Author Topic: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread  (Read 73269 times)

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Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1100: January 26, 2018, 09:13:32 AM »
Craig Mish@cbs:

"Realmuto is heading into his age-27 season and under team control through 2020. He hit .278/.332/.451 (109 OPS+) with 31 doubles, five triples, 17 homers and 65 RBI last season. He also threw out 32 percent of attempted base-stealers last season, which is five percent above league average.

He was one of the worst in baseball at framing, according to the available metrics, but overall we're talking about a very good catcher."

Any prospect but Robles and I'm pulling the trigger as fast as I can. It'll take more than Soto but that's likely just fine.
Realmuto's OPS+ in his age 25 and 26 season - 111 and 109.  Matt Wieters, same ages, OPS+ 110 and 107, with 2 golden gloves.

Wieters decline had a lot to do with injuries, so I'm not going to argue that Realmuto will be a disaster the next 5 years with injuries and decline on both sides of the plate. What I am saying (and I think most of you agree) is that a top 5 5 tool prospect in a position of need who has had a good MLB debut like Robles is out of the question.  The Marlins got Brinson in the Yelich deal so maybe they figure we'll come crawling to them, but that's not happening.  The tougher call for me is Soto. It's not an outrageous ask, but I like his statistical and scouting profile, and suspect he's going to jump into the top 20 prospects by mid-season as long as he's healthy.  That plate discipline and power is drool-worthy. I'd be OK with Wieters / Severino / Reed for this year.  I suspect Severino turns into Francisco Cervelli, which is fine.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1101: January 26, 2018, 10:04:07 AM »
I think that if Wieters even gets a dead cat bounce then that combined with replacing Lobaton means a significant increase in the quality of the catching on the Nats.

Offline Squab

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1102: January 26, 2018, 10:23:10 AM »
Fun fact on Realmuto, career splits:
Home .237/.280/.365
Away  .319/.360/.485

Offline Squab

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1103: January 26, 2018, 10:30:44 AM »
If we're truly not going to let Soto go, it seems like the Marlins would want to max out on younger, high risk talent.
Kieboom, Romero, Luis Garcia, and Yasel Antuna?
Maybe sub Daniel Johnson for one of the two younger guys.
I don't know, there's not really a headliner prospect in there, when compared to the Brewers haul. But Yelich is better and under control for two more years.

I'd love to capitalize on Michael Taylor's good season and get rid of him before he regresses, but then you have to play Goodwin in CF for 6 weeks until Robles comes up.

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1104: January 26, 2018, 10:37:41 AM »
Fun fact on Realmuto, career splits:
Home .237/.280/.365
Away  .319/.360/.485

Wonder what his numbers have been in Nats Park? Think some are overrating our prospects and underrating the trade target (which is the usual case for any fan base).

Switching to the Yelich trade, here's some info on the Brewers #1 prospect (Brinson) that the Marlins landed. Local Miami kid, btw. From today's Herald: "In six minor-league seasons, Brinson hit .287 with 89 home runs and 96 stolen bases. He made his major league debut in June with Milwaukee and hit .106 with a pair of homers in 47 at-bats."


Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1105: January 26, 2018, 10:57:16 AM »
Wonder what his numbers have been in Nats Park? Think some are overrating our prospects and underrating the trade target (which is the usual case for any fan base).
.286/.327/.449

104 PA, 2 HR, 11 RBI

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1106: January 26, 2018, 11:02:21 AM »
Wonder what his numbers have been in Nats Park? Think some are overrating our prospects and underrating the trade target (which is the usual case for any fan base).
Oh, I'll admit I over-rate Soto, if that means I have maybe undeserved high expectations for him.  I even said he's not an outrageous ask in a Realmuto deal. I'll go further and say any deal would be Soto plus a lot.  he's only a 50s level prospect in BA. Brinson just got moved for Yelich, and he's 13th.  Soto's probably closer to Harrison in that deal than Brinson.  If the deal were Soto, Romero, and a couple of Kieboom, Garcia, and Antuna, no one could kick about the value given up based on outside prospect raters. 

I just don't think the catching will keep us from winning the division. I just am pretty confident Soto is a stud. Power with a good eye and speed is a great combination; unless he's the 2d coming of Nick Johnson, that should lead to a quick ascent on prospect lists once there are graduations from the minors. If I have to move Soto, I'd rather do it at the trade deadline  when I suspect he'll be more valued and can be used to fill a need revealed during the season (3d starter, injured player). I view now as selling low coming off injuries in 2017 rather than cashing out before he busts.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1107: January 26, 2018, 11:05:01 AM »
I would not say he's not a top-5 catcher right now, but I would say that's probably only because the talent pool at catcher is pretty shallow right now.

I don't think we have an especially high value for linear wins right now, so I wouldn't trade Robles or Soto for him. While he's a substantial upgrade (probably 2-3 wins) t doesn't matter whether we are favored by 10 games or 12-13 games in the division really. And buying a guy for the postseason who (a) has never been in the postseason and (b) has terrible clutch stats...seems a little foolish. The guy almost linearly performs better the higher the lead for either team, and has an OPS split 132 points better when his team is ahead than when his team is behind.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=realmjt01&year=Career&t=b#clutc::none

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1108: January 26, 2018, 11:50:47 AM »
I would not say he's not a top-5 catcher right now, but I would say that's probably only because the talent pool at catcher is pretty shallow right now.

When has this NOT been the case though? Catcher is notoriously fielding/glove heavy. I mean, going back five years, anyone with above 2.5 WAR is an all star.

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1109: January 26, 2018, 12:11:41 PM »
I would not say he's not a top-5 catcher right now, but I would say that's probably only because the talent pool at catcher is pretty shallow right now.

I don't think we have an especially high value for linear wins right now, so I wouldn't trade Robles or Soto for him. While he's a substantial upgrade (probably 2-3 wins) t doesn't matter whether we are favored by 10 games or 12-13 games in the division really. And buying a guy for the postseason who (a) has never been in the postseason and (b) has terrible clutch stats...seems a little foolish. The guy almost linearly performs better the higher the lead for either team, and has an OPS split 132 points better when his team is ahead than when his team is behind.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=realmjt01&year=Career&t=b#clutc::none

If we don't get him, hope he lands out of our division. Especially not with the Mets.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1110: January 26, 2018, 02:21:25 PM »
When has this NOT been the case though? Catcher is notoriously fielding/glove heavy. I mean, going back five years, anyone with above 2.5 WAR is an all star.

This could certainly be true, but that also might explain why you rarely, if ever, see blockbuster trades for catchers. The distance between the Marlins in 5th place for catcher WAR, and the Diamondbacks in 23rd, was 2.5 wins. In CF the difference between 5th and 23rd is 4.9 wins. There is a big difference between having no CF and acquiring Charlie Blackmon, and having no C and acquiring JT Realmuto.

Offline NationalHeat

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1111: January 26, 2018, 02:35:19 PM »
Marlins board is working themselves into a tizzy thinking theyll get Soto, Kieboom, Severino and MAT

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1112: January 26, 2018, 02:43:19 PM »
Marlins board is working themselves into a tizzy thinking theyll get Soto, Kieboom, Severino and MAT

I'm surprised they still have fans at this point. Those that remain are gluttons for (more) punishment I guess.

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1113: January 26, 2018, 04:45:51 PM »
Quote
Pete Kerzel
@masnPete
The only way the Nationals are going to get J.T. Realmuto is for the Marlins to be willing to move off Victor Robles/Juan Soto and accept a package of prospects. And I'm hearing Marlins may be willing to do so.

Offline raleighnat

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1114: January 26, 2018, 04:59:48 PM »
I would not say he's not a top-5 catcher right now, but I would say that's probably only because the talent pool at catcher is pretty shallow right now.

I don't think we have an especially high value for linear wins right now, so I wouldn't trade Robles or Soto for him. While he's a substantial upgrade (probably 2-3 wins) t doesn't matter whether we are favored by 10 games or 12-13 games in the division really. And buying a guy for the postseason who (a) has never been in the postseason and (b) has terrible clutch stats...seems a little foolish. The guy almost linearly performs better the higher the lead for either team, and has an OPS split 132 points better when his team is ahead than when his team is behind.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=realmjt01&year=Career&t=b#clutc::none

I think that's very well said.  Linear wins don't seem to be the issue though he would be a really nice upgrade.  If I were to burn some prospects I would be going after a starter to give us depth and start game three in a playoff series.  That has more value to me than an upgrade over Weiters and Severino.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1115: January 26, 2018, 07:30:11 PM »
I think that if Wieters even gets a dead cat bounce then that combined with replacing Lobaton means a significant increase in the quality of the catching on the Nats.

He really got worn down last year so maybe he has a hot start for 6-8 weeks. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1116: January 26, 2018, 11:32:30 PM »


I mean, if he pulls that off, Rizzo is the GOAT

Offline Expos

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1117: January 27, 2018, 12:11:04 AM »


Oh it's happening. Rizzo is a genius

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1118: January 28, 2018, 12:05:42 PM »
Offer Severino and Kieboom and see what happens. Add in a lower-regarded pitcher if need be.

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1119: January 28, 2018, 07:39:14 PM »
Offer Severino and Kieboom and see what happens. Add in a lower-regarded pitcher if need be.

Given what the got for Yelich, that isn’t enough. But given what they got for Yelich, Robles and Soto are likely too much. If that makes any sense. I think Rizzo gets it done.

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1120: January 28, 2018, 07:41:57 PM »
Also, do you think that anytime the Nats pursue a trade that the team just automatically asks for Robles, regardless of who Rizzo is looking to acquire. That seems to be where all negotiations start.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1121: January 28, 2018, 07:52:04 PM »
The elephant in the room is the $10.5m that the Nats owe Wieters. They owed Pap a bit less than that, and let him work a half a season despite declining performance and that whole choke-a-Harper thing. I don’t see them dumping Wieters and I don’t see either him or Realmuto being a backup. So what do they do with Wieters?

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1122: January 28, 2018, 07:57:44 PM »
The elephant in the room is the $10.5m that the Nats owe Wieters. They owed Pap a bit less than that, and let him work a half a season despite declining performance and that whole choke-a-Harper thing. I don’t see them dumping Wieters and I don’t see either him or Realmuto being a backup. So what do they do with Wieters?

High paid (and well rested) backup C, and bat off the bench.

Online bluestreak

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1123: January 28, 2018, 08:30:17 PM »
I was looking at the Marlins forum. It’s a great example of how all fans over value their players. Some of them are saying Realmuto should bring back Robles AND Soto PLUS additional prospects. In my opinion that is insanity, but maybe I’m as crazy as they are.

https://www.marlinsbaseball.com/topic/76380-realmuto-trade-rumors/?page=6

Offline hotshot

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Re: 2017-2018 Off-season Discussion Thread
« Reply #1124: January 28, 2018, 08:50:08 PM »
One of those teaser sites (where you have to pay to read the whole article) is throwing out MAT's name as a possibility for inclusion.