Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 15130 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41702
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #350: November 20, 2017, 07:22:37 PM »
That's It?? For a MVP who almost cracked 60 homers??

Good Lord Rizzo get on it.


Uh ... given the contract they're taking on, that's quite a bit. Panik for Gordon is probably good straight up, given the money dump. Beede is probably equivalent to Fedde at the beginning of the 2017 season. Shaw has power. Overall, it's a decent opening offer, given that the Giants would eat most of the salary.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 2866
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #351: November 20, 2017, 09:20:31 PM »
Does he have no trade rights yet? If I were him, I'd want to be anywhere but Miami at this point.

He has full no trade.


Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41702

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 8645
  • Team America 2017
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #354: November 20, 2017, 10:39:35 PM »
Craig Mish ✔ @CraigMish
Source : Giants/Marlins names exchanged in potential Stanton deal : (SF) 2B Joe Panik, Top Prospects SP Tyler Beede & OF Chris Shaw. (Mia) Stanton & 2B Dee Gordon.


If the Giants really offered that, the Marlins should have taken it and run
That's roughly equivalent to Wilmer Difo and Fedde and Soto. If you're bullish on Difo, then that is even better package than the one supposedly for Stanton.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 24362
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #355: November 20, 2017, 10:43:14 PM »
That's roughly equivalent to Wilmer Difo and Fedde and Soto. If you're bullish on Difo, then that is even better package than the one supposedly for Stanton.

Seems like the marlins feel that they aren’t going to get much given stanton’s contract.

Offline UMDNats

  • Posts: 13552
  • hire a-rod
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #356: November 20, 2017, 11:35:50 PM »
In what universe is Wilmer Difo equivalent to Joe Panik? Difo was alright this year (mostly defensively) but that's it. Panik didn't have a great year but offensively was way better than Difo and has a much longer track record.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 15308
  • Nats RP have no nerve
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #357: November 21, 2017, 12:08:17 AM »
A few folks complained about the personal insults.  The substantive point Knorr was making is in Reply #332 in response to #327 from Ray.  I kept the substance. 

On the substance, I agree with Knorr.  I don't think that immigrants from Cuba abandon baseball when they emigrate. It doesn't match what I know of families like Gio's and others who come out of the Florida baseball scene, it doesn't match any reporting I've seen, so I don't quite know where Ray is getting his idea.  You might want to look at the Marlins's attendance, but I think that has a ton more to do with how the franchise has been mismanaged, first with the bad stadium location (Joe Robby or whatever it is called) and then with the Loria "pump and dump" player development and skinny budget.

I think you're on the money here.  Also, the Marlins' franchise is still only a generation or so old.  Miami has a history of being more like a suburb of NY - I'd bet there's a big Yankee fan presence in South Florida.

Offline Truconfidence

  • Posts: 2774
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #358: November 21, 2017, 12:52:41 AM »
I thought Stanton didn’t want to go to SF or St. Louis.

i thought he said Boston and St louis. Word is he wants to be in California obviously the Dodgers

Edit. sorry did not read the later post first.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41702
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #359: November 21, 2017, 08:33:09 AM »
That's roughly equivalent to Wilmer Difo and Fedde and Soto. If you're bullish on Difo, then that is even better package than the one supposedly for Stanton.

Wilmer Difo is not equivalent to Panik. At least, not yet. Panik for Gordon is probably fair, straight up, given Gordon's salary.

So in reality, this is like Fedde and Brian Goodwin for Stanton and that contract.
Seems like the marlins feel that they aren’t going to get much given stanton’s contract.
That's the initial offer. The Marlins will counter offer.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 8645
  • Team America 2017
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #360: November 21, 2017, 08:43:25 AM »
In what universe is Wilmer Difo equivalent to Joe Panik? Difo was alright this year (mostly defensively) but that's it. Panik didn't have a great year but offensively was way better than Difo and has a much longer track record.
Panik is better than Difo, but Fedde/Soto are combined higher rated than Beede/Shaw.

Offline Expos

  • Posts: 448
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #361: November 21, 2017, 08:56:46 AM »
Panik is better than Difo, but Fedde/Soto are combined higher rated than Beede/Shaw.

So Fedde, Difo/Soto and Taylor for the NL MVP.  Screw it. Go all in for Harper's last year.

LF- Stanton
CF- Eaton
RF- Harper

Yep. Looks good to me

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 23986
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #362: November 21, 2017, 09:38:29 AM »
Taylor in a package, Eaton in CF for a year, keeps Goodwin as insurance, and you have Eaton - Robles - Stanton for 2019 and after.  Sounds like a plan!

Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 9911
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #363: November 21, 2017, 09:38:47 AM »
Uh ... given the contract they're taking on, that's quite a bit. Panik for Gordon is probably good straight up, given the money dump. Beede is probably equivalent to Fedde at the beginning of the 2017 season. Shaw has power. Overall, it's a decent opening offer, given that the Giants would eat most of the salary.

Why sign a guy like that if it becomes a liability so quickly, anyways?  I read an article the other day that almost every mega-deal becomes a mistake/liabilty for the team a few years after the deal is done.  Given that reality, should we just let Harper walk?  I mean if Stanton is hardly worth anything signed to those huge dollars, why sign him in the first place?


Offline NatsAllThe Way

  • Posts: 9911
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #364: November 21, 2017, 09:41:44 AM »
So Fedde, Difo/Soto and Taylor for the NL MVP.  Screw it. Go all in for Harper's last year.

LF- Stanton
CF- Eaton
RF- Harper

Yep. Looks good to me

My goodness that lineup would be fearsome...

Turner
Eaton
Harper
Stanton
Murphy
Zimmerman
Rendon
Wieters (with epic bounceback year)

Where's my ring for sure! 


Or you could trade Eaton and a top prospect, etc....  for another top flight starter and play MAT in CF.

Where my ring is an absolute certainty!!

Offline NJ Ave

  • Posts: 3016
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #365: November 21, 2017, 10:20:36 AM »
We should go get Doug Fister back, right?

Offline aBaltoNat

  • Posts: 843
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #366: November 21, 2017, 10:23:35 AM »
So Fedde, Difo/Soto and Taylor for the NL MVP.  Screw it. Go all in for Harper's last year.

LF- Stanton
CF- Eaton
RF- Harper

Yep. Looks good to me

Seriously. If that's all it takes, would be awesome to get in on those talks.

Offline varoadking

  • Posts: 19312
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #367: November 21, 2017, 10:23:56 AM »
We should go get Doug Fister back, right?

..and Dan Haren...

Offline imref

  • Posts: 24362
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 2866
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #369: November 21, 2017, 01:14:51 PM »
Why sign a guy like that if it becomes a liability so quickly, anyways?  I read an article the other day that almost every mega-deal becomes a mistake/liabilty for the team a few years after the deal is done.  Given that reality, should we just let Harper walk?  I mean if Stanton is hardly worth anything signed to those huge dollars, why sign him in the first place?

The thinking is that since Harper is so young entering free agency, that a long term deal for him might not be such a boondoggle. For instance if we look at Miguel Cabrera, he signed an 8 year $152 million contract in 2008 when he was 25. That was the 4th biggest contract in history at the time. It's less than what Harper will get, but there has been significant inflation. If he had played out that contract it would have expired last year and the Tigers would have come out really well. But the problem was that they extended him when he was 31 and now its a franchise destroying contract. So Giving Bryce 8-10 years now isn't awful..

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 9047
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #370: November 21, 2017, 01:23:23 PM »
The thinking is that since Harper is so young entering free agency, that a long term deal for him might not be such a boondoggle. For instance if we look at Miguel Cabrera, he signed an 8 year $152 million contract in 2008 when he was 25. That was the 4th biggest contract in history at the time. It's less than what Harper will get, but there has been significant inflation. If he had played out that contract it would have expired last year and the Tigers would have come out really well. But the problem was that they extended him when he was 31 and now its a franchise destroying contract. So Giving Bryce 8-10 years now isn't awful..

On the other hand, in his five full seasons, in three of those he has played 118, 100, and 111 games. He is a proven significant injury risk. Sure, he could change that by changing his style of play.  But then he wouldn't be Bryce Harper.  I wouldn't take a chance on him.

Offline hotshot

  • Posts: 163
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #371: November 21, 2017, 01:24:20 PM »
I think South Florida disproportionately gets a big share of its Spanish-speaking immigrants from the parts of the Spanish-speaking world that play and follow baseball, not just Cuba. I think the issue is more that when people move to Florida from the rest of the United States, they've already got a favorite baseball team and aren't compelled to follow the Marlins.

I'm not aware of the Marlins ever failing to sell out a playoff game in 2003 or 1997. Win and all sorts of people will come. The University of Miami struggled with attendance for quite some time in the last decade, and now that they're undefeated you see an amazing array of folks at their home games. Everyone in Miami suddenly owns a turnover chain replica.

Substitute "DC area" and "Nats" for Florida and Marlins in the bolded sentence above and you've got a double truism.

Offline nfotiu

  • Posts: 1681
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #372: November 21, 2017, 01:45:19 PM »
My goodness that lineup would be fearsome...

Turner
Eaton
Harper
Stanton
Murphy
Zimmerman
Rendon
Wieters (with epic bounceback year)

Where's my ring for sure! 


Or you could trade Eaton and a top prospect, etc....  for another top flight starter and play MAT in CF.

Where my ring is an absolute certainty!!
Nah, if it's our last year of Harper, put him in as Catcher and Taylor at CF.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 24362
  • 1B: The New Hot Corner
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #373: November 21, 2017, 01:58:59 PM »
i was curious about Stanton's fielding ratings, here are his UZRs for the last 5 years (from 2017 down to 2012)
6.7
-1.4
8.6
1.6
- 7.8

How do you explain the lack of consistency?

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 41702
Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #374: November 21, 2017, 02:05:50 PM »
i was curious about Stanton's fielding ratings, here are his UZRs for the last 5 years (from 2017 down to 2012)
6.7
-1.4
8.6
1.6
- 7.8

How do you explain the lack of consistency?
UZR is really only useful over a 3+ year period. He's a good defender with a good arm. Nothing special. Could easily move him to LF.