Author Topic: Postseason Starting Rotation  (Read 6119 times)

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #75: October 04, 2017, 09:53:29 AM »
But if he goes game 2, he and Stras could take 3 innings each game 5.

Wouldn't Stras be the Game 5 starter???

Offline Ray D

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #76: October 04, 2017, 09:56:52 AM »
So I guess the lesson from last night is that this discussion is moot and that starting pitching is overrated?
I'm not sure last night proved much but the discussion this morning on MLB XM went a long way towards persuading me.  Statistics show that third time through the lineup offensive production increases dramatically and so the trend is going to be 5-6 innings for a starter.  So the relief pitcher, and especially long and  mid relief, becomes much more important and starter correspondingly less.  The question then becomes why do we pay a guy $30M to go 5 innings?  And the answer is, we won't be seeing that any longer.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #77: October 04, 2017, 10:11:31 AM »
I'm not sure last night proved much but the discussion this morning on MLB XM went a long way towards persuading me.  Statistics show that third time through the lineup offensive production increases dramatically and so the trend is going to be 5-6 innings for a starter.  So the relief pitcher, and especially long and  mid relief, becomes much more important and starter correspondingly less.  The question then becomes why do we pay a guy $30M to go 5 innings?  And the answer is, we won't be seeing that any longer.

You pay the starters for the regular season. You can’t win in the playoffs if you don’t make it. Bullpen importance takes on more importance in the playoffs.  You can’t have your starters going 3 and 4 innings on a regular basis over 162 games. It would kill the pen.

Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #78: October 04, 2017, 10:48:51 AM »
Max and Stras are dominant and you fully expect 7 innings if not more from them in the postseason.  Gio and Roark on the other hand...I can see a much quicker hook with them and then playing a bullpen matchup game.  I'd be happy with 5 strong innings of 2 runs or less from them.  I'd take 3 runs or less in 5 innings. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #79: October 04, 2017, 11:10:24 AM »
Max and Stras are dominant and you fully expect 7 innings if not more from them in the postseason.  Gio and Roark on the other hand...I can see a much quicker hook with them and then playing a bullpen matchup game.  I'd be happy with 5 strong innings of 2 runs or less from them.  I'd take 3 runs or less in 5 innings. 

Strasburg has gone 5 innings in one playoff start.

You're going to lose if you expect any of your SP to go more than 6 innings in the playoffs.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #80: October 04, 2017, 11:23:50 AM »
Strasburg has gone 5 innings in one playoff start.


Talk about small sample size...

Offline spidernat

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #81: October 04, 2017, 11:52:20 AM »
I want my starters to pitch into the 7th inning.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #82: October 04, 2017, 11:55:31 AM »
Talk about small sample size...
It's assine to expect your starter to go more than 6 innings in a playoff game in the current era of baseball. Is that better?

The majority of starts are going to fall into the 5-6 inning range, even for your so called aces. That's all you can hope for really. That's why bullpens are so freaking crucial. Last year, the Cubs big three (Arrietta, Lester, and Hendricks) made 14 starts in the postseason. Three went for more than 6 innings. Kershaw has made 14 starts in the playoffs. 3 times he went 7 innings or more. Kluber has 6 starts and only one of them has he gone 7 innings.

The 2015 Mets probably had the best, with their staff making 14 starts, with five going for seven innings or more.

It's simply not normal in the playoffs. Too much goes into every pitch and every at bat. So depending on your top two starters to go 7 innings or more is essentially betting on failure.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #83: October 04, 2017, 11:56:12 AM »
I want my starters to pitch into the 7th inning.
And I want Ryan Zimmerman to hit ten home runs. Let's face reality. And the reality is that going past the sixth inning in a playoff game is a rarity and shouldn't be counted on as a strategy.

Offline monkeyhit

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #84: October 04, 2017, 12:04:16 PM »
I want a team and manager that will pull its "ace" starter after giving up 3 first inning runs and then go on to score a boatload of runs in support of its strong relievers.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #85: October 04, 2017, 12:14:40 PM »
I want a team and manager that will pull its "ace" starter after giving up 3 first inning runs and then go on to score a boatload of runs in support of its strong relievers.
Have to have a bullpen that can pitch 8 innings of one run ball first

Offline Ray D

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #86: October 04, 2017, 12:16:44 PM »
I want a team and manager that will pull its "ace" starter after giving up 3 first inning
I don't know about just "giving up 3 first inning runs", but giving up 3 first inning runs and putting the next two on base, all with still no outs, yes.

Offline whytev

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #87: October 04, 2017, 12:29:41 PM »
Wouldn't Stras be the Game 5 starter???

Either/or.

Offline Ray D

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #88: October 04, 2017, 12:45:43 PM »
Either/or.
Assuming Max starts game 2, I think we'll see both Max and Stras in game 5.

Offline whytev

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #89: October 04, 2017, 01:22:17 PM »
Assuming Max starts game 2, I think we'll see both Max and Stras in game 5.

That's exactly what I said.

Offline dcpatti

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #90: October 04, 2017, 01:27:22 PM »
All the usual reporters are tweeting that Max played catch, looked good, but did not throw a bullpen session, which they speculate might indicate he's probably going to get Game 3 instead of Game 2. No conjecture about whether this would be due to his hamstring or because of the potential matchup.  Cubs have announced their rotation as Hendricks, Lester, Quintana, Arrieta. 

 

Offline dcpatti

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #91: October 04, 2017, 01:34:49 PM »
BTW here are Gio's career numbers against the current Cubs:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez  (spoiler alert: they're batting a combined  .198)

They're .206 against Max http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28976/max-scherzer
.257 against Stras http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/30373/stephen-strasburg
.221 against Tanner http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/31593/tanner-roark


Us against Quintana (.250 over a very small sample size http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32106/jose-quintana)
.232 against Lester although i feel like we kinda own him this year, which isn't reflected in the numbers  http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28487/jon-lester
.217 against Hendricks http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33173/kyle-hendricks
.246 against Arietta http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/30145/jake-arrieta


Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #92: October 04, 2017, 01:37:31 PM »
It's assine to expect your starter to go more than 6 innings in a playoff game in the current era of baseball. Is that better?

The majority of starts are going to fall into the 5-6 inning range, even for your so called aces. That's all you can hope for really. That's why bullpens are so freaking crucial. Last year, the Cubs big three (Arrietta, Lester, and Hendricks) made 14 starts in the postseason. Three went for more than 6 innings. Kershaw has made 14 starts in the playoffs. 3 times he went 7 innings or more. Kluber has 6 starts and only one of them has he gone 7 innings.

The 2015 Mets probably had the best, with their staff making 14 starts, with five going for seven innings or more.

It's simply not normal in the playoffs. Too much goes into every pitch and every at bat. So depending on your top two starters to go 7 innings or more is essentially betting on failure.

We'll have a bullpen full of guys to pitch if he doesn't go 6 or 7.  WTF is your point?  Just more nonsense.  You have got to be the most obnoxious poster in the history of message boards.

Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #93: October 04, 2017, 01:39:23 PM »
Either/or.

I meant that Stras would start Game 5 and would be expected to pitch a normal amount of innings versus 3 from him and 3 from Max like mentioned above.  Max would be an awesome guy to have available to use at some point the way LA did with Kershaw.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #94: October 04, 2017, 01:44:38 PM »
BTW here are Gio's career numbers against the current Cubs:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez  (spoiler alert: they're batting a combined  .198)

They're .206 against Max http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28976/max-scherzer
.257 against Stras http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/30373/stephen-strasburg
.221 against Tanner http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/31593/tanner-roark


Us against Quintana (.250 over a very small sample size http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32106/jose-quintana)
.232 against Lester although i feel like we kinda own him this year, which isn't reflected in the numbers  http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28487/jon-lester
.217 against Hendricks http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/33173/kyle-hendricks
.246 against Arietta http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/30145/jake-arrieta


Weird, it's almost like both teams have excellent starting pitching.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #95: October 04, 2017, 01:46:48 PM »
We'll have a bullpen full of guys to pitch if he doesn't go 6 or 7.  WTF is your point?  Just more nonsense.  You have got to be the most obnoxious poster in the history of message boards.
My point is that expecting your starter to go 7 is stupid and anyone saying you should "fully expect" a starter to go 7 innings in the playoffs shows a lack of understanding about baseball, particularly in the last five years.

Sorry logic and history are obnoxious. It's better than being freaking stupid.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #96: October 04, 2017, 02:28:08 PM »
We'll have a bullpen full of guys to pitch if he doesn't go 6 or 7.  WTF is your point?  Just more nonsense.  You have got to be the most obnoxious poster in the history of message boards.

This is a bit much, and nobody would ever confuse me with s Slate Fan. The internet is awful.

Online Mathguy

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #97: October 04, 2017, 02:36:30 PM »
No it's not.  What if the starter is still right on target and strong ?  And not even Matt Williams would pull a starter if the starter has pitcher a no-hitter.

It's assine to expect your starter to go more than 6 innings in a playoff game in the current era of baseball. Is that better?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #98: October 04, 2017, 02:51:08 PM »
No it's not.  What if the starter is still right on target and strong ?  And not even Matt Williams would pull a starter if the starter has pitcher a no-hitter.

Then you let him pitch. But it's asinine before a series starts to say you fully expect not one, but two starting pitchers to go 7 innings when, historically, that's a rarity.

You get five or six innings of great pitching and you take it as a gift.

Offline lylelgreen

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Re: Postseason Starting Rotation
« Reply #99: October 04, 2017, 03:22:28 PM »
Weird, it's almost like both teams have excellent starting pitching.

According to @MooneyNBCS
#Cubs playoff rotation vs. #Nationals: Hendricks, Lester, Quintana, Arrieta.