What Are Our Chances?

[WashingtonWizards23]

^ troll

[UMDNats]

Cubs fans:

"It's so cute to see your team compete! What a fun series! You have some dandy players. Maybe one day you can make it to the NLCS like the big boys!"

(this is not directed at the previous poster, just Cubs fans in general)

[rbw5t]

Our chances of advancing are 25%.  But, if we lose today, our chances go down to 0%.  If we're able to win, then our chances will increase to 50%.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

^ troll

We know you.  Your English has gotten better over the years for a high school girl from overseas.

polabonez - They say Tanner had a light switch go on in Harrisburg when he simplified his pitches and focused on the sinker. 

The weather makes me wonder about how much the Cubs will use Arrieta.  If this game is a stop-start one, I don't expect him to come back after his first stint, and I wonder if it makes sense for him to go at all given the conditions, the lead in the series, and  his hammy.

[bluestreak]

Per 538 39% chance of winning today, 22% chance of winning the series.

[polabonez]

We know you.  Your English has gotten better over the years for a high school girl from overseas.

polabonez - They say Tanner had a light switch go on in Harrisburg when he simplified his pitches and focused on the sinker. 

The weather makes me wonder about how much the Cubs will use Arrieta.  If this game is a stop-start one, I don't expect him to come back after his first stint, and I wonder if it makes sense for him to go at all given the conditions, the lead in the series, and  his hammy.

CrystalCity- I wouldn't know that... I'll admit I did not follow him much as a pro/doubleA/TripleA because obviously I never really could watch those games.  I'm talking Tee Ball Tanner and little league Tanner, I used to umpire the games..... And from there....  High School Tanner. He was a great athlete in football and baseball.  I'm sure every pro is, but its different - We are over an hour south of Chicago, so while you might think of skyscrapers and gang violence, it is just a collection of little towns strung together within 10 miles of each other that have 1000-5000 pop.   You know all the kids growing up here if you have kids or family that plays the game.... And every 10 years or so, one stands out as our next hopeful to get a gig playing college ball.  Around here you don't think "hes the next professional pitcher" unless you live much further north in the 6A Schools.  We have to go out and knock on doors in my parents hometown to make sure we can field a bronco league team.   It's just small town south of the big city life, I guess. 

But it's bittersweet nonetheless.  Belive me when I say that I am hoping, maybe not as much as you all, but maybe a little bit more in a different sense, that he throws a gem tonight.

[mdnatsfan]

You have a better chance of navigating an asteroid field than having this effing team win another postseason game.

[NatsAllThe Way]

You have a better chance of navigating an asteroid field than having this effing team win another postseason game.

(Image removed from quote.)

The we need Harrison Ford to make a cameo as our manager tonight.

[varoadking]

Per 538 39% chance of winning today, 22% chance of winning the series.

78% chance of Brutus the Buckeye... 

[spidernat]

You have a better chance of navigating an asteroid field than having this effing team win another postseason game.

(Image removed from quote.)

[mdnatsfan]

Hans dead. C3PO lives on.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But it's bittersweet nonetheless.  Belive me when I say that I am hoping, maybe not as much as you all, but maybe a little bit more in a different sense, that he throws a gem tonight.

don't worry too much.  If there's one thing the Nats have proven this series, it is that they can waste a gem of a start!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The we need Harrison Ford to make a cameo as our manager tonight.

he could fly in. . . or maybe not.

[beatdrum]

Cubs fans:

"It's so cute to see your team compete! What a fun series! You have some dandy players. Maybe one day you can make it to the NLCS like the big boys!"

(this is not directed at the previous poster, just Cubs fans in general)

This! This! So much, this!

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Arrieta is not close to peak form and our bats are due to come alive.  I think we scratch out 4 or 5 runs, get to Lackey a little as well, and send it back to DC.  Roark will give us 5 innings of 2 run ball, which will be enough.  Albers takes the 6th, Kintzler the 7th, Madson the 8th, and Doo closes. 

[mmzznnxx]

Arrieta is not close to peak form and our bats are due to come alive.  I think we scratch out 4 or 5 runs, get to Lackey a little as well, and send it back to DC.  Roark will give us 5 innings of 2 run ball, which will be enough.  Albers takes the 6th, Kintzler the 7th, Madson the 8th, and Doo closes.

Arrieta doesn't need to be close to peak form to shutout these bums. Bats due, lol. Casinos must love you.

[bluestreak]

Arrieta doesn't need to be close to peak form to shutout these bums. Bats due, lol. Casinos must love you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

[dshawg77]

Tanner Roark with the season on the line and no Howie Kendrick?

I honestly am scared to watch the game.

[captkirk42]

Maybe if we can avoid the 3 blind fielders syndrome from last night. UGH.

[imref]

Much better than they were. 

[The Chief]

In case no one's said it yet:

50/50, they either win or they don't.

[mitlen]

In case no one's said it yet:

50/50, they either win or they don't.

That's why you're the Chief.

[Optics]

DC teams are 0-12 in their last 12 chances at going to the Final Four of their sport. Pretty absurd. Streak's gotta end sometime right?

...right?

[spidernat]

DC teams are 0-12 in their last 12 chances at going to the Final Four of their sport. Pretty absurd. Streak's gotta end sometime right?

...right?

That number seems high. I can't think of 12 chances.

[mitlen]

That number seems high. I can't think of 12 chances.

Maybe including G'town and MD.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/dc-sports-bog/wp/2017/10/12/the-dumbest-streak-in-sports-might-actually-end-tonight/?utm_term=.f363471a65cd