Author Topic: Beating the Cubs  (Read 31794 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline spidernat

  • Posts: 76956
  • The Lerners are Cheap AND Crooked
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #275: October 08, 2017, 05:14:05 PM »

Offline bluestreak

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 11259
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #276: October 08, 2017, 05:16:19 PM »
I hate to break it to you but he likely will be.  He's good friends with Bryant.

I imagine he has good friends on the Nats roster. We should forget trying to predict where he will end up. My hope is that the Nats don’t let him walk due to money.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5707
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #277: October 08, 2017, 05:17:29 PM »
I hate to break it to you but he likely will be.  He's good friends with Bryant.

And that matters why exactly? Cubs would have to pay, which would limit them with Bryant. These new Cubs already have Heyward and his awful deal, so I think they will make a bid, but not as big as the Yankees or, hopefully, the Nats. I just don't see Nats ownership letting him walk without a competitive offer.

Offline mitlen

  • Posts: 66171
  • We had 'em all the way.
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #278: October 08, 2017, 05:18:03 PM »
Perhaps worth noting, perhaps worth nothing: Ryan Zimmerman hasn't been on the field for the Nats workout today.

I didn't like the way he bottomed out on that dive into third last night.

Offline mitlen

  • Posts: 66171
  • We had 'em all the way.
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #279: October 08, 2017, 05:18:38 PM »
I hate to break it to you but he likely will be.  He's good friends with Bryant.

He's better friends with Benjamin.

Offline mitlen

  • Posts: 66171
  • We had 'em all the way.
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #280: October 08, 2017, 05:32:07 PM »
Odds are in his favor at this point...

Why does that remind me of "Up On Cripple Creek"?

Offline mitlen

  • Posts: 66171
  • We had 'em all the way.
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #281: October 08, 2017, 05:33:25 PM »
I imagine he has good friends on the Nats roster. We should forget trying to predict where he will end up. My hope is that the Nats don’t let him walk due to money.

If we ever quit predictin' things, Chief will have to shut this site down.

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 25619
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #282: October 08, 2017, 05:36:35 PM »
Why does that remind me of "Up On Cripple Creek"?
He had em 5 to 1. Or was it 9 to 1.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5707
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #283: October 08, 2017, 05:59:50 PM »
Why would it limit them with Bryant?  There is no rule that says a team can't have $60-$65M/year tied up between 2 All-Stars.

But Harper is likely getting 40 Million a year and Bryant even with four years of arbitration likely will break the arb record his first time through. If he stays healthy it will get spendy really quick, and toss into Heyward and his immovable 21 a year, plus Lester for at least two years at roughly 23 million, and it's not 65 million for two players, it's 100+ million for four. Tack on those other guys about to hit arb as well, it's like the Nats in 2012 forward. Those good pieces that are cheap won't stay cheap for long, so unless you have a farm system that will keep pushing out prospects that are very good to elite, it's hard to keep that money wrapped up in a few players. The Angels, Giants, and Old Yankees are perfect example of this.

The Nats have a good roster moving forward, with a cheap OF in Eaton, a young elite prospect CF in Robles, a steady, and still pre-arb SS in Turner, an anchor at 1B, and hopefully a step in 2B in Difo (also cheap) and some trade chips to move for controllable pitching or a 3B replacement when Rendon leaves. Heck, maybe Soto brings back a 3B or Kieboom turns into that guy. I think the Nats have a more compelling argument to keep Harper and given the way the ownership likes to spend, they would be more likely to open up to thier big money draw, Boras client.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5707
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #284: October 08, 2017, 08:24:31 PM »
Lester's contract ends when Bryant's new massive contract will begin. Those essentially cancel each other out.  So I'm not sure why you're factoring that in.  Yes Bryant will get some arb paydays, I doubt very much Cubs are worried about that.  You realize Cubs are a massive market right?  I get the feeling you're under the assumption that we have more money than they do.  That would be false.

Harper won't get $40M.  I would expect somewhere around $35M with an opt out clause after 3/4 years, and a no trade clause.

For at least two years of Lester plus Harper and at least 10+ million to Bryant, plus Rizzo is a lot of money. Sure, Lester comes off the books, but the Cubs have traded nearly all their prospects and their core is still young and will cost them moving forward. While they are a huge market, Theo isn't running them like the Dodgers. I just don't see a Harper fit their with how dollar conscious the leadership is.

Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, and Nats. They make sense to roll out a contract like that. If you think Harper isn't getting 400 million, you are mistaken. Also, this team has paid for big name Boras clients, so what makes you think that Harper would be any different? Essentially the Nats have Scherzer, Strasburg (of he doesn't opt out), and Zimmerman on the books as big dollar names. Eaton and Turner are cheap. The bullpen isn't making a ton of money. Robles is cheap. There is more money than you admit, but that doesn't mean the Nats pay the most, but I expect it to be a high number. Harper only stays here if the team around him is still competitive.

Offline Mathguy

  • Posts: 9162
  • Floyd - Truely Man's best Friend
    • Outer Banks Beach House
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #285: October 08, 2017, 09:39:53 PM »
Nor should he be

I still don't believe Werth will be benched by Rizzo and Baker.

Offline Mattionals

  • Posts: 5707
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #286: October 08, 2017, 10:30:52 PM »
I see a lot of wishful thinking.  I can't blame you, none of us want to lose Harper.

But you're contradicting yourself.  You say Cubs have traded away all their prospects, yes they have.  What does that mean?  That means they only get better by paying money in Free Agency.  I read somewhere recently that after this season, Cubs payroll will be under $100M.  They have a A LOT, A LOT of cash available.  They have all their young guys locked up through 2021, 2022.  The trade for Quintana means they don't have to go spend big bucks on a pitcher right now.

Harper isn't playing for the Phillies.  Red Sox, Yanks, Dodgers are already above or very well near the luxury tax.  That leaves the Cubs.

Next year does not matter. 2019 is year two of arbitration for Bryant. Add that to year 1 of Arbitration for Baez and Schwarber. Lester still makes 27 million that season. So that payroll grows to over 100 million and the Cubs still need more pitching than Lester, Quintana, Hendricks and Edwards. I would say you are right if Heyward wasn't there, but spending 40 a year on Harper limits what they can do. Quintana is also gone after 2020 so they need to fill the rotation holes.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63061
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #287: October 08, 2017, 10:48:23 PM »
Epstein will just reload his farm system through international signings. And the Cubs have crap tons of money.

Offline bluestreak

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 11259
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #288: October 08, 2017, 11:06:38 PM »
Weather in Chicago doesn’t look great for Tuesday (or Wednesday). Do rainouts help the Nats?

Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9233
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #289: October 08, 2017, 11:16:48 PM »
Weather in Chicago doesn’t look great for Tuesday (or Wednesday). Do rainouts help the Nats?

I think so. Extra rest for Scherzer. I'm not convinced he's 100%.

Offline bluestreak

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 11259
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #290: October 09, 2017, 12:27:05 AM »
In case anyone was yearning for the Korean Call of Bryce and Zim’s homers. The color commentary is provided by Hee-Seop Choi.

https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/916997949019766784

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63061
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #291: October 09, 2017, 04:44:58 AM »
Weather in Chicago doesn’t look great for Tuesday (or Wednesday). Do rainouts help the Nats?
The only way it helps is if the Nats win Game 3, and game 4 is pushed to Thursday. Hedricks goes Thursday and the Nats aren't facing him in Game 5.

Offline Mathguy

  • Posts: 9162
  • Floyd - Truely Man's best Friend
    • Outer Banks Beach House
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #292: October 09, 2017, 05:02:48 AM »
But where does Arrieta factor in here ?  May still see Hendricks in a game 5

The only way it helps is if the Nats win Game 3, and game 4 is pushed to Thursday. Hedricks goes Thursday and the Nats aren't facing him in Game 5.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #293: October 09, 2017, 06:48:35 AM »
Scherzer is pitching on Monday.  Rain on Tuesday has nothing to do with him.
Rain on Tuesday pushes game 5 to Friday. It also pushes game 4 to Wednesday.  Strasburg could pitch game 4 on normal rest and if it goes to game 5, Scherzer on short rest.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63061
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #294: October 09, 2017, 07:12:30 AM »
Rain on Tuesday pushes game 5 to Friday. It also pushes game 4 to Wednesday.  Strasburg could pitch game 4 on normal rest and if it goes to game 5, Scherzer on short rest.

Why would it push back Game 5? They'll just use the travel day, like they did last year.

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #295: October 09, 2017, 07:14:23 AM »
There is zero chance of rain today, but a fair-to-good chance tomorrow. 

Offline Ray D

  • Posts: 10073
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #296: October 09, 2017, 07:16:14 AM »
Why would it push back Game 5? They'll just use the travel day, like they did last year.
Rain in DC Thursday!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 39277
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #297: October 09, 2017, 11:58:17 AM »
Rain in DC Thursday!
bowser gonna put on an emergency roof!

Offline Optics

  • Posts: 9233
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #298: October 09, 2017, 12:23:05 PM »
Getting back to the topic of beating the Cubs, we really need Turner to start getting on. Hard to sustain offense with chained hits when your leadoff man is 0-fer and striking out constantly.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 63061
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Beating the Cubs
« Reply #299: October 09, 2017, 12:53:37 PM »