas and Antonio Sucre).

Teams will be able to use money from the current bonus period (2017-18) or dip into next year's pool (2018-19). They cannot combine the money from both years.

 2. Will lose their third-round pick in the 2018 draft (because of Drew Waters extra benefit. Waters will remain with Atlanta)

 3. Will face severe penalties in the two periods after 2018-19 period (already limited to max 300k for 2017-18, 2018-19 periods)

In 2019-20, Atlanta will be restricted from spending more than $10,000 per player.

In 2020-21, the Braves will lose half their signing-bonus pool, which is expected to be $4.75 million.

 4. Will also be banned from signing Robert Puason, the 14-year-old shortstop from the Dominican Republic & the contract between Bae will be disapproved

 5. John Coppolella has been placed on the permanently ineligible list and Gordon Blakeley has been suspended for one year


Rizzo needs to get in on Kevin Maitan if he becomes a free agent

Offline USF_Football

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #377: November 21, 2017, 06:46:48 PM »
Definitely agree about Maitan. He's probably going to move to 3B anyways - if not 1B, so just in time to replace Rendon or whomever is our 1B four years from now. They said he was going to be as good as Miggy... although he struggled in the Applachian League - however he's only 17. Get after him since Otani is out of the question!

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #378: November 26, 2017, 07:48:53 AM »
Article on the impact of the competitive balance tax on the Nats 2018 payroll:

http://www.talknats.com/2017/11/26/the-mlb-competitive-balance-tax-impact-on-the-nats-payroll/

(Thinking about whether the tax discussion is worth a separate thread. Mods?)

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #379: November 26, 2017, 08:04:40 AM »
Article on the impact of the competitive balance tax on the Nats 2018 payroll:

http://www.talknats.com/2017/11/26/the-mlb-competitive-balance-tax-impact-on-the-nats-payroll/

3.7 million to fill out the bench

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #380: November 26, 2017, 08:20:40 AM »
3.7 million to fill out the bench

Not a lot of money to get a decent catcher.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #381: November 26, 2017, 10:02:08 AM »
Article on the impact of the competitive balance tax on the Nats 2018 payroll:

http://www.talknats.com/2017/11/26/the-mlb-competitive-balance-tax-impact-on-the-nats-payroll/

(Thinking about whether the tax discussion is worth a separate thread. Mods?)
The Nats can’t get a first round pick for Harper.   The difference between going over the cap or not is a pick after the fourth  round or a pick after the second round.   

Also you mentioned salaries are going up at afaster rate than the threshold.  They were basically flat last year compared to 2016 and it is likely salaries start to correct downwards as cable money is anticipated to dry up.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #382: November 26, 2017, 10:08:03 AM »
The Nats can’t get a first round pick for Harper.   The difference between going over the cap or not is a pick after the fourth  round or a pick after the second round.   

Also you mentioned salaries are going up at afaster rate than the threshold.  They were basically flat last year compared to 2016 and it is likely salaries start to correct downwards as cable money is anticipated to dry up.


Why would it affect it this year? Harper's departure would affect the 2019 MLB draft, no? And those rules would be based on the 2018 payroll, not this past season?

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #383: November 26, 2017, 10:10:48 AM »
The Nats can’t get a first round pick for Harper.   The difference between going over the cap or not is a pick after the fourth  round or a pick after the second round.   

Also you mentioned salaries are going up at afaster rate than the threshold.  They were basically flat last year compared to 2016 and it is likely salaries start to correct downwards as cable money is anticipated to dry up.

Do you have a link on the draft pick info? The first round pick going to fourth is what I found, but it was from a Tigers blog, I couldn't find a lot of good info on the draft impact of going over the cap.

According to Fangraphs the cap is rising at 1.9% per season and total payroll is rising at 6.7% per season, a significant difference. People have been predicting that salaries can't continue to rise so fast for a lot of years but they still keep shooting up. With MLB making record profits I wouldn't expect the trend to stop now.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #384: November 26, 2017, 10:20:36 AM »
Do you have a link on the draft pick info? The first round pick going to fourth is what I found, but it was from a Tigers blog, I couldn't find a lot of good info on the draft impact of going over the cap.

According to Fangraphs the cap is rising at 1.9% per season and total payroll is rising at 6.7% per season, a significant difference. People have been predicting that salaries can't continue to rise so fast for a lot of years but they still keep shooting up. With MLB making record profits I wouldn't expect the trend to stop now.

It's in the article you posted

" In addition, if the Nats make a qualifying offer and have the player sign elsewhere, they will only receive a 4th round compensation pick instead of a 1st rounder."

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #385: November 26, 2017, 10:23:07 AM »
It's in the article you posted

" In addition, if the Nats make a qualifying offer and have the player sign elsewhere, they will only receive a 4th round compensation pick instead of a 1st rounder."

Nfotiu stated that it should have read a 4th instead of a 2nd. If that can be verified I'll correct the article.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #386: November 26, 2017, 10:26:48 AM »
https://www.google.com/amp/amp.si.com/mlb/2017/11/07/mlb-free-agency-compensation-rules-draft-picks-qualifying-offer

There’s the link.  If we’re under the cap for the 2018 season , I believe we fall in the category that doesn’t receive revenue sharing and didn’t pay tax the preceding year.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #387: November 26, 2017, 10:28:14 AM »
Nfotiu stated that it should have read a 4th instead of a 2nd. If that can be verified I'll correct the article.


https://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/new-cba-changes-draft/

If you're a poor team and your former player signs a contract in excess of 50 million, you get a first rounder.

If you're not a poor team, but not paying the luxury tax,  you get a second rounder.

If you're paying the tax, you get a 4th

Offline nfotiu

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #388: November 26, 2017, 10:34:38 AM »
Here’s an article about salaries being almost flat last year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/story/99960994/

Of course, where they go in the future is anyone’s guess.  My speculation is that a lot of teams are unsure where future revenues are going and are spending more wisely.  Teams are also starting to realize that big FA signings are not the best path to success.  The fact that no one has signed yet this off season suggests to me that teams aren’t offering as much as the agents were hoping.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #389: November 26, 2017, 10:39:48 AM »
So if, at best, all you can get is a second round pick for Harper's departure, does it change anyone's opinion on trading him?

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #390: November 26, 2017, 10:43:30 AM »
Here’s an article about salaries being almost flat last year.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/story/99960994/

Of course, where they go in the future is anyone’s guess.  My speculation is that a lot of teams are unsure where future revenues are going and are spending more wisely.  Teams are also starting to realize that big FA signings are not the best path to success.  The fact that no one has signed yet this off season suggests to me that teams aren’t offering as much as the agents were hoping.

Fangraphs noted that the tax threshold will likely reduce spending as teams try to stay under the cap, but with revenues continuing to rise I would be surprised to see total payroll actually drop, more likely they will grow at a slower rate.

With the Nats being on the wrong side of the revenue sharing divide they will only get a 2nd round pick if Harper leaves and they are under the cap. I'll correct the article.

Online UMDNats

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #391: November 26, 2017, 10:49:35 AM »
So if, at best, all you can get is a second round pick for Harper's departure, does it change anyone's opinion on trading him?

I'm cool with trading him, but I also don't think it's a realistic thing that can happen. PR and appearances do matter in the real world and trading the face of the team in a World Series year is a big deal. I don't think we'd ever get the proper value to sell it to the fans.

Say, hypothetically, the Yankees wanted him. Would something like Clint Frazier, Albert Abreu (#7 prospect, SP), Tyler Wade (SS/2B), and Thairo Estrada (#17 prospect, SS/2B) be a starting point? I'd probably do that trade. The Yankees could lock up Harper before the season is even over, but there's no guarantee. They or the Cubs or Dodgers are the only way we get the proper value for him IMO.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #392: November 26, 2017, 12:52:12 PM »
I'm cool with trading him, but I also don't think it's a realistic thing that can happen. PR and appearances do matter in the real world and trading the face of the team in a World Series year is a big deal. I don't think we'd ever get the proper value to sell it to the fans.

Say, hypothetically, the Yankees wanted him. Would something like Clint Frazier, Albert Abreu (#7 prospect, SP), Tyler Wade (SS/2B), and Thairo Estrada (#17 prospect, SS/2B) be a starting point? I'd probably do that trade. The Yankees could lock up Harper before the season is even over, but there's no guarantee. They or the Cubs or Dodgers are the only way we get the proper value for him IMO.

I think that's realistically the best deal you could get right now. I just don't see why the Yankees would do it.

Offline monkeyhit

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #393: November 26, 2017, 03:19:29 PM »
I think you wait to see how Harper and the season unfolds. If it looks like we are playoff-bound and he is hitting, we let him play out his contract. Otherwise, trade him at the deadline to the highest bidder.

Offline sph274

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #394: November 26, 2017, 04:27:12 PM »
Why not just see how Frazier plays this season and sign Harper next year if he busts? No reason for the YAnkees to sacrifice that much for one year of Harper

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #395: November 26, 2017, 05:57:57 PM »
Why not just see how Frazier plays this season and sign Harper next year if he busts? No reason for the YAnkees to sacrifice that much for one year of Harper
And even if he busts, you can rotate Harper, Otani, and Judge in the corners and DH.

The Yankees need pitching, badly.

Online PowerBoater69

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #396: November 26, 2017, 06:01:08 PM »
Why not just see how Frazier plays this season and sign Harper next year if he busts? No reason for the YAnkees to sacrifice that much for one year of Harper

At $25 million Harper will be paid about $20-25 million below what he could get on a one year deal as a free agent, so that difference is his value in a trade. Doubtful it would happen, but certainly we could expect a fairly significant return for that amount of money, a top catching prospect and a couple decent other guys.

Offline Slateman

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Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #399: November 26, 2017, 09:02:18 PM »
I think you wait to see how Harper and the season unfolds. If it looks like we are playoff-bound and he is hitting, we let him play out his contract. Otherwise, trade him at the deadline to the highest bidder.

We will be contenders with or without Harper.

Might as well trade him for prospects and sign a bat who will be here for the long run